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127
FXUS65 KABQ 291121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warmer and drier conditions are expected today and Tuesday. A few
breezes are also anticipated. Windier conditions return on
Wednesday with the concern for critical fire weather conditions
across eastern New Mexico. A pair of cold fronts will slide
through the state Thursday and Thursday night. Much drier air will
yield sub-freezing temperatures Thursday night across much of
northern and western New Mexico. Gulf moisture will return to
eastern New Mexico Friday and Saturday potentially resulting in
showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Clouds from yesterday`s trailing shortwave have basically dissipated
this morning. It will be a splendid late April day with quasizonal
flow aloft, clear skies, and high temperatures near to around 5
degrees above average. Southwest winds will be breezy at times
across the central and northeast highlands this afternoon and early
evening due to a weak lee side trough. Clear skies and slightly
above normal lows overnight. The warmup continues Tuesday with high
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average for most and 10 to 14
degrees above average across northeast NM. Southwest to west winds
will be a touch more breezy across northeast and east central NM
Tuesday afternoon due to a weak shortwave trough ejecting into the
central Great Plains and the resultant development of a 995-997 mb
surface lee low over far northeast NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet conditions are expected Tuesday night. On Wednesday, west to
southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of the approaching trough
from the northwest. Forecast mixing heights suggest much of
central and eastern NM will mix to near 500mb where wind speeds
will be 30-40kts. With this momentum mixing down to the surface
and a surface low deepening to near 991mb near the NM/OK/CO
border, it should result in a widespread breezy to windy day
across the state. At this time, it appears wind speeds will stay
below advisory criteria. Temperatures will be similar to Tuesday,
with most areas around 5 to 15 degrees above normal.

The aforementioned trough will slide southeastward across CO and
northern NM on Thursday. An associated Pacific cold front will
race from northwest to southeast during the daytime hours. Very
dry air is expected behind this front, with dewpoints likely to
plummet into the single digits. Therefore, despite the cooler
temperatures, humidity values will remain around 10% or less. With
clear skies, light winds and these low humidities, excellent
radiational cooling will allow low temperatures Thursday night
into Friday morning to drop like a rock along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley. Farmington`s average last freeze date is today, and
with sub-freezing temps forecast for Friday morning, it`s likely a
Freeze Warning may be needed as we near the end of the week. Taos
may see a hard freeze and Espanola, Santa Fe and Moriarty may also
see a freeze, but their average last freeze dates are later in
May. Nonetheless, if you have already started planting, you`ll
want to take precautions to protect sensitive vegetation before
heading to bed Thursday night.

Meanwhile, the backdoor segment of the cold front will push into
northeast NM Thursday afternoon, then will continue to slide south
and west across the plains and will likely reach the east slopes
of the Central Mt Chain Thursday night. It`s not as dry behind
the backdoor segment, and even a few showers and thunderstorms may
develop across far northeast NM Thursday afternoon and evening.

The backdoor segment of the front will mix out on Friday, and
subsequently, southerly flow will act to draw up Gulf moisture
into eastern NM. Though showers and thunderstorms will be few on
Friday, Saturday could be a different story across eastern NM. As
moisture continues to advect northward into the plains, a weak
shortwave should eject east-northeast across AZ and NM. The
shortwave could help initiate storms along the pseudo-dryline
during the afternoon hours. There are a lot of caveats with this
scenario including how much moisture is available as well as the
timing of the shortwave. More moisture could yield a few strong
storms, but less could result in more garden variety storms but
with strong wind gusts. Low level moisture will diurnally slosh
back to the west Saturday night, but westerly flow aloft mixing
down to the surface on Sunday should mix much of the moisture out.
A few storms will remain possible however, especially near the
Texas border.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions and SKC prevail. Light southwest to west breezes
develop in the afternoon. West winds will be a bit breezy at
times across the central and northeast highlands between KCQC and
KLVS through the early evening due to being in the vicinity of a
weak surface lee trough. Light winds areawide after sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR EASTERN NM...

Breezy conditions today and Tuesday afternoon across northeast and
east central NM amongst a warming and drying (lower humidity)
trend areawide. With breezes generally peaking around 15 to 25
mph, critical fire weather concerns are not expected today and
Tuesday. Changes arrive Wednesday as southwest to west winds
increase areawide ahead of an upper level disturbance over the
Great Basin. The northeast and east central highlands and plains
appear to observe the strongest winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.
Critical fire weather conditions will be expected thanks to these
winds combining with very low humidity values of 6 to 10 percent
and high Haines values. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for all of eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and early
evening. The entire Rio Grande Valley stretch will also be another
secondary area of concern. There is still some slight differences
with the track and timing of the disturbance aloft, but it should
be over Colorado by Thursday along with associated Pacific and
backdoor fronts moving into the state. Temperatures will be a
touch cooler areawide with higher moisture across northeast NM
behind the backdoor front. However, west winds will still be
elevated across east central NM along with low relative humidity
values of 6 to 10 percent just south of the front. Therefore
another day of critical fire weather conditions is possible across
this area.

The backdoor front and the higher moisture behind it surges through
all of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning putting
critical fire weather conditions to bed. Some elevated fire weather
conditions are possible across the southwest mountains and lower Rio
Grande Valley Friday afternoon due to slightly breezy southwest
winds and minimum relative humidity values below 10 percent.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico takes over eastern NM Friday night
into Saturday morning with chances for wetting showers and storms
during the 2nd half of Saturday due to a weak disturbance. Warmer
and drier conditions look to return Sunday as the Gulf moisture gets
pushed east into Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  41  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  67  33  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  67  37  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  70  33  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  66  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  71  34  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  70  37  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  72  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  69  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  75  35  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  79  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  62  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  67  46  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  67  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  62  40  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  59  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  60  28  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  68  34  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  67  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  74  42  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  69  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  72  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  75  50  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  76  48  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  78  46  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  77  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  78  44  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  77  48  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  78  44  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  78  47  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  78  44  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  72  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  77  48  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  80  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  66  45  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  70  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  71  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  74  36  79  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  69  39  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  70  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  70  43  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  68  46  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  40  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  72  37  80  39 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  74  39  81  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  41  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  74  48  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  72  45  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  81  47  88  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  78  46  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  82  47  90  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  49  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  82  48  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  82  47  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  87  52  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  78  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...71