Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 161125
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
725 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

After yesterday`s hvy snow, snow will linger thru tonight with
additional accumulations warranting headlines for portions of the
fcst area. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show elongated mid-
level low centered near Chicago. In the wake of the hvy pcpn that
moved across Upper MI yesterday into last evening, mid-level dry
slot has pushed across much of the area, leading to some -fzdz
mainly central as temps in the moist layer are no lower than around
-10C. -fzdz appears to be most widespread where ne winds are
upsloping. Deeper moisture and another push of snow is spreading ne
into eastern Upper MI. To the w, a lake enhanced component to the
lingering synoptic snow is evident off western Lake Superior into nw
WI. This snow is streaming onshore just to the w of KIWD.

Patchy -fzdz should end during the morning as deeper moisture
rotates back into the area from the e. Snow will continue spreading
into the eastern U.P. today as shortwave swings nw in mid-level low
circulation. Overall, snow accumulations today are likely to fall
short of warranting continuation of a winter storm warning. Expect
an additional 3-5 inches over the eastern counties
(Luce/Schoolcraft) where a winter wx advy has been issued until 00z.
Synoptic snow will tend to diminish as it spreads farther w and
forcing weakens. However, under n to nnw winds, there will be an
increasing upslope component as the snow spreads into the n central
and nw fcst area this aftn/evening. Models are quite varied on the
thermal profile with some guidance cold enough to support
potentially decent lake enhancement. Will need to monitor this
aspect, but for now, have accumulations of 3-6 to isolated 8 which
falls short of warranting a winter storm warning continuing thru
tonight. Advy has been issued from Alger County to the Keweenaw
until 10z Tue. May need an advy tonight for Gogebic/Ontonagon if
synoptic snow shield maintains itself into the far w. With little
going on now, warning for Ontonagon/Gogebic has been dropped.
Remaining advys s central will expire as scheduled at 12z.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 511 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Lingering precip near Lake Superior will diminish on Tue, with only
another 1-2" expected in the N wind snow belts during the day.
Breezy conditions will continue, with patchy blowing snow along Lake
Superior.

System for Wed into Wed night still looks to stay S, bringing only
some minor QPF across the southern CWA, but that will be a rain/snow
mix.

No precip expected Thu through next Mon, but certainly is newsworthy
that temperatures will return to near normal by the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 724 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Low pres system spinning over the Great Lakes region will maintain
periods of snow with conditions varying between IFR and low MVFR
thru this fcst period at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. Not out of the question
that a few periods of LIFR could occur. There may be some
-fzdz at times at KSAW this morning.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 456 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the ne and
low pressure in the lower Great Lakes will continue the east to
northeast gales of 35-45kt tonight across Lake Superior along with
freezing spray. Winds will diminish below gale force Mon afternoon.
Winds for the rest of the week will be under 25kt.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ007-
     014-085.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ001-
     003>006.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning
     for MIZ010>013.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for LSZ162-
     240>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...Rolfson


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