Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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141
FXUS63 KGRR 252255
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
655 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure will provide calm and quiet conditions overnight,
which will allow temperatures to fall into the low 30s for most
locations, and the upper 20s along and north of M-10. Dry and
warmer conditions can be expected tomorrow with high temperatures
warming into the low and mid 60s. A trough of low pressure moving
through the area will provide a few rain showers Thursday night
and Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Northerly flow with gusts to about 20 mph will persist into the
early evening, with clouds over the northern and eastern portions
of the forecast area gradually diminishing as drier air pushes
in. Upper ridge will build into the area tonight placing the
center of surface high pressure along the MI/IN/OH border. This
will let clear and calm conditions prevail overnight, and may
allow shallow patches of fog to fill in favored locations. Good
radiational cooling conditions and low dewpoints should help lows
drop into the low 30s for most locations, with upper 20s north of
M-10.

Ridging will keep quiet and dry conditions over the area tomorrow,
with lighter winds. Highs should warm close to normal with
temperatures reaching the low/mid 60s. Temps will be a little
cooler near the lakeshore, where the lake breeze will move inland
during the afternoon.Upper trough now stretching through Central
Canada back into the Pacific Northwest will swing into Michigan
Thursday night, before several upper waves dive into the system
and form a closed low over the Great Lakes by Saturday morning.
Initial surface trough will pass through the western half of
Michigan Thursday evening through Friday morning.

This will only provide a quick shot of lift and moisture, which
must first overcome the antecedent dry airmass before any
precipitation can reach the ground. Held pops in the low chance
category. Better chance for precipitation looks to hold off until
late Friday/Friday evening as the strongest upper wave drops
through the Chicago area (per latest model consensus). This track
will largely keep precipitation south of I-96, which would fall as
rain.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Temperatures will run cooler Friday and Saturday behind a
cold front and as the upper low sits overhead. Almost all of this
will fall as rain, but we could see a few flakes mix in Friday
night north of I-96.

High pressure will provide a nice warming trend Sunday through
Tuesday, with highs reaching the 70s for the first part of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions will continue at all the terminals through Thursday
evening with mostly clear skies tonight and just some scattered high
level clouds Thursday. Northwest winds this evening will back to
the southwest aob 10 kts Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Gusty north to northwest winds will continue through the evening,
keeping large waves of 4 to 7 feet over the nearshore waters. High
pressure building into the area tonight and early tomorrow will
allow winds and wave heights to diminish. Gusty winds developing
behind the next cold front late Thursday night into Friday may
cause hazardous conditions for small craft to redevelop.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 328 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Rivers are running near to above normal for late April. Only a
handful of locations remain above bankfull at this time. Local,
nuisance flooding may still be an issue for these particular
locations: Ionia, Eagle, Maple Rapids, Newaygo, and Evart. Looking
at the next 7 days, the next risk for rain comes late Thursday and
then again on Friday, but will have no impact on area rivers. Beyond
this, rain may return by the middle of next week but too early to
tell if this will have any impact on area rivers and streams.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HLO
SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM...HLO
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...Hoving
MARINE...HLO



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