Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000 ACUS11 KWNS 261814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261813 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261945- Mesoscale Discussion 0290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018 Areas affected...Southwestern into portions of central Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261813Z - 261945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Probabilities appear fairly low, but the evolution of an isolated severe storm or two may not be out of the question across parts of southwestern Georgia, perhaps as far north as the Macon area, through the 3-5 PM EDT time frame. DISCUSSION...As a fairly vigorous short wave impulse maintains an eastward progression through portions of the central Gulf Coast states, a few thunderstorms have recently initiated across far southeastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia. This appears on the southernmost periphery of stronger mid-level forcing for ascent, where the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that a seasonably modest influx of boundary layer moisture off the Gulf of Mexico is supporting weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg. Generally south of the mid-level cold core of the system, forecast soundings indicate that capping mid/upper-level layers may remain problematic to sustained vigorous thunderstorm activity. However, a window of opportunity may still exist for an isolated intensifying storm or two across parts of southwestern into central Georgia through about the 20-21Z time frame, before the mid-level wave begins to pivot northeastward toward the southern Appalachians. If this occurs, it will do so in a strongly sheared environment (near a 50-60+ kt 500 jet) capable of supporting supercell structures and at least some severe weather potential before encountering a more stable low-level environment across central Georgia. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/26/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32438432 32608359 31338385 30858495 31258519 32438432

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