Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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092
FXUS63 KMQT 280537
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
137 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Brief lull in afternoon convection today, with diffluent flow aloft
and a lack of vorticity to agitate a cumulus cloud layer. Minimal
wind field has allowed a lake breeze to push inland from Lakes
Superior and Michigan. Upper level pattern will be changing later
tonight. This evening will continue to be quiet, with temps slowly
falling into the 60s.

Focus will turn towards the 06-12Z Mon timeframe, as hi-res guidance
has continued to point towards a complex of thunderstorms developing
over Northern Minnesota. The upper level pattern would suggest a
turning southeastward to the complex late tonight, bringing it into
the Western UP around 6-9Z Mon. Forward speed of the complex doesn`t
appear to be very strong, so at this time not anticipating a wind
threat from convection. Given it will be elevated convection early
Mon morning, stronger cores would produce marginally severe hail.
Shear is not too favorable given the diminishing vorticity and
uniform flow, so confidence is not too high that stronger storms
will become numerous.

Early-Mid morning convection could dictate high temps for Memorial
Day. Have trended slightly cooler with highs due to expected
lingering cloud cover into the midday/early afternoon timeframe. So
expect it`ll take longer for the environment to recover and heat
back-up, so have brought temps down into the low/mid 80s across the
Southwest areas of the UP, meanwhile areas adjacent to Lake Superior
could stick in the 60s. Another lobe of vorticity will likely
approach the area late Mon aftn and could re-ignite the atmosphere
with showers and thunderstorms. Coverage again would be isolated to
scattered, but timing and intensity will hinge upon how quickly the
atmosphere recovers.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Blocking pattern across the western CONUS will break down early this
week as the closed low and mid-level trough over the
central/southern Rockies eject slowly eastward. Mid-upper level
ridging will persist over the western Great Lakes allowing the well
above normal temperatures and humid conditions to persist for the
first half of the week. After a period of potentially active weather
Wed night into Thu as the western CONUS trough and remnants of
Subtropical Storm Alberto move through, expect a bit of a cool down
later in the week into next weekend!

Tuesday through Wednesday, The warmth will persist through the
middle of the week as an amplified upper level ridge (around 585 dm
5h ridge heights) builds over the Great Lakes region. Expect
temperatures inland from the Great Lakes approaching the upper 80s
with cooler temps each day near the Great Lakes. Overnight lows will
also remain on the mild side, generally 50s to lower 60s.

By late Wednesday through Thursday, as the main upper-level trough
from the west continues to lift across the northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley, medium range models indicate that remnants from
Subtropical Storm Alberto moving up from the Gulf of Mexico will be
ingested into the trough as it lifts toward the Great Lakes region.
This setup will favor increased moisture for the potential of more
widespread showers and thunderstorms late Wed into Thu, especially
into the east half of the cwa. This will certainly be a time period
to keep an eye on for more active weather.

Friday into next weekend, a brief cool down and a break from the
active weather looks on tap as troughing moves over the eastern
Great Lakes and we get back under the influence of a mid-level high
pressure ridge and Hudson Bay sfc high pressure. Temperatures during
this time period may still run above normal, but will feel much more
seasonable for this time of year. There is model uncertainty out to
next Sunday on timing of the next shortwave trough moving in from
the Northern Plains with really only the ECMWF showing quicker
timing with the shortwave into the Upper Lakes, but model consensus
and GEFS ensemble mean 5h ridge height suggest that the mid-upper
level ridge should hold over the western Great Lakes ensuring
another day of dry conditions.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 137 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2018

Convective complex currently forming across central MN is expected
to clip KIWD, with thunderstorms briefly lowering visbys through
early this morning. The trend of this complex has been to take a
fairly hard southerly turn, which minimizes the chances of KCMX and
KSAW experiencing any direct impacts. That said though, there is
still a chance for thunderstorms to at least be in the vicinity of
KSAW, and have kept mention as such for this TAF issuance. Given the
lowered confidence in a direct impact, however, have removed the
previously included TEMPO group. KCMX should remain quiet through
the overnight period. Look for VFR conditions to prevail for much of
the day Monday, with perhaps some late afternoon convection firing
up across the southern U.P.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 338 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Winds are expected to remain less than 20 knots through the middle
of next week. Areas of dense fog on Lake Superior will persist, and
with additional showers/storms moving into the region late
tonight/early Mon could expand the coverage and increase duration of
dense fog.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ243>245-
     248>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...Voss
AVIATION...lg
MARINE...Beachler



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