Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 231857
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
257 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with below average temperatures will continue to mark
conditions through the remainder of the weekend.

- A more significant warming trend will emerge early next week.
Breezy conditions will develop during this time.

- Rain potential increases Monday night continues through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Benign conditions to finish the weekend period, as surface riding
gradually vacates the region. Stubborn lingering stratocumulus fades
with loss of diurnal support, leaving plenty of nocturnal open sky
to solidify a favorable radiational cooling environment tonight.
Diminished gradient flow and high magnitude dryness within the mid
levels will encourage the process, supporting lows in the teens for
many locations outside of metro Detroit Sunday morning. A colder
resident thermal profile witnesses some modest warming Sunday as
large scale heights build and lean moisture quality lends to high
insolation potential. Highs still edged on the colder side of
average for late March - mid 30s to lower 40s.

Active pacific jet stream will direct a series of mid level waves
now seen approaching the west coast eastward into the plains during
the early week period. Initial period of strong height falls and
associated surface cyclogenesis will remain to the west/northwest
Monday, maintaining dry conditions locally. Increasing depth and
magnitude to southwest flow immediate downstream will invoke greater
warm air advection atop a low level southeast gradient. This sets
the stage for a solid warming trend, as 850 mb temperatures climb
roughly 15 degrees in 24 hours from readings noted Sunday. Highs
arrive in the 50s most locations, with lower 60s possible across
southern sections.

Trailing mid level height falls shearing northeast through the
broader mid level trough will ease a cold frontal boundary eastward
with time, with latest model projections landing the frontal zone
locally Tuesday night. Corridor of stronger moist isentropic ascent
with emerge along the low level jet axis Monday night. General model
consensus subsequently advects this moist plume across lower
Michigan overnight into Tuesday, with rainfall chances increasing
accordingly. Diminished column stability given the overall high
magnitude of the theta-e surge could afford a few rumbles of
thunder. A milder pre-cold frontal thermal profile holds Tuesday
despite the clouds/showers, with increasing wind speed just off the
surface affording some gustiness to prevailing south to southeast
wind. Trailing cold front brings a secondary chance for convective
showers Tuesday evening. A more seasonable airmass arrives Wed-Thu
within broad mid level troughing.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered over Iowa supports northerly flow through the
rest of the day. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through
this evening as onshore flow keeps wave heights elevated before
diminishing overnight as wind speeds drop below 10 knots. Eastward
drift of the high pressure center veers winds to the east for
Sunday, with mainly dry conditions expected. The next low pressure
system arrives early next week with peak marine impacts looking to
be on Tuesday. Southeast winds and a warm airmass aloft promote
neutral to stable thermal profiles over the lakes, preventing
efficient mixing potential. But with low level jet wind speeds of up
to 60 knots just 2 kft above the surface, will continue to monitor
for gale potential Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system will also
bring widespread precipitation to the region focused around Tuesday-
Tuesday night which will be followed by a return of high pressure by
mid-week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

AVIATION...

Diurnal heating has and will continue to expand strato cu between 4-
5 kft across SE MI through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Cloud coverage will scatter and clear by the late evening given the
loss of sunshine. Sporadic wind gusts to 20 knots will be possible
through the afternoon. Some lingering low-level clouds will also be
possible across KMBS beyond the evening hours given some low-level
convergence with an added boost of moisture from the Saginaw Bay
under northeast flow, but otherwise generally clear conditions are
expected overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.


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