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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low humidity this afternoon across most of the Northland
  creating elevated fire weather conditions. Near-critical fire
  weather conditions are expected once again in spots Tuesday,
  mainly over portions of northwest Wisconsin into far northern
  Minnesota.

- An area of low pressure will bring rain chances to the
  Northland Tuesday into Wednesday with lower chances lingering
  Thursday into Friday. A light wintry mix will be possible in
  spots, mainly over the Arrowhead but little significant
  snowfall is expected.

- Total rainfall amounts appear to have stabilized with this
  forecast, but remaining on the lower side. Forecast amounts
  range from a quarter inch up to one inch from Tuesday into
  Wednesday night. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance for
  amounts exceeding one inch for most of northwest Wisconsin,
  the North Shore and the I-35 corridor in Minnesota, with even
  lower probabilities elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

We have had yet another dry day today, with afternoon minimum
RH values down in to the 15 to 25 percent range this afternoon.
Some weak showers have been flirting with the Brainerd Lakes
area this afternoon, with cloud bases around 9kft and
visibilities at or above 10sm. I expect this trend to continue
tonight, with rain showers drifting along our western and
southwestern border overnight, with the low level dry air
helping to keep a lot of this precipitation to our southwest.

Tuesday the main upper low and accompanying moisture surge
should push into the area from the south, even as the surface
low deepens as it moves across Nebraska. Models are in good
agreement on pushing an area of rain with some embedded
convective elements into the forecast area during the morning,
then spreading slowly northeast during the afternoon and evening
hours. The best lift, from isentropic lift and warm air
advection slides across the forecast area overnight Tuesday
night, then slowly pivots over the area Wednesday before pulling
to the northeast Wednesday night. PWAT values will rise to
0.75-1.00 inches Tuesday/Tuesday night which is in the 90th
percentile but not too extreme. Once again, we have slowed the
progression of the rain to the north on Tuesday due to the
presence of drier air out of the high well off to the northeast.
Instability is quite limited with this system so the chances
for thunderstorms have diminished and the threat for heavy
rainfall has also diminished. The chance for 48 hour rainfall
exceeding 1 inch Tuesday through Wednesday night ranges from 40
to 70%, highest from the St. Croix River Valley into northwest
Wisconsin, as well as along the North Shore.

Strong winds are still looking likely starting Tuesday and
diminishing through the day Wednesday. Easterly gusts of 30 to
40 mph are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening,
strongest around Lake Superior. The strong wind will continue
Tuesday night then diminish through the day Wednesday.

Thursday should have some decent low level lapse rates during
the daytime, so while the models do not have much for
precipitation across the area, we should have some diurnally
driven showers, mainly during the afternoon hours. There is a
fairly significant surge of cold air moving in Thursday and
Thursday night, which combined with moisture sagging into the
area from the north should make Friday our coldest day on the
back side of our mid-week system. Steep low level lapse rates
once again on Friday should produce afternoon showers, but
perhaps not as widespread as we should see Thursday. A trough
axis swings across the forecast area on Saturday with the cold
pool still in place aloft may keep the small pops lingering.
Temperatures warm slightly, but not all that much warmer than
Friday.

Sunday into early next week is a fairly significant spaghetti
mess at upper levels, with some hints in the cluster analysis of
a shortwave that moves over the top of the weak ridge over the
western CONUS. However, there is a large spread in the location,
track and strength of this feature, and have low confidence in
any precipitation chances beyond Sunday. Temperatures should be
near normal into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will be occurring this morning with light showers in
far north-central MN into the Arrowhead over the next several hours.
A strong low-level jet associated with approaching low pressure is
expected to produce LLWS for several terminals, including HIB, BRD,
and HYR. BRD will see low-level wind shear begin as early as this
morning, while LLWS won`t be ramping up in HIB and HYR until the
late afternoon into early evening today. Widespread rain will be
moving from southwest to northeast across the region through today.
MVFR and eventually IFR cigs are likely to occur this afternoon and
evening as the low pressure moves further into the area. Expect
strong east to northeast winds through much of the TAF period due
to the arriving low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds will be at or less than 15 knots this evening, and
generally easterly in the southwest arm of the lake, and
southerly for the more open waters portions of the lake. Winds
become a more consistent east tonight and increase into Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a strengthening area of low pressure moves
into the Central Plains. East/northeast winds will increase into
the 15 to 25 knots Tuesday morning, strengthening still further
during the day, until we are getting gales over a large portion
of the lake from late morning through Tuesday late evening,
when wind speeds are at their maximum. Chances for gales have
increased enough that we have issued a Gale Warning for much of
the nearshore waters beginning Tuesday morning and continuing
until early Wednesday morning. There is also about a 6 hour
Small Craft Advisory in advance of the Gale Warning Tuesday
morning as wind speeds increase. More Small Craft Advisories
will be needed after the Gale Warnings expire, potentially
continuing through Thursday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
     Wednesday for LSZ121.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT this morning for
     LSZ140>147-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for
     LSZ140>142.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Wednesday
     for LSZ143>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT
     Wednesday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...LE