Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --003 FXUS65 KABQ 080906 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 306 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Another day of windy and dry conditions is forecast today with high fire danger and the potential for rapid fire spread. Temperatures will run a few degrees cooler today due to a another weak cold front that is passing through. As the work week comes to a close Thursday and Friday, moisture will start to seep back into parts of New Mexico from the east, and this could lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning to the forecast, mainly in north central to northeastern areas of New Mexico. Fortunately, much less wind is forecast with the exception of the eastern Albuquerque metro area where a gusty east canyon wind will surge in, particularly Thursday night into Friday morning. Elsewhere the lighter winds should reduce the fire danger that has been so high lately. Additional moisture and an approaching disturbance from the west could keep more showers and thunderstorms in the forecast this weekend, primarily over north central to northeastern areas.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Today through Thursday) Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 New Mexico remains under the southern edge of a large synoptic scale troughing pattern over the western and central CONUS, highlighted by a large 540dm H5 low centered over western ND/SD. Shortwave perturbations within this larger troughing pattern have sent down a modest backdoor cold front through northeastern NM this morning where forecast high temperatures today will be 5F to 10F colder than yesterday. Another cold front is making its way through northwestern NM where highs will fall more sharply into the 60s around Farmington. Dry and windy conditions return areawide by the early afternoon as stronger westerlies aloft mix back down to the surface. These very dry westerly winds will push the aforementioned backdoor front eastward into TX. Very dry conditions highlighted by minimum humidity once again falling into the single-digits will be widespread this afternoon. Patchy blowing dust will be possible again as a result. The strongest winds look to focus near and around the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains where peak gusts of 45 to 55 mph will be possible. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted with this forecast package for this area as a result. Winds decouple Wednesday evening, allowing a resurgent backdoor cold front to invade eastern NM. Strong easterly winds behind front are expected to push through the gaps of the central mountain chain Thursday morning with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible at ABQ and Santa Fe. Meanwhile, calmer conditions and clearer skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling over western and northern NM. Many locales in this area will see Thursday morning lows fall to near or below freezing. This will include Farmington which is past its climatological average last freeze date. A Freeze Watch will be laid down for the Northwest Plateau for Thursday morning. Thursday will see the changing weather pattern begin to yield shifts in sensible weather conditions. Easterly upslope flow at the surface through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains undercutting a strengthening divergent southwesterly flow ahead of an upper low digging into UT will yield showers and a few thunderstorms over the northern mountains near CO. Further cooler weather across the eastern plains and increasing PoPs over the northern mountains and adjacent areas will be the rule heading into the long term period.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Surface high pressure will build stronger to the east of the Rockies Thursday evening, enhancing the gradient between the Rio Grande and the eastern plains. The upper low cutting off and retrograding toward the Great Basin will only help draw these surface features into motion. This will induce a stronger surge of east winds into central areas with an acceleration through gaps and canyons. Winds in the eastern ABQ metro look to be the strongest, potentially exceeding 60 mph, so a High Wind Watch has been hoisted. Into Friday, surface winds retain an east southeasterly component over much of central and eastern NM with surface dewpoints remaining in the 30`s and 40`s. At this point there will be some faint large scale ascent starting to enter the area, but nothing that is too appreciable, as the low will still be near the Las Vegas, NV vicinity. Isolated to scattered storms are still expected to develop in the modestly unstable air with upslope assisting on east southeast faces of mountains within northern NM. Ingredients come together for a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the remnants of the southern NV low are now looking to be set into and eastward motion a bit sooner. While the feature will be weakening and filling in, it could still offer some scant dynamics while low layer moisture advection continues with a bit of upslope and continued modest instability. Some of the eastern plains could see some upper 40`s to low 50`s dewpoints which would increase soaking rainfall potential with the best juxtaposition of forcing/upslope extending from north central to east central NM where POPs are trending upward. The low is now shown to exit to the east by Sunday (per the GFS) or Monday (per the ECMWF), carrying the best chances for showers and thunderstorms to the northeast before tapering off. Timing with the cessation of precip is still uncertain due to model differences, but even with a full departure, enough moisture could be left behind for at least isolated to scattered showers and storms. A weak and mostly dry Pacific low could get steered inland by the subtropical jet by Tuesday, and then into the middle of next week a longer wave trough may carve itself out over the middle of the country.