Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000 FXUS01 KWBC 241954 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 Valid 00Z Fri May 25 2018 - 00Z Sun May 27 2018 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning... ...A wet weekend will be in store for the Southeast as heavy rain spreads northward from a developing tropical system in the Gulf... An area of low pressure has been observed drifting across Yucatan Peninsula and is forecast to become better organized as it tracks northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Florida and other southeast states will have long periods of rainfall as this approaches. Localized flash flooding may materialize as the event is underway. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall at this point, forecast certainty will rely on the confidence of the track this system will take. A low pressure system lifting north and east through the Central and Northern Plains will help generate scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms of the next couple of days. Conditions will be favorable for some of these storms to become severe. SPC has an area from the North Dakota/Minnesota border south to eastern Colorado as having a slight risk for severe weather on Friday, then shifting to the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A front near northern Maine will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Northern New England Friday afternoon into the evening hours. A developing upper-level low off the California Coast will slowly move inland over California into parts of the Great Basin Friday evening into Saturday. The coastal rain and inland showers/thunderstorms will expand into parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin overnight continuing into Friday evening/Saturday. Before the upper-level low develops, weak upper-level energy over parts of the Pacific Northwest will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Intermountain Region through late tonight. Campbell/Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$

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