Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --270 FXUS65 KABQ 050938 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 338 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 A windy and dry period will begin today and continue through Wednesday. This will keep a prolonged threat of high fire danger and the potential for rapid fire spread going through the middle of the week. A cold front will sweep through New Mexico tonight into early Monday morning, and winds will remain strong and gusty during the frontal passage. A few showers will also quickly race across northern New Mexico tonight, but these will not bring much in the way of appreciable precipitation. Temperatures will fluctuate each day, running a bit cooler on Monday, rising some on Tuesday, only to fall a few to several degrees on Wednesday. Temperatures then look to hover slightly below normal through Thursday and Friday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning to the forecast in north central to northeastern areas of New Mexico.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Today through Monday) Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Widespread low clouds east of the central mountain chain, as well as Santa Fe, will retreat from the west this morning finally dissipating along the eastern border toward midday. A broad longwave trough carving its way into the western US, with multiple shortwaves moving through it, will steer the polar jetstream over the forecast area today through Monday and beyond. Southwest wind gusts today should peak from 40-55 mph across the northwest two thirds of the forecast area, and from 30-40 mph across the southeast third. With this forecast package we will issue a Wind Advisory for the Chuska Mountains and Gallup area, as well as for Raton and Raton Pass, for this afternoon into the evening. The flow aloft looks to peak tonight as a Pacific cold front pushes through from the west, so winds won`t die down in the evening like they normally do. Will issue a High Wind Watch for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Raton Pass to Capulin area, and also Clines Corners for late this evening through Monday morning, where gusts should peak in the 50 to 70 mph range. In addition, scattered to isolated rain and snow showers are forecast this evening from the northern mountains westward, but any accumulations will be light. Westerly wind gusts Monday afternoon look to peak in the 45-55 mph range along and east of the central mountain chain, and from 35 to 45 mph further west. After high temperatures varying from near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today, readings will fall a few to 15 degrees in most places on Monday. Humidities will also be very low today through Monday with widespread fire weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Winds at the surface should decouple and reduce in speed Monday evening while the westerly flow aloft remains stiff. Currently, 700 mb winds are progged to range from 35 to 45 kt over much over the central mountain chain eastward through Tuesday morning, so there still could be some occasional mountain wave crashes, but most lower elevation sites should have a nocturnal lull. The upper low is shown to pivot into northeastern MT Tuesday. Closer to home, the speeds aloft do not alter all that much into the daytime Tuesday, broadly retaining speeds of 35 to 45 kt at 700 mb with the daily lee-side low setting up shop near the northeast corner of NM. This will drive a west to slightly southwest component that will boost temperatures a few degrees Tuesday afternoon while mostly clear skies prevail. The primary upper low will wobble over the Dakotas and northern NE Tuesday night into Wednesday while a shortwave trough drops west of the Rockies and then across the Four Corners area early in the day. This shortwave will then trek along the CO border through the daytime, dragging a bit of a northwesterly component and cooler air toward NM. It will keep winds strong well into Tuesday evening, but by the daytime Wednesday winds will not quite have the potential to be as strong as Tuesday. With the cooler air seeping in on Wednesday, vertical mixing heights will start to lower and a less optimal surface low placement is expected in the afternoon. A pattern shift finally looks to get underway into Thursday and Friday and it will likely be a welcome one, offering a break from the widespread persistent windy conditions. This will be the result of another shortwave that drops west of the Rockies again and pulls into the Great Basin as a broader cut-off low. This will draw in cooler and slightly more moist air into NM via the east Thursday and then more-so on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms would take shape over the northern mountains and adjacent highlands Thursday, expanding to the northeastern plains Friday. While ample directional wind shear would be present, surface dewpoints still look to be a bit too anemic for a robust severe weather event, but if moisture advection persists into Saturday as advertised that could nudge chances upward.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread low clouds with MVFR and IFR conditions will continue east of the central mountain chain for the remainder of the night with gradual improvement around mid morning on Sunday. A persistent southeast wind will probably draw the low clouds into Santa Fe, too, but confidence in the precise ceiling height in Santa Fe is only moderate since models aren`t picking up on the low clouds moving into that location. Confidence is also waning on the occurrence of 35 KT winds at KABQ, which continue to be possible for the next couple hours. Doppler radar depicts 35 KT east winds just off the deck over KABQ, so will keep the ongoing Airport Weather Warning for 35 KT winds in effect for the Sunport until 08Z. Otherwise, south and southwest winds will become strong on Sunday. The flow aloft will strengthen after sunset, so surface winds are not expected to die down in the evening like they normally do. && .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...FIRE GROWING PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A persistent fire growing pattern will then develop today through mid week as a broad longwave trough sets up over the western US with multiple shortwave troughs rotating through it. These will keep the flow aloft dry and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire weather conditions, except for some light rain and snow showers from the northern mountains westward this evening. With this forecast package will upgrade to a Red Flag Warning for Monday and issue a Fire Weather Watch areawide for Tuesday. The latest model guidance strengthened surface winds a few hours sooner over western areas on Monday, so the Red Flag Warning no longer has staggered start times between western and eastern areas that day. Models differ significantly in the track and timing of a low pressure system over the western US on Thursday, but there is some agreement on weaker winds that day with a break from critical fire weather conditions. A moist backdoor front will probably also push through the forecast area during the latter half of the work week with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but confidence on timing is low due to model differences.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 76 36 63 34 / 10 30 0 0 Dulce........................... 73 24 58 27 / 10 50 5 0 Cuba............................ 73 33 60 32 / 5 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 29 64 30 / 0 20 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 32 60 30 / 0 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 32 65 29 / 0 5 0 0 Quemado......................... 72 36 65 32 / 0 5 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 72 38 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 77 35 75 30 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 48 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 24 52 27 / 10 50 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 72 40 60 40 / 5 10 0 0 Pecos........................... 73 40 60 37 / 5 5 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 37 54 34 / 5 20 5 0 Red River....................... 64 29 52 28 / 5 20 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 28 52 29 / 5 10 5 0 Taos............................ 73 34 60 28 / 5 20 5 0 Mora............................ 71 37 60 36 / 10 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 79 43 68 38 / 5 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 75 41 62 37 / 5 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 78 41 66 35 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 47 70 42 / 0 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 82 47 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 47 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 47 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 46 75 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 47 72 41 / 0 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 84 46 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 47 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 84 47 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 44 67 41 / 0 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 47 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 86 50 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 42 62 41 / 0 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 43 66 40 / 0 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 77 42 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 40 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 74 39 64 36 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 44 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 54 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 49 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 70 44 64 34 / 10 5 0 0 Raton........................... 74 42 67 34 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 75 44 67 36 / 10 5 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 42 65 38 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 75 54 74 42 / 10 5 0 0 Roy............................. 73 49 70 41 / 10 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 82 54 76 43 / 10 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 79 49 72 42 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 81 54 77 44 / 10 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 79 57 80 47 / 5 10 0 0 Portales........................ 81 57 83 46 / 5 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 82 53 78 46 / 10 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 56 88 51 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 84 52 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 52 78 46 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106-109-120>124. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM MDT Monday for NMZ202-205. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227-228. High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday morning for NMZ213>215-223-227.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44