Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 170213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1013 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 1013 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Clear skies...cold temps and light winds will remain the rule
across Northern Michigan for the remainder of the night thanks to
strong high pressure and dry air thru the column. No changes
needed to the forecast.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...Cold Tonight, Dry Saturday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure continues to build into
the region and dry air follows it in. This high and dry air will
stick with us through the next several days.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Main concern for the next 24 hours, is
the developing baroclinic zone to the NE of Sault Ste. Marie, and
it`s sfc low associated with a 500 mb shortwave moving SE in the
flow. If it`s not being handled by the models properly, then there
is a chance for some light snow in E Upper and NE Lower, but the
models have been consistent with the handling of this feature. So
will leave tonight and Saturday dry.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

...Quiet weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A rather benign weather period a persistent upper level ridge remains over the
central United States along with surface high pressure ridging into
the forecast area from western Ontario.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Minimal forecast concerns as said high
pressure accompanied with dry air will produce precipitation free
weather through Monday...and beyond. A weak low pressure system will
ride the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge over the central
U.S. possibly providing some partly cloudy skies Saturday night as
it passes to our northeast. Highs will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s,
with the far southern CWA nearing 50 Sunday and then only reaching
into the upper 20s to mid 30s Monday as colder air filters in on
northeast winds. Lows will drop into the teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Quiet weather continues into the long range forecast with another
surface high pressure centered over Ontario ridging into the Great
Lakes region. Predominantly dry air looks to remain throughout the
period. A low pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley with
a possible upper level low developing on the backside will be worth
noting and keeping an eye on to see if the current track stays to
our south or moves a bit farther north. Highs will be in the 30s,
while lows will be in the teens and 20s.&&


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan
TAF sites tonight thru Saturday as strong high pressure and dry
air thru the column continue to build into the region. Winds will
generally be from the NW under 10 kts thru the period.




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