Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221151 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Low cigs and patchy fog sloshing around east-central and northeast NM
this morning will taper off aft sunrise. The exception may be around
KCAO where persistent, weak low level convergence continues thru 20Z.
Otherwise, expect VFR all areas thru tonight with mid and high cloud
cover building north and east across the region. A couple light rain
showers or virga may develop near the high terrain of northern and
western NM by late afternoon.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Low clouds across the northeastern plains will burn off after sunrise
today. Temperatures warm today and through Monday with another
backdoor front pushing into eastern New Mexico and through the
central mountain chain Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are expected
across the east Tuesday with a chance for afternoon storms mainly
along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday evening and
night. A few slow moving afternoon storms are possible Wednesday
over the higher terrain, with another backdoor front pushing through
eastern New Mexico Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor bdry has pushed to the central mtn chain and has left
behind another round of low clouds across northeastern NM. The low
clouds and any patchy fog should burn off shortly after sunrise. A
shortwave ridge will brush southern NM allowing temperatures to warm
5-10F above yesterday`s highs. Meanwhile, a weak baggy trough will
enter into western and central NM by this afternoon, bringing
increased cirrus coverage. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated
tstorm over the higher terrain late this afternoon/evening, but
daytime heating shouldn`t be high enough to allow this.

Another ridge builds in Monday with a positively tilted trough
digging through the northern Rockies. Westerly flow aloft will set up
over the CO Rockies and over the Sangre`s, with a lee sfc trough
developing over NE New Mexico. Enough sfc moisture should be spun up
around the sfc low to spark a few showers/storms from Raton to
Clayton Monday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, Monday will be a
pleasant, dry, and warm day for most of New Mexico. The mid-level
ridge holds on Tue, with the positively tilted trough skirting NE
New Mexico Tue night kicking down a strong backdoor front across the
east. The forecast continues to show this backdoor front pushing
through the central mtn chain late Tue bringing a decent gap wind to
SAF and ABQ. Showers and a few tstorms are likely along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo`s from the upslope flow. Tuesday`s
highs from Santa Fe down roughly U.S. 285 to Roswell will depend
heavily on the progression of the backdoor front. The backdoor front
will push to the AZ border by early Wednesday with enough trapped sfc
moisture to spark a few afternoon t-storms off the higher terrain
Wed afternoon.

Model discrepancy continues to degrade forecast confidence for the
latter half of next week. However, it does appear another backdoor
front will push through the east and the central mtn chain Thu. The
upper level features are another matter with the GFS holding the
ridge over NM and sparking off afternoon t-storm activity Thu. The
ECMWF breaks down the ridge and digs down a stronger positively
tilted trough into NM Thu into Fri.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of low clouds and patchy fog is impacting east-central
and northeast NM early this morning. Low level easterly flow will
continue across the plains today with min humidity remaining above
25%. The western half will stay dry and sunny with light winds and
increasing mid and high cloud cover. Excellent recoveries will occur
again tonight across the east.

Monday will feature a drying and warming trend over the entire area
with slightly stronger westerly flow. Min humidity will average 10
to 15% across central and western NM and 15 to 20% across the east.
Excellent ventilation will occur in all areas. A couple gusty rain
showers or virga are possible for the northern high terrain and far
northeast plains late in the day.

A strong back door cold front will enter eastern NM Monday night and
trend high temps below normal for Tuesday across the east. Low level
easterly upslope flow into the Sangre de Cristo Mts will increase
the chances for rain showers by the afternoon. Central and western
NM will again remain dry with above normal temperatures. Vent rates
will deteriorate slightly for the east and remain excellent for the
west.

The front across eastern NM will surge west through the Rio Grande
Valley Tuesday night and usher moisture westward to the AZ state
line Wednesday. This will trend temps cooler for the western half
with higher min humidities. Ventilation will deteriorate even more
Wednesday with poor values across the east. Models are attempting to
develop isolated dry showers/storms along the central mt chain by
late Wednesday afternoon.

A more impressive surge of moisture is still expected to enter the
state on another strong back door front Thursday. Guidance continues
to squeeze out better coverage of wetting precipitation and cooler
temperatures for much of NM Thursday through Saturday.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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