Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191731
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Updated for the latest 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Dry conditions will continue through the short-term forecast
period as high pressure dominates over the Northland. Little in
the way of moisture will lead to abundant sunshine today,
although some high cirrus clouds will briefly move through the
region later today, but shouldn`t put too much of a damper on the
sunshine. Highs today will reach into the lower to middle 50s
across the area, with a high temperature forecast in Duluth of 52
degrees. If this comes to fruition, today will be the first 50+
degree day since October 23, 2017. The only big adjustment made
was adding patchy fog to the forecast for tonight and Friday
morning, mainly over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of
northeast Minnesota. Looks like some good snow melt will occur
today, with a surface high pressure ridge overhead in these areas.
Dew point depressions look favorable, and clear skies, with high
clouds staving off until later in the morning as well, so
confidence in some patchy fog in these areas has increased.

More of the same for Friday, except for increasing warm air
advection as the high departs to southern Lake Michigan. Some high
clouds will linger, with the possibility of some diurnally-driven
cumulus, mainly across our north and west. Highs Friday remain in
the lower to middle 50s, with even warmer temperatures possible
for the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A gradual warming trend through the long term forecast period
leading to above-normal temperatures early next week as highs reach
as warm as the 60s! (It was last 60+ in Duluth on Oct 23, 2017,
which would be 182 days if we can reach 60 or warmer on Monday!) Dry
through the weekend then chances for precipitation return next week:
a low chance for light precip Sunday night into Monday, then a
better chance for more widespread precipitation on Tuesday when a
cold front is expected to sweep through the region. Precipitation
will primarily be in the form on rain due to the warmer
temperatures, but snow may mix in especially in far northern
Minnesota depending on the timing of the precipitation. Tuesday into
Wednesday could be breezy in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Anticipate VFR and light winds for most of the period through
early Friday afternoon because of high pressure. However, there is
a low threat of fog late tonight and early Friday, including at
KHYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
INL  54  27  56  29 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  54  29  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  49  23  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  50  27  55  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...JTS
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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