407
FXUS01 KWBC 130821
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 15 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the northern Plains
to the upper Midwest, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday...

...Threat of heavy rain gradually abates across the southern
Appalachians to the Carolinas as a heavy rain event emerges across
the Hill Country to the Big Bend regions of Texas...

A strong upper-level high is forecast to build eastward across the
northern tier states toward New England over the next couple of
days.  The anomalous heatwave underneath this high resulted in
all-time record high temperatures across portions of the Great
Basin to the northern High Plains on Sunday.  As the high builds
eastward, triple-digit high temperatures will be widespread across
the northern Plains over the next couple of days, as heat soaring
well into the 90s spreads into the upper Midwest today before
reaching the Great Lakes and the Northeast on Tuesday along with
increasing humidity.  Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect
across a large portion of the Great Basin through the northern
Plains as Extreme Heat Watches and Heat Advisories are posted for
areas farther east into New England.  If you will be situated
within any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat,
stay hydrated, take frequent breaks and limit outdoor activities
if possible. A cold front will draw slightly cooler air eastward
from the Pacific Northwest into Montana and North Dakota over the
next couple of days dropping high temperatures into the 90s.

South of this anomalous upper high, a front is forecast to remain
nearly stationary through the southern Plains, the Deep South and
the Southeast.  Upper-level disturbances will then interact with
the wavy stationary front to produce repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across this corridor of the southern U.S.
Meanwhile, the heavy rain threat from the southern Appalachians to
the Carolinas early today will gradually abate as drier air
filters in from the north.  On the other hand near the western end
of the front, a heavy rain event is forecast to emerge across the
Hill Country to the Big Bend regions of Texas over the next couple
of days where clusters of thunderstorms could mutually amplify the
aforementioned upper-level disturbances to result in additional
heavy rainfall.  Please stay tuned to future updates on this
upcoming heavy rain event.

Farther west, an influx of monsoonal moisture will lead to an
uptick in daytime thunderstorms over portions of the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, which could lead to a few instances of
flash flooding and severe weather through at least midweek.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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