Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1112 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Little to no adjustments to the forecast tonight. A slowly
departing higher level cloud shield will lead to a mostly
clear/clear skies, while sfc winds continue to lighten up (many
areas have gone calm already). Temperatures will tumble a little
faster with the clearing, and the developing good radiational
cooling conditions will lead to lows in the teens in most areas.
Low 20s in coastal areas of nrn lower.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Dry and seasonal conditions persist...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep upper level trough remains over
the Great Lakes region; however, the heights are steadily on the
rise by midday Thursday. Closer to the surface high pressure
continues to influence the sensible weather over the region, and
keeping dry weather with slightly sub-seasonal temperatures for
Northern Lower Michigan and far eastern Upper Peninsula.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Cloud cover and overnight low temps,
leading into high temps Thursday.

The lack of a strong pressure gradient remains over the region,
which is resulting in light winds. Expect after sunset this
evening winds will further diminish to around 5 to 10 mph from the
north. Thin cirrus shield overhead tonight may help to keep
temperatures slightly warmer in a few spots, otherwise still
expect temps to fall into the teens across the interior locations
and lower 20s closer to the shoreline. Then temps Thursday will
rebound into the lower 30s, to slightly warmer across the
southeast forecast area where temps could push into the mid 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Continued dry weather...

Primary Forecast Concern...Increasing clouds late Saturday but
continued dry.

Minimal changes from prior thinking with high pressure keeping a
lock on the region and providing minimal cloud cover until mid-
weekend. This coupled with a slightly cooler thermal gradient
overhead will keep surface temps in the 30s for the afternoon and
allow overnight lows to radiate into the teens across the
interwar to the 20s along the shoreline.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Warming trend with possible precip early next week...

Ensembles continue to demonstrate minimal spread amongst members
in the longer term periods, with a ridge pushing over the Great
Lakes region. This will keep a steady warming trend in the
forecast with highs approaching the mid/upr 40s to perhaps the 50s
Tue. A shortwave is progged to lift northeast towards the area
late Mon into Tue, with moisture steadily approaching from the
southwest. The best chance for precip appears to be Tue, but the
concern is on precip type. Presently temps may be warm enough to
support all rain; however, with a frontal boundary possibly
slipping through Tue aftn/eve, temps could transition precip over
to a rain or snow mix.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR through the TAF period. Higher level cloud shield will
gradually depart east/thin out tonight. Light N/NW winds through
the period.


Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Light winds from the north/northeast, with waves subsiding to
less than 2 ft in most locations.




NEAR TERM...Beachler
SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...Beachler
MARINE...Beachler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.