Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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351 FXUS66 KMTR 190628 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1128 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week. Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Satellite imagery shows stratus flowing inland from the coastal regions, while offshore, an offshore boundary just coming into the North Bay is eroding the stratus deck. The passage of a weak cold front earlier today will contribute to some clearing overnight and faster dispersal of the clouds Sunday morning. High resolution models are suggesting that even the Monterey-Salinas region, where the last two days have not seen any appreciable clearing of the clouds, could scatter out before sunrise tomorrow, but the fact that the observed satellite imagery is overperforming the model expectations is limiting confidence. High resolution models are also suggesting a chance for fog to develop in the North Bay tonight into early Sunday morning. At this time, not enough confidence in either scenario to change the forecast. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon ranging from the upper 50`s to mid 60`s at the coast to upper 60`s to mid 70`s across the interior (a few spots may reach into the upper 70`s). This is as a weak, dry frontal boundary moves across the region. Tonight, expecting less in the way of drizzle however cannot be ruled out in typically favored locations. Temperatures overnight will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s. In wake of today`s frontal passage, expecting tomorrow to be slightly warmer across the interior as low clouds will likely be quicker to dissipate. Thus, tomorrow we should see more upper 70`s inland while cooler conditions prevail near the coast (upper 50`s to mid 60`s). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Sunday night, we are expecting a greater potential for coastal drizzle across the San Francisco Peninsula and coastal areas of the Central Coast. A gradual warming trend is expected from Monday into Wednesday as the region remains between a ridge out over the Pacific and troughing to the east-northeast. Therefore, expecting more of the interior to reach the lower 80`s by Tuesday which is forecast to be the warmest day of the week. Meanwhile, low stratus will keep conditions cooler at the coast. Toward the latter half of the week, look for deeper troughing to directly impact the region. This will bring temperatures back below seasonal averages by Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions, other than overnight coastal drizzle, are expected to prevail through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 IFR and MVFR CIGs last into the mid to late morning for most TAF sites, but last longer for coastal areas and around the Monterey Bay. Winds stay light to moderate through the morning. Widespread VFR returns for the TAF sites into Sunday afternoon, but status lingers on the immediate coast. Expect moderate to gusty winds Sunday afternoon that last into the night. Coastal cloud cover moves slightly inland Sunday evening, affecting SNS and MRY. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light to moderate winds overnight with gusty westerly winds building into the afternoon. Wind gusts will reduce into Sunday night, and become moderate for the late night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs last through early Sunday afternoon with some moments of drizzle. CIGS recede back to the immediate coast into the afternoon, leading to VFR at the TAF sites. Winds stay light to moderate through the TAF Period. MVFR CIGs return early Sunday night. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 826 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 High pressure building in from the north will lead to increasing northerly winds over the coastal waters this weekend and early next week. Gale force gusts are likely north of Point Reyes through at least Monday. Gale force conditions will begin to spread southward over the outer waters later Sunday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds throughout the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea