Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KAPX 230632

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
232 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, nrn Michigan is on the backside of upper
troughing over the eastern conus. Sfc high pressure centered over
north central Canada extends southward through the western Great
Lakes and into the nrn Gulf of Mexico. The air mass remains on the
dry side with PWATS around 0.25", but there was an easily
identifiable shortwave/closed low aloft seen on satellite imagery,
swirling and dropping SE down the backside of the upper troughing
into nrn Lake Huron. This wave was resulting in some higher level
cloud cover from Whitefish Bay into NE lower Michigan. There was
also a sfc trough/cold front draped from srn Quebec through the nrn
Great Lakes and into Ontario. Very quiet weather for us.

Hardly any change in the weather for today and tonight. The
aforementioned wave/closed low presses through the eastern Great
Lakes this morning, and will be followed by another weaker wave for
tonight. The air mass will remain moisture-starved, actually
becoming slightly drier today. There is just no moisture coming in
with these waves that are originating in nrn Canada. Skies will
continue to be rather clear. The only thing to look for will be the
small possibility of some lake cloud generation in northerly flow
regimes. This may occur as the sfc troughing/cold front sags into
nrn Michigan toward daybreak and into this morning, behind the
departing circulation/wave aloft. 925mb temperatures drop to around
-10C, more than sufficient for shallow overlake instability. A
similar set up will be in place for late tonight into Saturday
morning. The dry air may overpower any moisture flux however.

Not much change in temperatures either. Highs today in the low 30s
north to the upper 30s south. Lows tonight generally around 10F in
eastern upper to the teens most areas in nrn lower.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Quiet weather this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Primary driver to northern Michigan`s sensible
weather will be strong/expansive surface high pressure drifting
across southern Canada into the far northern tier of the CONUS into
the start of next week. Only feature to note will be a potent
shortwave set to dive from the northern plains through the upper
Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday with the only
challenge locally perhaps being a slight uptick in cloud cover
across far southern parts of the forecast area.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Cloud cover/temps trends.

Quiet weather is anticipated through the forecast period as
aforementioned high pressure drifts across the region through early
next week. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected to prevail with
high temperatures continuing to be a few degrees below late-March
normals. High temps Saturday ranging from near freezing across
eastern upper to the upper 30s south of M-72. Tack on a few degrees
area-wide Sunday with many locations along and south of M-72 topping
40 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Primary issue for the extended period is a system moving through the
region in the first part of next week. Tuesday looks to be the best
chance for precipitation right now, with some slower guidance
resulting in blended PoPs getting strung out a bit into Wednesday.
Temperatures will run above normal heading through mid-week, though
overnight temps could get cool enough to see some snow mix in.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

A disturbance aloft with some higher level cloud will exit the
region this morning. An associated moisture-starved sfc trough/cold
front will lay out over nrn Michigan this morning. There is a small
chance for some MVFR lake cloud around APN due to shallow overlake
instability. There will be a similar set up for late Friday night
into Saturday morning. Odds are that the air mass will be too dry
for this lake induced cloud. Northerly winds generally at or below
10kts through the period.


Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Winds are generally expected to remain below advisory criteria
through Saturday morning, before chances increase a bit for low end
advisory speeds later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. The
pressure gradient tightens more significantly Sunday night into
Monday, and there is a pretty good chance headlines will be needed.
This all occurs out ahead of a low pressure system that will likely
bring rain Monday night through Tuesday night, with maybe some snow
mixing in at night.




MARINE...SMD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.