Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --533 FXUS65 KABQ 052110 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 310 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Windy and dry conditions will persist through midweek. This will lead to an extended period of high fire danger for much of northern and central New Mexico. A cold front moving through the area tonight into tomorrow will lead to markedly cooler temperatures Monday. Temperatures will rebound on Tuesday, only to fall back below normal Wednesday through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast on Thursday through the weekend, favoring northern New Mexico before expanding southward and eastward.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 Upper level closed low currently centered over northeast NV this afternoon will continue to trek east through the Central Rockies tonight and Monday. The combined jet core (Asian Pacific and subtropical jets) on its southern periphery will move over the northern two thirds of NM tonight with another wind maxima moving through, slightly farther south, on Monday. Strong to very strong south to southwest winds will continue for much of the forecast area overnight as a result. Upgraded the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for the Sangre de Cristo mountains and Bartlett/Johnson mesas and Raton Pass areas late tonight into Monday morning. Critical layer near mountain top level could result in mountain waves crashing to the lee of the eastern sub range peaks. Lower valley and basin locations should be able to decouple from the strong winds for several hours Monday morning, but they will be quick to ramp back up behind the surface cold frontal passage as winds aloft remain strong through the day and into Monday evening. Mainly isolated rain with snow showers above 6,500 feet or so are expected to move into far northwest and north central NM after midnight tonight, lingering until around sunrise or so. Cooler air will move in behind the frontal passage with areas in western and central NM cooling high temperatures on Monday 5 to 15 degrees F compared to today`s readings.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 As the 534dam H5 low whisks northward into the far northern Great Plains, a tight pressure gradient drapes itself over northern and central NM. The 120 kt H3 jet`s position favors CO Tuesday, but a stout swath of 55 kt H7 winds hug the northern mts in the afternoon. Meanwhile, a lee-side low deepens to 989mb, setting the stage for perhaps the windiest day of the stretch. The strongest winds will favor the Tusas and Sangre de Cristo Mts and their adjacent highlands in the afternoon. The upper low continues its dance around the Dakotas Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing winds to remain elevated overnight. The low finally disengages and pushes eastward on Wednesday, with cooler air following in its wake. Winds will still be breezy to windy on Wednesday but not nearly to extent of Tuesday`s winds. A secondary piece of energy breaks off in the low`s departure Wednesday night, oscillating over the Great Basin. This will offer a reprieve to the prolonged amplified winds and critically dry conditions. Cooler air and an influx of modest moisture will give rise to showers and thunderstorms Thursday, favoring the northern mts that afternoon and expanding southward and eastward on Friday and Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 South to southwest winds will increase areawide this afternoon. Winds aloft increase further this evening and overnight, keeping winds strong through the early morning hours Monday. A wind shift will also take place behind a mainly dry surface cold front moving from northwest to southeast through NM tonight. The potential continues for strong downslope winds to work their way down the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains at times tonight as a stable layer near mountain top layer sets up and helps bring wind momentum downward. Isolated rain with snow showers above approximately 6,000 feet move into northwest and north central areas after 06/06Z. VFR condtions return to all areas after 06/15Z Monday, but winds are forecast to ramp up quickly behind the front during the late morning Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY UNTIL 10 PM FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 11 PM AREAWIDE DUE TO STRONG WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... An expansive closed low moving east through the Central Rockies tonight and Monday will continue to result in widespread critical fire weather condtions through at least Tuesday and most likely through Wednesday. Strong south to southwest winds will continue overnight with a mostly dry cold front passing through the forecast area. Expect a wind shift late tonight into Monday morning from a south to southwesterly direction to westerly direction behind the cold front. West winds are then quick to kick in late Monday morning, continuing through Monday evening before diminishing somewhat Monday night. Tuesday continues to look like the peak day for critical fire weather conditions during the next week with minimum relative humidity in the single digits just about areawide for a good portion of the day. Winds decrease on Wednesday but remain strong enough to result in critical fire weather condtions for much of the forecast area. A backdoor front remains on track to put at least a temporary end to the critical conditions Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast for north central and northeast NM Friday and for much of the forecast area next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 36 62 34 71 / 40 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 24 57 24 65 / 70 5 0 0 Cuba............................ 32 58 31 69 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 29 63 28 71 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 32 59 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 64 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 35 63 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 42 69 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 38 64 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 75 30 77 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 51 25 59 / 60 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 40 59 39 68 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 39 59 39 69 / 5 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 34 52 34 61 / 20 5 0 0 Red River....................... 28 49 26 57 / 10 5 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 29 51 22 59 / 10 0 0 0 Taos............................ 33 59 27 68 / 10 0 0 0 Mora............................ 37 58 35 67 / 5 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 44 67 36 76 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 40 61 39 70 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 41 65 36 74 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 47 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 71 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 73 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 47 72 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 47 75 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 46 71 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 73 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 47 72 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 73 39 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 44 66 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 46 71 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 80 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 41 61 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 42 65 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 41 65 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 67 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 62 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 43 67 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 68 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 54 75 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 67 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 43 62 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 43 65 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 45 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 43 63 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 54 72 41 79 / 5 0 0 0 Roy............................. 50 68 40 76 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 55 75 41 83 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 71 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 55 75 42 84 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 57 79 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 Portales........................ 57 82 44 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 78 42 85 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 56 89 49 92 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 78 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 52 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-105-106- 109-120>124. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Wind Advisory until 2 AM MDT Monday for NMZ202-205. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227-228. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon MDT Monday for NMZ213>215-223-227.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...33