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Westerly winds remain breezy across parts of northern and central NM this hour. LLWS will be a concern for a few terminals where winds have decoupled at the surface, including KABQ and KAEG through 10Z to 12Z Wednesday morning. A dry cold front will bring a northwesterly wind shift to western and central terminals through Wednesday morning. These winds turn back westerly by Wednesday afternoon with breezy to gusty and dry conditions area wide Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Sky conditions remain clear, outside of a sct-bkn mid-level cloud deck across central and eastern NM Wednesday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 232 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 ...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY FOR EASTERN NM AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY... Despite somewhat improved conditions from recent days, very dry westerly winds will push a backdoor front back into TX from northeastern NM. This will usher in another round of widespread critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM, also including the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph combined with unstable conditions and single-digit humidity will allow for rapid fire spread from any new spark today. Elevated to locally critical conditions will exist elsewhere across central and western NM with wind speeds there staying just below critical fire weather thresholds. A shift to cooler and wetter conditions arrives Thursday as a backdoor front surges through eastern NM producing a strong east canyon wind through the gaps of the central mountain chain. Very strong gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be possible immediately below Tijeras Canyon in eastern Albuquerque. An upper level storm system digging into the desert southwest in combination with the surface cold front will produce increased showers and a few thunderstorms favoring central NM and the northern mountains each afternoon through the end of the week into the weekend. Eastern and northern mountain areas will generally see cooler temperatures, wetter conditions and poor to fair ventilation during this timeframe, while west-central areas will remain dry with excellent ventilation and continued westerly prevailing winds.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Farmington...................... 61 30 71 42 / 0 0 0 20 Dulce........................... 60 24 66 32 / 0 0 30 40 Cuba............................ 59 32 66 38 / 0 0 10 20 Gallup.......................... 65 29 69 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 63 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 68 30 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 68 36 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 72 42 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 68 37 68 35 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 74 31 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 78 42 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 55 26 60 31 / 0 0 40 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 41 63 40 / 0 0 10 30 Pecos........................... 62 38 62 38 / 0 0 10 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 56 37 56 36 / 0 5 30 50 Red River....................... 53 27 51 29 / 0 10 50 60 Angel Fire...................... 55 24 53 32 / 0 5 30 50 Taos............................ 62 29 63 35 / 0 0 20 40 Mora............................ 62 33 57 33 / 0 5 20 40 Espanola........................ 69 37 72 41 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Fe........................ 64 41 66 43 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 38 68 42 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 72 48 73 47 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 74 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 77 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 73 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 78 35 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 73 43 76 46 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 77 34 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 74 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 77 35 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 68 43 71 45 / 0 0 0 10 Rio Rancho...................... 73 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 83 46 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 64 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 67 41 68 43 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 68 36 68 41 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 66 36 63 38 / 0 0 0 20 Mountainair..................... 70 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 72 38 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 70 41 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 64 35 55 33 / 0 5 20 30 Raton........................... 68 36 59 36 / 0 5 20 40 Springer........................ 69 38 62 38 / 0 5 20 30 Las Vegas....................... 66 36 60 35 / 0 0 10 30 Clayton......................... 73 43 64 40 / 0 10 10 20 Roy............................. 71 43 63 40 / 0 5 10 30 Conchas......................... 80 47 73 46 / 0 0 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 76 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 20 Tucumcari....................... 81 44 73 44 / 0 0 0 10 Clovis.......................... 81 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 83 45 76 46 / 0 5 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 81 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 10 Roswell......................... 90 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 81 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 46 78 43 / 0 0 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for NMZ201. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123-125-126. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for NMZ219. Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212-214-215-223-229.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24