Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 160354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1054 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018


The forecast is on track. Lake effect clouds are developing
across the central part of Lake Michigan and those should
eventually push into the southeast around sunrise, stick around
for a few hours, then mix out by afternoon.



A period of MVFR CIGS is expected to roll in off Lake Michigan,
affecting KENW/KMKE from about 12-17z Friday. They could make it
to KUES, but there is more uncertainty with that. Satellite
imagery is showing these clouds currently developing over central
Lake Michigan. Once those clouds exit, look for VFR conditions
through the remainder of the TAF period. We could see some light
snow push into areas southwest of Madison Friday evening, but CIGS
are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 855 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018)


Quiet across the area overnight. It looks like we may see a period
of lake effect clouds roll in across the southeast late tonight
through Friday morning, then wipe out. Otherwise, the forecast is
on track.


The small craft advisory is struggling. It`s marginal, but close
enough to keep it in effect with a northeast to north wind. Look
for conditions to improve by early to mid morning on Friday.

Winds and waves may reach small craft advisory conditions again
Monday night into Tuesday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 601 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018)


Forecast looks good into Friday morning.  No changes needed.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The only
concern with the small potential for an MVFR CIG pushing in off
Lake Michigan and hitting KMKE/KENW from about 10-17Z Friday.
These clouds should just remain scattered or stay off shore
completely, but there is uncertainty and therefore the potential
that it could be a CIG for a few hours. Look for northerly winds
to gradually veer northeast tonight, then east by late Friday

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 328 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018)

Tonight through Saturday

Dry northwest flow will dominate through early Friday. Light north
to northeast winds are expected tonight, becoming easterly on Friday
as surface high pressure slides over northeast wisconsin. Some
clouds may move into far southeast Wisconsin from the lake early
Friday morning. Mid level ridging will move over head on Friday
ahead of the next system so clear skies should continue through the
day with mild temperatures. Easterly flow will keep temperatures
cool along Lake Michigan.

A closed low will be approaching the state Friday night. Some wet
snow, around one half inch, may clip southwest WI overnight, south
and west of Madison. Confidence on accumulating snow is low since it
may end up south of here or be mainly virga. There is a lot of dry
air to overcome below the snow growth zone so it will take some time
for the low levels to saturate, if they fully saturate at all. The
NAM looks like an outlier on the high side of QPF. The surface low
will stay well to the south where the better forcing is. GFS and NAM
soundings are showing only a small window of saturation.
Temperatures will dip below freezing during the evening but any
accumulation may lag due to lingering warmer pavement temperatures
from sunny day time heating.

Temperatures will warm into the 40s on Saturday. The upper low will
become an open wave as it moves across central IL on Saturday. High
pressure will then dominate through Sunday.


Early in the week low pressure will track well south of the
state. Wisconsin will remain in east flow. Temperatures will
remain mild with Sunday being the warmest day. A shortwave will
drop across the state midweek brining cooler temperatures with
precip chances to our west. A mid level ridge sets up later in
the week with dry weather likely.


Winds will gradually become northeast across all of southern WI
tonight. Some clouds around 2-4kft may move in off the lake early
Friday and they may be broken to overcast for a few hours. Light
east winds are expected on Friday.


North to northeast winds will continue across the lake today,
becoming northeast tonight, and then east Friday and Saturday.
Waves are expected to be 3 to 5 feet tonight, with the higher
waves toward open waters. Waves are expected to diminish Friday
afternoon, with just 1-2 foot waves expected Saturday and Sunday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LMZ643>646.



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