-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
882
FXUS64 KMRX 281902
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
302 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dray and warm conditions continue.

2. Another night of gusty winds in the mountains and adjacent
foothills seems on tap. Gusts of 40-45 mph seems reasonable.

Discussion:

An upper trough will lift northeast from the central plains this
afternoon, into the upper midwest by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Ridging aloft will hang in there over the southeast through late
tonight before height falls begin to spread east across TN tomorrow
as the effects of the midwest trough begin to be seen. Overall, not
a lot of change in the sensible weather locally through the short
term period. We`ll remain dry across the forecast area as rain holds
off until the first parts of the long term period. And we should see
another day of above normal temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the
low 80s expected.

Admittedly, did not see the advisory level winds coming last night.
Cove Mountain gusted to around 50 mph last night, which was quite a
bit more than I would have expected. I noticed high resolution
guidance showing some downslope flow, but 40-50 mph winds were not
expected. Given tonight is virtually a carbon copy, am inclined to
hoist up another wind advisory for portions of the east TN mountains
again tonight. Once the boundary layer decouples and resulting H85
flow strengthens, guidance indicates we`ll see a repeat of this
situation, with high resolution model output once again showing
gusty winds spreading into the mountain wave-prone areas. Additional
support comes in the form of the SPC HREF output, which shows
ensemble mean wind gusts of 35-40mph in those same areas, and
ensemble max gusts in the 45 mph range. Certainly not a slam dunk,
but given what`s occurred the last two days, it seems reasonable to
issue another advisory.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued above normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

2. Active weather pattern to bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Friday through early next week.

Discussion:

The period begins Monday night with a cold front knocking on our
door from the west. Showers and some thunderstorms will increase in
coverage late Monday into Tuesday. SPC currently does not have us
under any convective threat besides general thunderstorms, but that
could change. I wouldn`t rule out any storm becoming strong,
however. Currently, CAPE values are much better towards the Gulf
Coast. Precipitation amounts to no more than three quarters of an
inch across our area. Low to mid 80 highs Monday will cool to around
climatological norms Tuesday.

Much of Wednesday into Thursday should be mostly dry with surface
high pressure just off the southeast coast and ridging extending up
from the Gulf. As a result, highs will push into the low to mid 80`s
Wednesday until the week`s end. Possibly upper 80`s on Thursday. For
many, that is approximately 10 degrees above normal for the end of
April.

The end of the week and into early next week becomes a bit out of
focus as a system that develops over the middle country sends a low
pressure system towards the Great Lakes with an attached cold front.
Chances for precip exist much of the weekend as the system
potentially stalls just to our southeast after moving through the
area around Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler over the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The 18z TAFs will be a persistence forecast since there`s little
change expected in the weather pattern. Continued southerly moist
flow should produce a temporary SCT-BKN025 deck at KCHA between
roughly 10z and 13z or so. Otherwise, VFR Conditions are expected
at all terminals. Only other forecast item of note will be the
occurrence of gusty winds again tomorrow at KCHA, with gusts of
18-20kt expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  83  64  77 /   0   0  70  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  83  62  76 /   0   0  40  80
Oak Ridge, TN                       56  83  62  76 /   0   0  50  80
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  82  56  75 /   0   0  30  80
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....KS
AVIATION...CD