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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KABQ 222329 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Above normal temperatures areawide through Wednesday thanks to high
pressure overhead. A backdoor front brings slight cooling to far
northeast NM Tuesday and most of northeast NM Wednesday as it
retreats east into Texas. Winds begin picking up across the
highlands Wednesday peaking areawide Thursday as a disturbance moves
through the Four Corners region and central Rockies. Critical fire
weather conditions are expected on Thursday. Winds remain elevated,
especially across the central highlands and east central plains,
Friday behind Thursday`s system and ahead of the next system. This
system moves through the state Saturday and it`s more southerly
track will result in rain and mountain peak snow across northern and
western areas. Cooler temperatures and brisk west winds on Sunday
behind that system with some afternoon showers possible in far
northeast areas behind a backdoor front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A round of high based and shallow convection is starting across
portions of central and western NM and will result in virga and
perhaps a dry lightning strike or two into the early evening hours.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge will slowly amplify and move east
over the region through Tuesday night, bringing a renewed warming
trend. Tuesday will be the warmest day so far this year for most
northern and central NM locales, with above normal temperatures
forecast areawide. Albuquerque is forecast to hit the warmest high
so far this year with 83 degrees, Roswell with 93 and Santa Fe will
have it`s first 80 degree day of the year with the airport forecast
to hit 80. A weak backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern
plains late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, brining a gusty
wind shift, some low stratus and higher humidity. A few showers are
possible from the northern Sangre De Critos to near Raton Pass late
Tuesday thanks to moisture and forcing from the backdoor front. The
backdoor front may result in a brief gusty east canyon wind here in
Albuquerque late Tuesday night, but the latest model guidance is
showing light wind speeds of less than 10kts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The backdoor front mentioned in the short term will be in place
across the eastern plains Wednesday morning with a deck of low
clouds across the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
northeast and east central plains due to surface dewpoints in the
upper 30s and low 40s. The backdoor front gradually retreats into
Texas and low clouds gradually burn off come early Wednesday
afternoon thanks to ABL mixing tapping into increasing upper level
west to southwest flow ahead of a 566 dm upper low moving into the
southern CA coast. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler across
the east central plains Wednesday due to the morning cloud cover
from the backdoor front. Southwest winds will be breezy across the
northeast highlands due to skies clearing out quickest there and a
tighter surface pressure gradient in place from surface lee
troughing.

The sharpening dryline across the TX Permian Basin retreats west
onto the caprock across southeast NM come sunrise Thursday morning
ahead of the upper low now situated over Las Vegas, NV. It will
quickly mix east into west Texas come midday Thursday due to deep
ABL mixing ahead of the opening upper level trough over the Four
Corners region. The Pacific front will move through western and
central NM during the day Thursday resulting in cooler temperatures
compared to earlier in the week. The stronger winds aloft of 40 to
55 kts at the 500-700 mb level combined with the Pacific front and
deep mixing behind the dryline will result in a windy day with
widespread critical fire weather conditions (see fire weather
discussion below). The strongest winds will be across the northeast
and central highlands and south central mountains where Wind
Advisories will likely be required. Winds remain elevated across the
northern mountains and central highlands Thursday night due to
ridgetop level flow of 30 to 40 kts at the base of the upper
trough/low over the central Rockies.

The upper low ejects into the northern and central Great Plains
Friday with brisk zonal flow of 20 to 30 kts at 700 mb in it`s
wake. The strongest winds with gusts of up to 45 mph will be
across the central highlands and east central plains. Another day
of critical fire weather conditions is expected across the lower
RGV and eastern plains. Upper level flow backs more southwesterly
Friday night into Saturday ahead of the next upper level low over
the Pacific NW and Great Basin diving southeast over the Four
Corners. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles, GEFS and ENS, are now in
high agreement on a more southern track which brings better
chances for lower elevation rain and mountain peak snow and cool
temperatures across northern and western NM. Most of eastern NM
will unfortunately receive the downsloping winds resulting in
another day of critical fire weather conditions. The system exits
into the plains Sunday with brisk dry west flow in it`s wake. The
backdoor front on the backside of the upper low could sneak into
northeast NM Sunday afternoon and provide an isolated shower or
two.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR prevails through the TAF period with breezy to windy
southerly to southwesterly winds tapering off after sunset this
evening. A few spots will see winds last a bit longer to midnight
like KTCC. A cold front backing into northeastern NM will provide
a northerly to northeasterly wind shift early Tuesday morning,
reaching KRTN to KCAO by 14Z and potentially to KTCC between 14Z
to 18Z. There is a fair amount of uncertainty whether or not this
frontal boundary will reach KTCC, so expect updates to this
portion of the TAF as we get closer. Otherwise, breezy to locally
windy southerly to southwesterly winds return all areas except
northeastern NM behind the aforementioned cold front Tuesday
afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A warming and drying trend is in play as an upper level ridge swells
and moves east over the region. Winds will pick up some Wednesday and
bring spotty critical fire weather conditions. However, the more
significant day is Thursday as strong winds spread over the region
associated with an upper level trough approaching from over AZ. Very
dry, windy and unstable conditions with excellent mixing will
prevail across much of the area Thursday. Widespread critical fire
weather conditions are forecast, but will favor central and eastern
portions of the area. The trough will eject out of the Rockies
Thursday night, but strong winds will remain in it`s wake for Friday
as a stronger jet stream approaches from the west. Critical fire
weather conditions will likely redevelop Friday, but may be limited
to the eastern half of the area. A third round of critical fire
weather conditions is possible Saturday as an even more potent upper
level trough approaches and passes over the region. However, low
forecast confidence on critical fire weather conditions for Saturday
at this time due to model differences on timing of the upper air
feature. Stronger winds may persist in the wake of the departing
trough on Sunday, making for a 4th potential day in a row with
critical fire weather conditions which would likely be limited to
the east central plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  81  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  77  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  41  76  39  75 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  78  34  77 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  75  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  38  79  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  43  77  39  74 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  48  79  48  76 /  10   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  76  43  72 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  38  79  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  51  82  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  49  76  48  74 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  70  41  69 /   0   5   0   0
Red River.......................  34  63  34  66 /   0  10   5   0
Angel Fire......................  31  67  30  67 /   0  10   5   0
Taos............................  36  75  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  73  37  73 /   0   5   5   0
Espanola........................  44  81  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  77  47  77 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  43  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  81  54  80 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  83  51  82 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  85  50  84 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  83  51  82 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  86  49  84 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  84  50  83 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  48  85  48  83 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  84  49  83 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  86  48  83 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  51  81  51  78 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  83  51  82 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  88  51  86 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  75  47  72 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  48  78  47  75 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  79  43  77 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  80  38  80 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  41  77  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  44  78  45  76 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  78  43  76 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  81  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  46  74  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  40  69  38  71 /   0  10   5   0
Raton...........................  37  75  37  76 /   0  10   5   0
Springer........................  38  79  39  77 /   0  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  77  40  73 /   0   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  47  74  43  72 /   0   5   5   0
Roy.............................  44  79  42  74 /   0  10   5   0
Conchas.........................  46  86  47  80 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  43  84  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  47  87  46  75 /   0   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  47  86  49  77 /   0   0   5   0
Portales........................  47  87  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  87  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  93  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  85  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24