National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KAPX 181753
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
153 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers move in late this morning and afternoon.

- More widespread rain expected overnight.

- Rain and snow showers possible Friday night into Saturday.

- Quiet weather through the weekend before precip chances return
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

12z surface/composite analysis shows a 1009mb over northeast
Ontario...surface reflection of a short wave trough lifting
northeast away from the upper Lakes...southeast of an occluding
low over southeast Manitoba. Associated cold/occluded front arcs
east then south across western Upper/Wisconsin. Upper level low
spinning across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a 110kt jet
streak to its southeast...with short wave ridging/height rises
into Wisconsin/ Michigan. Low clouds across much of the state at
mid morning with some breaks across central Upper into
northwest Lower. Area of rain extends from Iowa/northern
Missouri northeast into parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois...
within an area of warm advection and strong frontogenesis. Good
deal of low clouds across eastern Upper/lower Michigan at mid
morning though some breaks in the clouds in spots. Mid/high
clouds across western Upper/Wisconsin. Some drizzle earlier as
well across northern Lower though that has let up. 12z APX
sounding saturated below about 840mb and dries out above.

Afternoon should be generally on the cloudy side as mid level radar
returns spread in from the west.  Some rain chances this afternoon
especially south of M-32 with better probabilities for rain across
the forecast area tonight. Afternoon highs mostly in the 50s...
cooler near the big lakes where onshore flow occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Weakening low pressure currently centered over the northern Great
Lakes will continue to spin northeast of the region today as much
stronger troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest and overhead
by tonight. The associated surface cyclone will slide east across
Ontario today as an attendant cold front works across northern
Michigan this evening into tonight.

Forecast Details:

Light rain will continue across portions of far northern lower near
the Straits and the eastern U.P. over the next few hours before
moving out around sunrise. A lull in rain chances is in store
through the rest of the morning before additional scattered showers
look to move in from southwest to northeast by early afternoon.
Rainfall is anticipated to be light with this round of showers with
accumulations likely being limited to a few hundredths of an inch
for most locations. Otherwise, close to average temperatures are
expected this afternoon as highs warm into the low to mid 50s for
most areas. Places near Saginaw Bay look to get into the upper 50s
today.

Another break in rain chances is expected during the late
afternoon/early evening hours ahead of more widespread rain moving
in this evening and tonight. Highest confidence in steadiest
rainfall lies across the southeastern half of the CWA where totals
of 0.25" to 0.50" are expected for most areas. Lesser amounts are
expected with northwest extent away from Saginaw Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel large scale troughing currently over Central Canada with
upstream ridging over the Northwest territories and a second trough
over the northern Pacific forms an Omega blocking pattern for the
entirety of the long term period. This pattern supports a cooler air
mass and an overall quiet weather pattern for the Great Lakes region
besides occasional chances of precip from lingering moisture and
embedded height disturbances.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Rain and snow showers remain possible Friday night into Saturday.
Weather remains quiet for the majority of the long term period until
precipitation chances return next Tuesday: Current embedded
weakening troughing with attached surface low pressure will continue
to progress northeast and make its way to the Maine coastline at the
start of the long term period. Lingering low level moisture will
continue scattered showers as embedded height disturbances progress
across the state Friday night into Saturday. Little to no measurable
precipitation is expected but with cooling overnight temperatures
near freezing level, snowfall will mix into showers for parts of
northern lower and eastern upper. A general dusting of snowfall
accumulations remain possible for interior areas by Saturday morning.

Troughing attached to the aformentioned longwave over central Canada
progresses southward returning precipitation the to the Great Lakes
region around the Tuesday timeframe. Too far out to message details,
but will be motoring this feature with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions to start this forecast cycle...
with Sc clouds hanging on around KCIU/KPLN/KAPN and mid clouds
at KMBL/KTVC. Eventually expect improvement to VFR at KCIU/KPLN...
KAPN more likely to remain predominantly MVFR. Rain moves into
starting this evening ahead a cold/occluded front...precip
window looks to be around 6-8 hours. Some MVFR visibilities with
the precipitation but as main precipitation moves out there is
a decent signal for low MVFR/IFR ceilings developing in the
04-14z time frame.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JPB