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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230545
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation is expected through tomorrow afternoon
  with total QPF amounts remaining under 0.2”.

- Cooler and drier conditions through midweek.

- Active pattern returns to our region late week and into the
  weekend with multiple chances for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Short Term:

Scattered clouds through this afternoon will become more
widespread across our area as well as increase in coverage as a
shortwave trough drops out of the Canadian Prairies and into the
Northern Plains. This will be the focus of any precipitation
that we see in the coming 24 hours. Initially a warm front will
move through the area this afternoon bringing showers and
drizzle with it as it passes through the area. It appears that
Central Minnesota may not see much precipitation with this
initial round due to a fair bit of dry air closer to the
surface. Conversely, areas east of I-35, and near the border
with Canada have better rain chances due to marginally more
moist lower levels. By late tonight most of the precipitation
from the front will have moved off to the east with scattered
showers near the eastern edges of our CWA. Around daybreak
Tuesday is when our precipitation chances return as the
shortwave finally moves overhead and produces more chances for
rain and maybe some snowflakes on the back end. As the cold
front associated with the shortwave moves North to South early
tomorrow, we will see another bout of precipitation. Initially
the precipitation will remain all rain but during early morning
as strong cold air occurs, we will see temperatures drop into
the mid to upper 30s. With these temperatures we could see a few
flakes in the colder pockets and where we have stronger
convection where evaporative cooling can enhance the cooling
effect. As it stands right now, the Minnesota Arrowhead and
South Shore areas look to have the best chance (50-60%) of
seeing some snowflakes mix-in heading into the afternoon. By
late afternoon, most of the precipitation will have moved out of
our CWA with much cooler temperatures present with highs in the
upper 30s (closer to the lake) to mid 40s (Inland).

Extended Range:

Wednesday will be on the cooler side with highs remaining in the
40s and 50s with persistent NW wind making it feel on the
chillier side. Very dry soundings indicate the return of near-
critical fire weather conditions across far northern Minnesota
and northwestern Wisconsin during the day. This cold, dry spell
will be brief before we’ll see a quick warmup into the upper
50s/lower 60s on Thursday as winds return to a more southerly
component, which will advect some moisture for slightly less dry
conditions for Thursday. Beyond this is when our active pattern
returns with multiple shots for rain through the weekend. At the
synoptic level, a potent shortwave will exit the Southern Plains
on Friday and another one exiting the region on Sunday. Both of
these will in some shape or form induce cyclogenesis of a low
somewhere across the midwest/plains trekking towards the
northeast. The track of these systems will generally be to the
south of our CWA preventing any convective nature to these
storms. What we will get instead is a good soaking of rain into
early next week. Ensembles are highlighting 1-1.5” of QPF
through the weekend this far out from the events which is
something to keep we’ll need to keep an eye on for hydrological
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Low pressure moving into the area will be bringing scattered showers
today. VFR conditions occurring early this morning will be
deteriorating to MVFR to IFR as low stratus moves in. Preceding this
stratus and showers will be areas of patchy fog. This patchy fog is
most likely to impact HIB this morning, potentially reducing
visibility as low as IFR. Elsewhere, fog is expected to be
highly localized and short-lived. In addition to scattered
showers today, there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm in
HYR this afternoon. Expect conditions to improve to VFR late
this afternoon into the evening as low pressure moves downstream
and high pressure begins to build.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A Small Craft Advisory has been extended for the South Shore and
Twin Ports until 10 pm due to models having winds linger a few
hours later than previously forecasted. Strong southwesterly
winds continue throughout this afternoon and evening as a
clipper approaches and brings light rain over western Lake
Superior. Light snow could be seen Tuesday morning. On the back
side of the clipper, winds will shift to the northeast and
increase to up to 30 kts, which will pose a hazard to small
craft. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...KML