Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 162109
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
309 PM MDT Wed May 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Extremely dry, warm and breezy to windy conditions will persist
through Friday with daytime temperatures generally 5 to 15 degrees
above normal. A backdoor cold front will bring moisture to northeast
New Mexico late Saturday and may trigger a few storms between the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Texas border. Look for increasing
rain chances across eastern New Mexico from Sunday through early next
week as Gulf moisture moves into the area and acts as fuel for daily
rounds of storms. Warm, dry and breezy conditions will likely
persist across western New Mexico from Sunday through early week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warming/drying associated with an amplifying upper level ridge
overhead is the story today, although Gulf moisture is hanging-on
across the far Eastern Plains where surface dewpoint temperatures are
currently in the 50s. Low convective probabilities late this
afternoon/evening will be relegated to along the NM-TX/OK borders
near Clayton and Tucumcari. However, showers have already developed
over northeast Union County and are quickly moving east out of New
Mexico. The ridge axis will shift east tonight as a Pacific low over
CA/NV makes eastward progress. Thursday will feature increasing
southwesterlies, a deepening lee side trough and critical fire
weather conditions (see Fire Weather Discussion below for details).
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late Thursday near the
NM-TX/OK border where a dryline will sharpen-up. The Pacific
trough/low will push across the region Friday and bring a little bit
of cold air advection to portions of western New Mexico, bringing
high temperatures down closer to normal for a change. A backdoor cold
front will follow behind the exiting Pacific trough on Saturday and
bring moisture to northeast New Mexico for a potential round of
storms late day/evening.

A troughing pattern will persist from late weekend and into next
week across the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies, which should
help bring Gulf moisture northwest to at least the Central Mountain
Chain. Although warm, dry and breezy conditions will likely persist
across western New Mexico, daily rounds of storms will be possible
across eastern New Mexico. Differences between the 12Z operational
runs of the ECMWF and GFS with regard to an approaching Pacific low
early next week is leading to lower forecast confidence with the
details, but overall the advertised upper air pattern from both
models supports northwest transport of Gulf moisture well into our
area.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY,
THEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST ON FRIDAY...

An upper level low pressure system will cross the Great Basin
tonight and Thursday, then the central Rockies Thursday night
through Friday night before exiting northeastward onto the Great
Plains this weekend. This will steer a moderately strong jet stream
across the fire weather forecast area Thursday and Friday. The main
concern for critical conditions will be southern and eastern areas
on Thursday, and the eastern plains and Northeast Highlands on
Friday, where/when winds will be strongest.  Widespread Haines of 6
are expected both days. High temperatures will vary around 5 to 13
degrees above normal, except for near normal readings along the AZ
border on Friday. There could be a few dryline thunderstorms right
along the eastern NM border on Thursday.  Humidity recoveries will
be poor across central and western areas tonight and Thursday night.

Gusty winds will return to the east on Saturday, but speeds look to
remain below critical thresholds in the latest model runs as the
speed maximum aloft shifts just south and east of the forecast area.
A lee trough will remain in place, so the wind speed forecast could
strengthen across eastern NM for Saturday if models exit the speed
max aloft south and east of the area more slowly.

A back door cold front is forecast to push into northeast parts of
the forecast area Saturday, then southwestward into the central
valley with a gusty east canyon wind Saturday night into Sunday
morning.  The front will usher better moisture into the state with a
chance for thunderstorms across the northeast on Saturday, Then
across the northern mountains and eastern plains Sunday afternoon
and night. The ECMWF model indicates the back door cold front will
usher improved moisture westward to the continental divide Saturday
night, and keeps the moisture rich enough for showers and
thunderstorms across western and central areas on Sunday. However,
the GFS mixes this moisture out by Sunday afternoon. If
thunderstorms do get going central and west on Sunday, they will
probably produce more in the way of wind than rain.

The first half of the coming work week will feature another upper
level low pressure system digging into the Great Basin, then
beginning to lift north northeastward over the northern Rockies.
This will draw a moist low level return flow into NM, and again the
ECMWF is more aggressive at pulling this moisture past the central
mountain chain and into western and central parts of the forecast
area. The GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture and thunderstorm
chances along and east of the central mountain chain each day.
Depending on the track and timing with which the upper low exits the
Great Basin, wind and fire weather concerns may return to portions
of the forecast area again Tuesday and Wednesday.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Quiet weather is expected today with a ridge of high pressure
overhead. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop along New
Mexico`s eastern border, before moving east or southeastward into
Texas. A moist southeasterly return flow will allow low clouds with
MVFR and possibly some IFR conditions to move into the eastern-most
row of counties late tonight into Thursday morning. Some of these
could make it as far west as a Roy-to-Roswell line.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  84  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  80  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  80  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  82  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  80  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  84  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  40  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  51  88  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  75  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  54  80  54  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  51  79  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  77  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  31  68  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  24  73  26  71 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  36  81  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  47  86  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  83  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  86  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  89  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  90  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  92  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  90  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  92  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  89  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  93  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  48  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  86  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  48  84  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  52  85  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  87  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  82  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  84  47  83 /  10   5   5   5
Raton...........................  45  87  44  85 /   5   5   5   5
Springer........................  46  88  45  86 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  89  55  88 /  10  10  10   5
Roy.............................  50  86  52  85 /  10   5   5   5
Conchas.........................  54  93  55  91 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  92  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  96  60  94 /  10   5  10   5
Clovis..........................  57  93  58  92 /   5  10  10  10
Portales........................  58  94  60  93 /   5  10  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  57  95  57  93 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  60 101  58  99 /   0  10   0   5
Picacho.........................  57  94  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
Elk.............................  54  90  56  88 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-106>109.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$

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