368
FXUS01 KWBC 040740
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Sat May 04 2024

Valid 12Z Sat May 04 2024 - 12Z Mon May 06 2024

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains on Saturday and Southern Plains, Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern High Plains...

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern High Plains
will slowly march eastward to the Northeast to the Ohio Valley and
then to the Southern Plains by Monday. Moisture from the Western
Gulf of Mexico will pool along the boundary over central Texas,
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southern Plains through Sunday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe,
posing a significant threat.  Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern High Plains through Sunday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there
will be an increased risk of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes and hail two
inches or greater over the area. Moreover, showers and
thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and the southern mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Saturday.

By Sunday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases to a
Marginal Risk (level 1/5) over parts of the Southern Plains, the
Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley. A second area
of Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms will be over parts of the
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.  However, the threat of
excessive rainfall continues while moving eastward on Sunday,
maintaining the sense of ongoing threat. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Sunday into Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Northeast to the Southeast.

Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest/Northern California
will move eastward Saturday to the Northern/Central High Plains
and the Southern Rockies by Monday. The system will produce rain
over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on
Saturday morning. As the front moves farther inland, the snow
levels will decrease over parts of the Northwest and California.
Heavy snow will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains
overnight Saturday into Sunday and lighter snow over the Cascades.
Rain and higher-elevation snow will continue over parts of the
Pacific Northwest. The heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains
will mainly end on Sunday. Furthermore, snow will move over parts
of the Great Basin and the Central Rockies on Sunday.  Rain will
move over parts of the Northern Plains by Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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