Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXUS63 KMKX 270953
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
453 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy west winds will linger today into tonight. Wind chills
  tonight will be in the teens.

- Above normal temperatures may return this weekend, along with
  a more active weather pattern into early next week. A few
  thunderstorms may occur Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 429 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Today through Thursday:

High pressure will begin to build into the region today amid
cold advection behind departing low pressure north of Lake
Superior. This morning, a few isolated flurries may occur mainly
north of I-94, before dry air deepens below the cloud deck. HREF
guidance suggests that cloud cover should begin to scatter late
this morning into the afternoon leading to partly cloudy skies.
It will be colder today owing to the CAA, with highs around 40.
West winds will be gusty to 30 mph.

Tonight skies will clear and temperatures will drop into the mid
to low 20s. Elevated winds will cause wind chills to drop into
the low teens away from Lake Michigan.

Thursday will be sunny with winds easing through the day.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid to upper 40s as
we`ll be on the eastern periphery of ridging over the central
plains.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 440 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Thursday night through Tuesday:

A pair of disturbances look possible Friday into Saturday and Sunday
afternoon into Monday, as a zonally oriented baroclinic zone
will be parked over the corn belt. A low pressure system is
expected to pass east along the baroclincic zone in northern IL
ahead of a shortwave trough aloft for the Friday night into
Saturday period. PWATS of around 0.9 to 1.10 inches will be
possible with this system, which is close to the 90th percentile
on KDVN`s sounding climatology, so the system should be a good
rain producer over the region. There may also be convective
elements and thunder overnight Friday into Saturday morning as
MUCAPE ranging from 250 to 500 J/kg may deliver a glancing blow
to the southern portion of our CWA.

The baroclinic zone should largely remain in place following the
Saturday disturbance, providing a broad region of overunning and
isentropic lift. A subtle shortwave aloft is expected to travel
east along this boundary and lead to our second round of rain
Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Looking at EPS and GEFS ensemble run total QPF probs through
00z Monday, the GEFS shows at least a 70 to 80% chance for QPF
greater than or equal to 0.5 inches through Monday over the
southern half of our CWA, while the EPS favors 60 to 70% probs
for those same metrics mainly over northern IL. With some
differences in ensemble probs, we`ll continue to monitor the
fine details through the rest of the week, but more beneficial
moisture is likely on the way for this weekend.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

MVFR ceilings will linger into the post-dawn hours before
lifting and scattering into the afternoon hours, leading to partly
cloudy skies. Conditions will be dry but west to west-
southwest winds with gusts to 25 knots will linger through today
before easing tonight.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 349 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Low pressure centered just north of Lake Superior, will
continue to head north through today and enter Hudson Bay by
dawn on Thursday. Breezy west to southwest winds will continue
today generally ranging from 20 to 27 knots, and will linger
into the first half of Thursday.

Thursday afternoon, high pressure will finally win out and the
linger strong pressure gradient over the Upper Great Lakes should
ease, allowing winds to back off. Lighter winds are then expected
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning as high pressure shifts
east over the region. Winds will come around to northwesterly and
then around to southeasterly Friday afternoon into Friday night
ahead of approaching low pressure.


CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.