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000
FXUS63 KMQT 242039
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
439 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air, clear skies, and light winds today through
  tonight.
- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions are likely on
  Thursday with minimum relative humidities in the 20 percent
  range. Light southeast winds will keep the area from meeting
  critical thresholds.
- Two low pressure systems, one this weekend and another into
  early next week, bring an unsettled pattern. A brief period
  for severe weather is possible Saturday into Saturday night,
  however confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

GOES satellite imagery shows completely sunny skies over the U.P.
early this afternoon as a high pressure sets up over Lake Superior
for the rest of today through tonight. This high will keep winds
light across the area through tonight, with many of the interior
areas becoming completely calm during the overnight hours.
Meanwhile, local observations have shown temps struggling to get
into the 40s, with so far only the interior west succeeding in doing
so. With cold air aloft being stubborn in leaving the area the rest
of today through tonight, expect highs to be limited to the 40s
across most of the area, save a few spots in the interior west
hitting 50 and the upper 30s along the Lake Superior shoreline; as
for lows, thinking they will generally be in the 20s, although a few
spots in the interior east could dip down into the upper teens
tonight. Expect the dry conditions created by the high pressure to
continue through the short-term too; min RHs are still expected to
bottom out into the upper teens to around 20%, while RH recoveries
tonight are looking to only max out in the 70 to 90% range.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 438 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The extended forecast starts out dry with high pressure over the
Great Lakes, however an active and wet period sets up this weekend
that continues into next week as two shortwaves ride northeast into
the Upper Midwest. This continued southwest flow is also expected to
bring above normal temps to the region into next week.

Starting on Thursday, dry weather persists under sunny skies as the
high pressure is centered over southern Ontario and extends over the
Great Lakes Basin. Mid level ridging will be situated over the
Plains with a trough over the southeastern U.S. With the positioning
of the high pressure, the gradient may be strong enough to weaken
the lake breeze off Lake Superior. With the southerly flow, the east
looks to stay cooler in the upper 40s to mid 50s with broad 50s to
possibly low 60s over the west. Good mixing will bring RHs down into
the 20s away from the lakeshores, but fire weather concerns are
low with light winds mainly below 15 mph.

The trough over the west takes a negative tilt Thursday evening as
it begins lifting northeast into the Central Plains Thursday night.
With ridging still over the Upper Great Lakes, the area stays dry
with lows mainly in the upper 20s to upper 30s and light southeast
winds. Meanwhile, our colorado low pressure system associated
with the first shortwave will be developing.

On Friday, the trough takes on more of a negative tilt as it slows
down over NE/SD. A warm front ahead of the low lifts north through
WI during the day increasing cloud cover from the southeast, however
showers look to mainly hold off until Friday night. Gusty southeast
winds up to 25-35 mph are expected to mix down during the day from a
LLJ overhead. Mixing in the afternoon will also result in min RHs
near 30%, which will need to monitor these conditions in future
forecast packages as lower RH values with the expected winds would
increase fire weather concerns. Highs will be above normal in the
50s with some spots reaching into the low 60s in the west.
Isentropic lift and weak PVA will support showers overspreading the
UP Friday night; maybe accompanied by a rumble of thunder in the
west.

While there is some spread yet in the guidance, the consensus is the
low pressure system will weaken on Saturday as it moves northeast
from central MN to Lake Superior. This results in the UP being in
the warm sector of the low ahead of the cold front for late in the
day Saturday into Saturday night. Moist dew points are expected to
rise into the mid to upper 50s with bulk wind shear around 40-50 kt
and MLCAPE around 600-1200 j/kg. This leaves some potential for
severe weather, assuming that previous or lingering clouds/precip do
not work against diurnal heating. The best potential for severe
weather is expected over the central UP where the weakest capping
inversion is noted in model soundings. Showers and weak thunderstorm
chances continue Saturday night over the east as the cold front
continues east, but severe weather potential diminishes as
instability is worked over. Periods of showers continue through
Sunday.

Another shortwave riding northeast into the Upper Midwest brings an
additional low pressure system with it for Monday and Monday night.
This brings more rain showers Sunday into Monday. With a lack of
instability and periods of showers preceding the low, no strong
storm are expected at this time. Dry weather then returns on
Tuesday, but a shortwave riding east over Lake Superior brings
another round of showers on Wednesday. Mid level ridging looks to
return dry weather through Friday morning when another trough moves
northeast into the Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast as light northeasterly-
ish winds become southerly late in the period due to high pressure
moving through Lake Superior into the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep winds below 20 kts
through Thursday as it shifts east. Southeast winds will increase to
around 20 kts Thursday night with southeast/east to 20-30 kts Friday
and Friday night; the strongest winds are expected along the U.S.
Canadian border waters of eastern Lake Superior. Potential for gales
remains low at this time (below 25%). The low pressure then tracks
northeast across the lake late in the day Saturday into Saturday
night resulting in 20-30 kt north winds Saturday night becoming
northeast on Sunday behind the low pressure system. Northeast winds
remain around 20-30 knots through Sunday night. Another low pressure
system moves through the Upper Great Lakes Monday into Monday night
yielding west winds behind the low that are expected to diminish
back below 20 kts by Tuesday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...Jablonski