Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 171730
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Areas of blowing dust already showing up on GOES-16 satellite
imagery late this morning along and ahead of the cold front in
northwest NM. As stronger winds aloft reach the surface this
afternoon, blowing dust is expected across much of northern and
central NM with visibility reductions generally in MVFR category
between 3 and 5 statute miles. Visibility may fall below 3 statute
miles at times in the eastern plains this afternoon through early
evening. West to west southwest winds will gust between 35 knots and
50 knots through late this afternoon west of the divide and through
early this evening east of the divide. Winds will gradually diminish
during the evening and become light after midnight, as high pressure
moves in from the west. Outside of visibility restrictions due to
blowing dust, VFR conditions will prevail through midday Wednesday.

28

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1105 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018...
.UPDATE...
Added the Gallup zone to the high wind warning with the Chuska
mountains as they are gusting to criteria. Also warmed up some highs
from the RGV eastward, including KABQ for today. Updated ZFP already
transmitted.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018...
...VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong and potentially damaging winds are expected today. The
strongest winds will be along and just east of the central mountain
chain, and across the northeast plains, where gusts up to 70 mph are
expected. Widespread critical fire weather conditions will also
develop. An approaching upper level low pressure system will cause
windy conditions and fire weather concerns to redevelop on Thursday,
when wind speeds will probably peak around 50 mph. The upper low
will also draw moisture for thunderstorms into the state, a few of
which could turn severe along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain on Thursday afternoon. Showers, thunderstorms and
mountain snow showers will become more widespread Thursday night
through Saturday as the upper low passes eastward along the Colorado
and New Mexico border. A few to several inches of snow will be
possible in the northern mountains above 8,000 feet. A cold front
will cross with the system causing high temperatures to fall below
normal at the end of the week, but readings will rebound as a ridge
of high pressure crosses early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough will pass north of NM today steering the jet
stream over our state. A sharp lee trough south of a 994 mb surface
low in eastern CO will also get the winds going, especially across
the east where some areas can expect southwest wind gusts up to 70
mph. Except on mountain peaks like the Magdalena peak observatory,
winds west of the central mountain chain probably won`t be quite as
strong (peaking up to 60 mph). The downslope flow will result in
temperatures up to 13 degrees above normal across the eastern plains
this afternoon, but readings will fall as much as 10 degrees below
normal in the west with the arrival of a sharp Pacific cold front.

The gusty Pacific cold front will drive through the remainder of the
forecast area this evening, resulting in high temperatures as much
as 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday. Western high temperatures
will actually rebound a few to 10 degrees from todays highs on
Wednesday.

The upper level low pressure system approaching the Four Corners on
Thursday will draw a moist, south and southeasterly, low-level return
flow northward along and east of the central mountain chain.
Temperatures will still be near and below normal across the east
on Thursday, and the GFS depicts a more unidirectional shear
profile, so the risk of severe weather does not look as high in
the latest run. Can`t rule out a few pulse severe storms,
especially Thursday afternoon and evening. South winds will
generally gust in the 40 to 50 mph range on Thursday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will probably become most widespread on
Friday, when a Pacific cold front crosses the state.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...WIDESPREAD EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

Exceptionally poor RH recoveries early this morning with current
relative humidities of 10 to 15 percent, and even single digits over
some west and central areas. This will factor into the widespread
extremely critical fire weather conditions today. Minimum humidities
this afternoon will be around 5 percent in many areas. Winds will
increase dramatically this morning and roar over the state this
afternoon before reluctantly diminishing this evening. Sustained
wind speeds will reach 35 to 45 mph with gusts of 55 to 70 mph.
Haines will be moderate to high and temperatures above normal over
southern and eastern areas. Single digit humidities will last 10 to
15 or more hours in the south and east. The northwest will not see
the extreme conditions the rest of the area will get. Cold air
advection will stabilize the atmosphere with low or very low Haines
and below normal high temperatures, reducing the critical fire
threat for the Northwest Plateau and North Central Mountains.
Excellent vent rates today.

An upper level disturbance moving east out of the Great Basin, a
Pacific cold front and deep surface low pressure in eastern CO are
the culprits for our weather today. All will move east late today
into tonight. It will be dry and chilly tonight with diminishing
winds.

A transient ridge of high pressure will cross NM Wednesday with lots
of sunshine, not much wind (for a change) and highs near to below
normal. Vent rates will be mostly good to excellent.

Back comes the wind Thursday as the next storm comes ashore from the
Pacific Ocean. A 547dm closeD low over CA will reach Las Vegas, NV
Thursday. Southwest winds will increase aloft over NM Thursday with
strong surface winds developing west of the central mountains.
Critical fire weather conditions are likely west of the central
mountains. Meanwhile, low level moisture will begin surging north
into eastern NM Thursday, setting the stage for some thunderstorms
along the east slopes of the central mountains Thursday afternoon.
They will likely expand in coverage and intensity Thursday night
into Friday from the central mountains to the TX border. Even areas
west of the central mountains will see some shower and thunderstorm
activity Thursday night into Friday night. The storm will reach the
four corners region by late Friday, cross NM Friday night then exit
east Saturday. Temperatures will warm some Thursday, then turn much
cooler Friday. Highs Saturday will be mostly below normal. Critical
fire weather conditions will be possible in the southern portion of
the Middle Rio Grande Valley Friday afternoon, with no area of
critical on Saturday.

A ridge of high pressure will build over NM Sunday, but a weak short
wave trough will top the ridge, perhaps triggering a few showers and
storms Sunday and Monday, a rain and snow showers Sunday night, over
the North Central Mountains.  Return flow moisture could bring more
widespread showers and thunderstorms to central and eastern areas
Tuesday into Tuesday night. In addition to possible wetting
precipitation, winds will NOT be a major factor in our weather
Sunday through Tuesday.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ506>508-510>516-518-519-521>524-526>540.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ517-520-525.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ501-503-504-509.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ502-505.

&&

$$



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