Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 261147
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
747 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Weak low pressure will spread some clouds and the chance for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Generally fair
weather can be expected Sunday and Monday before moisture surges
up from the Gulf of Mexico with rain arriving by the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Forecast issue in the near term is timing and coverage of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight. Overall coverage of rain will
not be great but small clusters of showers and a few thunderstorms
can be expected with the southern third of the forecast area
expecting the most.

Instability and shear are marginal so no severe storms are
expected but PWATS are around 1.5 inches today and isolated heavy
downpours are possible.

Weak upper trough over the Great Lakes today and tonight is
replaced by building heights and ridging north of the Gulf low,
which should mean an end to showers by Sunday and continued dry on
Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Looks like we`ll have a few opportunities for rain during the long
term. The first will come Tuesday afternoon. As the upper ridge over
the eastern Great Lakes moves east, the gfs shows a weak short wave
moving north toward Lower Michigan. The ecmwf doesn`t show this so
confidence is still fairly low that we`ll see rain.

A higher chance of rain will come Wednesday and Thursday. Both the
gfs and ecmwf show the remnants of Alberto moving north from the
Gulf and rain reaching Lower Michigan perhaps as early as Wednesday
(gfs/Canadian) or Thursday (ecmwf). Either way, all of the models
show a pretty good signal for rain.

There`s also a chance of rain Friday as a cold front move south
across the state.

Tuesday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid 80s and then
highs falling back into the 70s for the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions should prevail through tonight except local MVFR
possible in showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
Coverage of storms should be low enough to not include as
prevailing in the forecast. Winds will generally be southwest
below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas of fog are possible the next couple days as dew points in
the lower to mid 60s combine with water temperatures in the 40s
and lower 50s. Winds and waves will continue to be relatively
light.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Rivers continue their decline across the region. Any weekend
rainfall is not expected to reverse this trend. The Grand River at
Ionia should return within banks by late tonight or Saturday.
Otherwise, all other rivers should be within their banks for the
entire weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...Ostuno


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