Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 192305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
605 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Dry northeast surface flow from high pressure over Hudson`s Bay
Canada keeping dry weather in place across our region, and will
continue to do so through tonight into Tuesday morning. Will then be
watching a mid-level trough pushing southeast out of the Northern
Plain tonight into Tuesday, but the combination of dry northeasterly
surface flow and weakening wave likely to produce just an increase
in high and mid-level cloud cover and very little if any
precipitation. Also, precipitation chances will be held mainly west
of the Mississippi River. Overnight lows expected to bottom out in
the teens to middle 20s. Plan on highs Tuesday only in the 30s under
cloud cover and weak cold air advection with mostly cloudy skies
lingering into Tuesday night with lows dropping into the teens to
middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Decreasing clouds expected for Wednesday as high pressure regains
full control across the region. A bit warmer as well with highs
peaking in the upper 30s to the middle 40s.

Next chance of precipitation will be from Friday afternoon through
Saturday night as low pressure pushes out of the Central Plains into
the mid-Mississippi River/Ohio River Valleys. Some question as to
Hudson Bay high`s dry northeasterly flow and impact it will have on
the system. This dry flow should act to 1. inhibit northeastward
push of precipitation, and 2. produce evaporative cooling in the
column for mostly snow Friday night where saturation does occur.
Could see some minor accumulations. The precipitation is expected to
mix/change to rain Saturday for areas south of I-94 Saturday. For
now, will keep better chances of precipitation confined mainly south
of I-94. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to be right around
seasonal norms with highs mainly in the 40s and lows in the
20s/lower 30s.

The majority of Sunday looks dry, but will be watching low pressure
tracking east out of the Norther/Central Plains. EC would dry things
out completely whereas the GFS would have just a smattering of

Monday looks dry with seasonable temperatures with highs in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday. Northeast
to east flow around 5 to 10 kts on the periphery of high pressure
centered to the north over Canada will continue with mainly mid
to high cloud cover streaming over the region. Some light snow and
lower VFR/MVFR ceilings may move into southeast Minnesota during
the morning on Tuesday, but given the dry easterly flow in place,
confidence is low on any precipitation reaching KRST at this time.




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