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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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000
FXUS65 KABQ 170532 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1132 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Breezy west winds stick around the next couple days as temperatures
soar to the highest values of the season. A backdoor front will
slosh back and forth across eastern NM Wednesday night through the
weekend, resulting in increased cloud cover and below average
temperatures east of the central mountain chain. A few showers and
storms, as well as patchy fog are all possible across the east
late week into the weekend with the greatest likelihood on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The upper low responsible for yesterday`s winds is currently
churning across eastern NE on a course for the Midwest. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough is swinging into the northern Baja and southwestern
AZ this evening, set to follow in the path of the upper low. The
weak shortwave will pass across NM tonight with a slackening
pressure gradient aloft bringing light and variable winds amongst
clear skies. A rogue shower may pass through the northern Sangre de
Cristo Mts this evening into early tonight but elsewhere will remain
dry. Minimum temperatures will settle near to well above normal. As
a potent upper low tours the US/CAN border tomorrow, a tightening H5
pressure gradient will bring breezy conditions to the northern mts
and portions of the central highlands in the afternoon. Sunny
conditions and southwesterly sfc flow will allow for daytime highs
to climb 5F to 10F compared to today`s readings. Light and variable
winds will prevail overnight with low temperatures trending a few
degrees higher than Tuesday night`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The backdoor front will struggle to push westward past the TX border
on Thursday given the zonal flow draped over the state. However,
overnight the boundary should be able to surge westward to the edge
of the central mountain chain. Upslope flow could help to generate a
few sprinkles across the east, but this initial surge won`t contain
enough moisture for widespread precipitation. Fog potential
increases Friday night into early Saturday as deeper Gulf moisture
creeps up into southeastern and east-central NM. This will likely
make Friday night through Saturday night the wettest time during
this period. PoPs have increased, particularly across the southeast
which makes sense given the high confidence in PWATs of at least 1-2
standard deviations above average shown in ensemble guidance. The
deterministic GFS is shows a weak upper-low moving directly overhead
on Saturday which would result in scattered to potentially
widespread showers and storms and even a few severe storms.
Confidence in this scenario is low because the signal is completely
washed out in cluster analysis and anomalous ridging is actually
favored by most EC members.

There is high likelihood (>70% chance) that ridging will develop
over the West Coast and Great Basin early next week. In combination
with a surface high over the Great Plains, this would help moisture
stick around across eastern NM. Afternoon thunderstorm activity is
possible along the dryline in the eastern plains if the western US
ridge doesn`t become too broad or powerful.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A weak shortwave trough moving east over the region thru Wednesday
will allow west/southwest breezes of 20 to 30 kt to peak between
19Z and 23Z. High level turb is also expected across the airspace
the next 24 hrs. Otherwise, expect VFR all terminals with passing
high clouds later in the TAF period.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM TODAY...

A storm system passing well to our north along the US/CAN border
will allow for increased winds amongst relative humidity in the
teens Wednesday and Thursday afternoons across northern New Mexico.
This will create elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
across portions of the Upper Rio Grande Valley, with the potential
for localized critical fire weather conditions across the zone on
Thursday. Elsewhere on Wednesday and Thursday, widespread low double
digit and single digit RH will prevail amongst locally breezy
conditions. A backdoor front will bring relief to critically dry
conditions across eastern New Mexico Thursday into Friday, allowing
for min RH to increase into the 20 to 30 percent range. A shortwave
trough will pass across northern and central New Mexico on Saturday,
bringing further increased moisture and the potential for showers
and thunderstorms, with the best coverage favoring areas east of the
central mountains. The west will remain critically dry through the
weekend, with min RH in the low double digits and generally light
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  76  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  29  71  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  33  72  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  30  75  33  76 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  71  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  30  75  34  78 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  34  74  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  41  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  36  73  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  32  78  34  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  84  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  29  65  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  41  71  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  71  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  35  65  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  28  62  33  64 /  10   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  23  63  28  65 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  29  72  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  34  71  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  37  79  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  40  72  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  37  76  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  77  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  79  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  43  82  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  80  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  40  84  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  42  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  39  82  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  41  81  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  39  82  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  44  76  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  85  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  71  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  42  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  39  74  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  32  76  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  36  72  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  40  75  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  47  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  37  74  36  63 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  33  78  35  74 /   5   0   0   0
Springer........................  35  79  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  75  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  44  79  43  62 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  40  79  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  84  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  81  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  43  87  46  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  47  86  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  46  87  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  44  86  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  49  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  46  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  83  50  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
National Weather Service National Headquarters
