Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 201053
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
653 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Impactful weather: Low afternoon humidities with frost potential
tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

The upper level flow is somewhat confluent out there early this
morning. WNW flow in nrn Michigan, associated with a passing
shortwave in Ontario within the nrn stream of the upper jet, and
more west/WSW mid level flow ahead of a shortwave working through
the heartland. The wave was also allowing for some higher level
clouds to cross nrn Michigan, over the top of deeper low level
moisture/stratus behind a departed cold front from yesterday. This
deeper low level moisture was dropping south with time as low level
winds were veering more N/NE and drawing in drier and increasingly
more downsloping flow from Ontario. This drier air was moving in on
the front flank of high pressure centered over the Dakotas where
light winds and clear skies prompted earlier issuance of frost
advisories there. Temperatures in CAA have been slowly dropping into
the 40s and even some upper 30s in eastern upper.

A pretty quiet period of weather through tonight. The air mass
continues to dry through tonight, as the aforementioned high
pressure gradually builds in over nrn Michigan. The low level clouds
will start clearing out in eastern upper over the next few hours,
and then down through nrn lower this morning. The higher cloud will
also thin/diminish as well, with the better DPVA from the shortwave
in the central conus pushing east of us. There`s likely going to be
at least some periodic high cloud across nrn lower into tonight, but
as winds go light/calm under high pressure that sits directly
overhead, will have little if any impact on temperature falls. That
said, the potential low temperatures tonight are to sneak into the
lower to middle 30s depending on just how much we mix out into the
increasingly drier air for today. At least the nrn half of the CWA
will have no issue seeing dew points crash into the middle 20s to
lower half of the 30s. Along and south of M-72 there is a touch of
discrepancy in how much the BL mixes out today, which may very well
lead to whether or not temperatures can effectively fall to where
frost can develop, or if there will be some good chance of fog and
slightly less chilly temps. Will go ahead an issue a frost advisory
for areas north of M-72 for now, with the idea that locales south of
there may also need the headline.

Highs today in the low to mid 60s most areas with lake breezes
keeping shorelines cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...High pressure taking control...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure will be over the Great
Lakes through most of the week. It will be in the form of a couple
of different pressure centers, but they will keep the region under
the influence of high pressure into the end of the week. There is a
weak area of low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley early in
the week that continues to waiver into and out of the southern
portion of the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns: The first question is with precip chances
Monday afternoon and evening. Consensus blends have low chance PoPs
from around M-55 south. Most guidance is keeping things dry, and I
tend to agree that most of the precip will remain to our south.
There is a good deal of moisture from the Gulf through the Ohio
Valley, so it isn`t completely out of the question that some precip
could work it`s way far enough north. The past 6 runs or so of the
GFS have been slowly drifting north with QPF, but most guidance
stays south with it. PoPs will be left for now, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see the rain stay south. Blend dewpoints still look on
the high side Monday and will need to be adjusted down.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...Warming through the week...

With high pressure overhead, things will remain warm and dry heading
into the weekend. Winds will remain light, but with temperatures
steadily warming to the 80s dewpoints will need to be monitored. The
next chance of rain will come over the weekend. There are still some
differences in the details of when exactly the system will arrive,
but there is good agreement for widespread rain sometime over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...Clearing skies, possible fog tonight?...

Shallow cool air with spotty MVFR CIGS will gradually erode as much
drier air advects into the region through today. This is out ahead
of high pressure that settles in tonight. Winds will become light
and trend more onshore with lake breezes this afternoon, before
going light/calm tonight. Fog is a possibility at MBL/TVC tonight,
but confidence in that is fairly low attm. Will not include in the
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

Winds will continue to diminish into daybreak, and especially
through today and tonight, as high pressure settles in overhead.
Have now cancelled the small craft advisory, as all observations
are under criteria. General high pressure and a weak pressure
gradient hold over the Great Lakes well into the upcoming work
week.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for MIZ008-015>019-
     021>024-027>030.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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