552
FXUS63 KDLH 292330
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers continue through today and will end overnight.
  Some areas could see mixed precipitation tonight. Additional
  accumulations up to a tenth of an inch and very little to no
  frozen accumulations expected.

- A couple more systems will bring additional rainfall and
  embedded thunderstorms this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

This evening and tonight:

The low pressure center is making its
way over the Northland, and is bringing the last round of
showers from this system this afternoon and evening. Additional
liquid accumulation will be up to a tenth of an inch across the
CWA. Like last night, far northern portions of our area could
see some mixed precipitation as lows tonight will be around
freezing. However, precipitation will be very light at this
point, so little to no frozen accumulations are expected.

Tuesday system and Wednesday:

We will only see a short break in precipitation before the next
shortwave starts skirting across the Northern Plains Tuesday
evening and overnight. This will be a fast moving system, but
it will have plenty of moisture and could leave up to a half
inch in northwest Wisconsin and around a quarter inch in
northeast Minnesota. Though CAPE is very low (<100 J/kg) for
Tuesday night, can`t rule out a rumble of thunder or two where
highest values are present in northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation
should end Wednesday morning. Areas that see clearing will have
highs in the 60s on Wednesday, and dry air aloft could mix down
to the surface. Combined with breezy conditions from the
departing system, near critical fire weather conditions are
possible particularly across the southern half of our CWA.

Thursday and weekend system:

A closed upper level low over the northern Rockies will help to
develop a larger system for the latter half of the week. This
system will bring more widespread rain to the Northland, not
unlike the couple we saw this weekend. Strong upper level
forcing, gulf moisture and higher instability will lead to more
widespread embedded thunderstorms with this system, but MUCAPE
is still < 500 J/kg, so no severe weather is expected. This
system will lead to on and off precipitation through Friday
night before exiting Saturday. Models start to diverge at this
point of temperatures aloft, where some show that all
precipitation will be rain, while others show that there could
be some mixed precipitation. This will need to be monitored as
the event gets closer. Also like this past weekend, global
models hint at a second weaker Colorado low that will bring a
second round of precipitation right after the first system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers/drizzle are beginning to move northeast of BRD as the
low pressure system moves into the Arrowhead. The remaining TAF
sites will see showers/drizzle end later this evening and
tonight from southwest to northeast as the low continues to
track northeast. Continuing to see mostly IFR ceilings and IFR
to MVFR visibilities in areas seeing the rain, while areas
behind the rain/drizzle (BRD) see brief improvement to VFR
visibilities and MVFR ceilings early this evening. However, fog
coverage is expected to spread/redevelop later this evening and
tonight with predominately IFR visibilities and IFR to LIFR
ceilings expected, though there is a low (20-30% chance) for
visibilities to dip to LIFR as well overnight. Expect
improvement to broken MVFR ceilings tomorrow afternoon, with
some potential for scattered MVFR cloud bases at BRD and HYR.

Winds turn light and variable this evening, then westerly
tonight into early Tuesday morning before backing to
south to southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon as the next low
pressure system approaches from our west. Brainerd may even see
the next round of rain shower with this next system arrive by
mid-afternoon Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Strong winds over the lake today will back to the north and
northwest tonight and lighten. Small Craft Advisories are in
effect overnight as winds and waves decrease. Winds will
increase once again on Wednesday on the back end of a system
that will bring us rain on Tuesday, and widespread Small Crafts
may be needed again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML