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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212025
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
225 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Warmer temperatures returns to eastern New Mexico on Monday thanks
to drier southwest flow. Some virga showers and dry storms are
possible across the west central high terrain Monday afternoon.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week, expect for locations in
northeast NM behind a backdoor front. Winds begin picking up
Wednesday peaking Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Four
Corners region. Critical fire weather conditions are expected on
Thursday. Winds remain elevated Friday into Saturday behind
Thursday`s system and ahead of the next system. There is significant
uncertainty to how far south this next system tracks, but a more
southern track could give some precipitation, rather than wind, to
northern and western areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Clouds have built up across west central NM and virga or perhaps a
few sprinkles are now occurring this afternoon. Enough instability
exists for a lightning strike or two in this area through early
evening, but precipitation amounts will generally be a few
hundredths or less.  Meanwhile, the low stratus across eastern NM is
slowly eroding and should continue to do so through the afternoon.
It`s possible that the low stratus will return tonight, but
shouldn`t be as widespread as low level winds continue to veer
around to the south and southwest. If low clouds occur again, they
will be favored along the east slopes of the Central Mtn Chain. The
east canyon wind in Albuquerque this eve and overnight should also
not be as strong due to these winds veering around.

On Monday, weak upper level ridging will persist. Much like today,
there is potential for a few showers/sprinkles across west central
NM as well as a lightning strike or two, though the latest CAMs
aren`t as enthused about this idea. Otherwise, expect temperatures
to rise.  Temperatures across the plains will be some 20 to 25
degrees warmer than today since the abundant cloud cover is not
expected again and downsloping will allow for compressional warming.
Temperatures west of the Central Mt Chain will warm as well, but on
the order of 3 to 8 degrees.

South to southwesterly breezes will remain elevated Monday night
across eastern NM, which will keep low temperatures quite warm. Most
low temp readings will be around 10 degrees above normal across the
east. Otherwise, it will be a quiet night with any shower or
thunderstorm activity waning in the evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Weak ridging will be overhead the state Tuesday with pretty light
west winds for most. It will be the warmest day of the week as a
result with low to mid 80s across western, central and east central
NM and upper 80s to low 90s across the lower RGV and southeast
plains. Meanwhile, a backdoor front, in association with a upper
level shortwave over the Great Lakes, moves into northeast NM during
the morning hours resulting in a northeast wind shift and cooler
temperatures in the 70s. A few showers and storms could be possible
along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo mountains Tuesday
afternoon due to the higher PWATS of around 0.5 to 0.6 inches and
the upslope flow behind the backdoor front. Uncertainty exists to
how far west the backdoor front makes it Tuesday night with the GFS
stopping it across the central highlands and the ECMWF and the NAM
pushing it through the gaps into the RGV valley. The NBM leans more
towards the ECMWF and NAM. The NAM does have a decent east wind of
23 kts come 06Z Wednesday, so this will be something to keep an eye
on. The backdoor front retreats quickly east into Texas come
Wednesday afternoon thanks to increasing upper level west to
southwest flow ahead of a 566 dm upper low moving into the southern
CA coast. Southwest winds will be breezy across northeast NM due to
a tighter surface pressure gradient from surface lee troughing.

The sharpening dryline across Texas retreats west onto the caprock
across southeast NM come sunrise Thursday morning ahead of the upper
low over southern CA and NV. It will quickly mix east into west
Texas come midday Thursday due to deep ABL mixing ahead of the
opening upper level trough over the Four Corners region. The Pacific
front will move through western and central NM during the day
Thursday resulting in cooler temperatures compared to earlier in the
week. The stronger winds aloft combined with the Pacific front will
result in a windy day with widespread critical fire weather
conditions (see fire weather discussion below). The strongest winds
will be across the south central mountains. Winds remain elevated
across the northern mountains and central highlands Thursday night
due to strong upper level flow at the base of the upper trough/low
over the central Rockies. The upper trough/ low ejects into the
northern and central Great Plains Friday with brisk zonal flow in
it`s wake. Upper level flow backs more southwesterly next Saturday
ahead of the next upper level trough over the Pacific NW and Great
Basin. There is high uncertainty/low confidence to how far south
this next upper level trough digs. A majority of the GFS and
Canadian ensembles (~60 to 70%) support a shallower trough with
precip remaining confined to Colorado and more wind across New
Mexico. On the other hand, the ECMWF ensembles (~70%) support a
deeper trough resulting in more precip and cooler temperatures
across northern and western NM and thus less wind.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Low stratus (IFR to MVFR) persists for most locations along and
east of the Central Mountain Chain, but the fog has dissipated.
These low cigs will slowly erode through the afternoon, but there
is potential for them to return overnight though not as
widespread. Best chances overnight will be along the east slopes
of the Central Mtn Chain. Otherwise, the east wind at KABQ has
relaxed late this morning and will become southeasterly for much
of the aftn. Another east wind is possible tonight, but it will
not be as strong as last night. Otherwise, expect a few south to
southeasterly breezes areawide this afternoon with gusts up to
25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 225 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A few dry showers and thunderstorms are possible through the evening
across west central NM. Otherwise, today will be the last relatively
cool day before a big warm up on Monday. Similarly to today, a few
dry showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon
across west central NM. Meanwhile, temperatures will warm 20-25
degrees over today`s readings across the east. Tuesday should be
quiet, though a backdoor cold front will slide into northeast NM
during the afternoon, increasing RH and winds as well as providing
lift for a few showers and thunderstorms over the Sangre de Cristo
Mtns. Breezy westerly winds will prevail elsewhere. The
aforementioned front will slowly mix out on Wednesday, but will keep
RH elevated and winds relatively low. However, breezy conditions
across the west will allow for elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions. A storm system will approach NM Thursday morning
before crossing northern NM Thursday afternoon and evening. West to
southwest winds will increase areawide while very dry air moves into
the area. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected.
Critical conditions will be least likely across the Northern
Mountains and Northwest Plateau. Continued breezy to windy
conditions are expected on Friday after the system exits. Critical
fire weather conditions are likely once again across portions of
eastern NM. Another storm system is in the offing for the weekend.
More wind and precipitation will be likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Farmington......................  42  81  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  75  37  77 /   0   5   0   0
Cuba............................  36  75  41  76 /   0  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  34  79  37  79 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  37  74  41  74 /   0   5   0   0
Grants..........................  36  77  38  80 /   0  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  75  41  77 /   5   5   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  74  50  79 /   5   5   5   0
Datil...........................  40  74  44  75 /  20  10   5   0
Reserve.........................  35  78  36  80 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  70  36  71 /   0   5   0   5
Los Alamos......................  43  72  50  74 /   0  10   5   0
Pecos...........................  35  74  41  75 /   5   5   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  39  69  41  70 /  10   5   0  10
Red River.......................  31  65  34  66 /  10   5   5  20
Angel Fire......................  27  66  30  67 /   5   5   0  10
Taos............................  32  73  36  76 /   0   5   0   5
Mora............................  33  71  39  74 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  41  79  45  83 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  42  73  46  78 /   5   5   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  40  77  44  80 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  77  55  82 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  49  78  54  84 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  80  51  86 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  46  79  52  84 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  46  81  50  87 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  81  52  85 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  45  80  50  86 /   0   5   0   0
Corrales........................  45  80  51  86 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  80  50  86 /   0   5   0   0
Placitas........................  45  78  53  80 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  80  52  84 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  82  52  89 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  71  50  74 /   0   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  44  74  49  77 /   0   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  38  74  46  79 /   0   5   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  76  40  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  35  72  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  41  74  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  37  73  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  42  74  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  38  71  48  74 /   0   5   0   5
Capulin.........................  34  75  41  69 /   0   5   0   5
Raton...........................  33  78  39  75 /   0   0   0   5
Springer........................  32  79  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  35  74  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  80  47  73 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  36  78  46  77 /   0   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  39  81  47  84 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  36  79  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  40  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  39  77  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  38  78  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  37  77  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  43  80  50  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  37  78  51  86 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  36  76  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34