Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202130
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture has increased enough behind last night`s back door cold
front for showers and thunderstorms tonight, mainly along and east of
the central mountain chain. Low level moisture will increase from
the south and southeast tonight through Tuesday with fairly
widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and
Monday night, especially along and east of the continental divide.
Storms will then return mainly along and east of the central
mountain chain Tuesday through Wednesday; however, coverage will
trend downward each day as drier air moves over the state from the
southwest. A few storms could turn severe across central and eastern
areas Monday afternoon, then again across the east on Tuesday. With
the drier air will come warmer temperatures with highs reaching above
normal areawide during the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough digging over the west coast will form a closed
upper level low pressure system that will stall over CA and NV
tonight through Tuesday night, before weakening and lifting
northeastward across the northern Rockies during mid week. Low level
convergence beneath this storm system will draw a moist return flow
of low level moisture north and northwestward over NM tonight through
Monday night. Most showers and thunderstorms that develop tonight
will favor the central mountain chain and adjacent east slopes, but
storm coverage should increase after midnight along the east slopes
of the western mountains, and also across south central and
southeast areas, due to the increasing low level moisture and
increasingly diffluent flow aloft.

The upper low will shift westward over NV starting Tuesday, steering
drier air over NM from the southwest in the process. There will be a
notable downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
especially in the west. The drying trend will continue into
Wednesday, when storms will be unlikely west of the central mountain
chain.

The drier air should spread across northern areas as well on
Thursday, but models depict a pool of moisture lingering along and
east of the south central mountains, where there will be another
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Another moist back door cold front is forecast to push through the
eastern plains Friday night and Saturday increasing thunderstorm
chances along and east of the central mountain chain next weekend.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level moisture has pushed west through the Rio Grande Valley
today and will surge west again tonight along the Cont Divide. A
couple showers and storms over the area today will range from dry
along the Cont Divide to wet east of the central mt chain. Humidity
recoveries will range from fair along the AZ border to very good in
the Rio Grande Valley to excellent across the plains. Widespread low
clouds are expected with additional showers and storms tonight over
eastern NM.

Monday will feature the greatest coverage of showers and storms over
the region. Much greater coverage of storms is expected along the
Divide Monday with an LAL 6 event possible along the western edge of
the precip field. Storms will be more a mix and wet and dry within
the Rio Grande Valley then wet over eastern NM where locally heavy
rainfall is possible. Very good to excellent recoveries are on tap
Monday night for much of the area.

An upper level trough will begin approaching from the west Tuesday
and scour moisture out over western NM with drier southwest flow.
There will be marginal critical fire weather conditions along and
west of the Cont Divide with a critical area likely toward the AZ
border. This will be important to watch as lightning starts are
possible,, especially as even drier air moves in Wednesday. More
showers and storms are likely Tuesday and Tuesday night along and
east of the central mt chain. Locally heavy rainfall is possible for
eastern NM once again.

Wednesday will feature drier air advancing eastward through the Rio
Grande Valley into the high plains of eastern NM. A few storms are
still likely over the plains but the focus for wetting rainfall will
be farther eastward. Temperatures will also begin to trend above
normal for the entire area with upper level ridging building over
the state.

The remainder of the week will remain very warm to hot with low
level moisture sloshing over eastern NM and poor to fair recoveries
for central and western NM. Another several days of min humidities
in the single digits is likely west of the central mt chain however
winds will be relatively light beneath the ridge through the end of
week.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low cigs will continue thinning over eastern NM early this afternoon.
Higher moisture has shifted west to the Cont Dvd late this morning on
east-southeast winds. Expect -SHRA/TSRA to develop over the central
and western higher terrain aft 21Z then move northeast at 15 to 20
kt. Any storm along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will be capable
of producing strong and erratic outflow winds thru 02Z. -SHRA/TSRA
may persist along the central mt chain and adjacent high plains thru
06Z while low cigs redevelop across eastern NM. Widespread MVFR cloud
decks likely aft 06Z with more -SHRA/TSRA expanding northward from
southeastern NM overnight, particularly around KROW.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  83  49  82 /   0  40  30  10
Dulce...........................  41  72  43  75 /  10  60  70  30
Cuba............................  47  73  47  74 /   5  50  50  20
Gallup..........................  40  80  41  81 /   0  20   5   5
El Morro........................  40  75  39  76 /   0  40  10   5
Grants..........................  40  76  39  80 /   5  40  20   5
Quemado.........................  45  76  43  75 /   0  30   5   5
Glenwood........................  50  85  50  85 /   0  10   0   5
Chama...........................  35  67  36  69 /  10  50  70  40
Los Alamos......................  52  72  54  73 /  30  40  60  30
Pecos...........................  49  69  52  71 /  30  60  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  44  69  45  70 /  10  40  50  30
Red River.......................  39  59  41  60 /  20  50  50  40
Angel Fire......................  27  64  29  65 /  20  70  60  70
Taos............................  42  73  41  75 /  10  40  50  40
Mora............................  40  66  44  68 /  30  60  60  50
Espanola........................  52  78  51  79 /  10  30  50  30
Santa Fe........................  52  72  54  73 /  20  60  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  50  75  50  77 /  10  60  60  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  78  54  82 /  10  50  40  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  56  80  57  83 /  10  40  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  82  53  85 /  10  30  40  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  81  55  84 /  10  40  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  50  82  50  86 /  10  30  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  54  80  55  84 /  10  40  40  20
Socorro.........................  57  82  56  87 /  20  30  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  73  51  76 /  20  60  50  40
Tijeras.........................  48  76  51  78 /  20  50  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  41  77  42  80 /  20  50  40  30
Clines Corners..................  46  71  49  74 /  30  60  60  40
Gran Quivira....................  51  76  53  78 /  10  60  60  20
Carrizozo.......................  54  78  55  80 /  10  50  70  20
Ruidoso.........................  46  69  48  73 /  40  70  80  30
Capulin.........................  45  71  49  72 /  20  30  40  30
Raton...........................  44  74  46  76 /  20  40  30  30
Springer........................  44  74  47  76 /  20  30  40  30
Las Vegas.......................  44  68  46  70 /  40  50  60  40
Clayton.........................  49  77  53  77 /  20  20  30  30
Roy.............................  49  71  51  72 /  20  30  60  30
Conchas.........................  54  78  57  79 /  20  40  60  30
Santa Rosa......................  53  75  55  78 /  20  40  60  30
Tucumcari.......................  55  79  58  82 /  20  30  60  40
Clovis..........................  54  76  56  78 /  20  30  60  30
Portales........................  55  77  58  80 /  20  40  60  40
Fort Sumner.....................  57  77  59  81 /  20  30  60  30
Roswell.........................  59  81  62  85 /  40  30  60  30
Picacho.........................  56  74  56  78 /  40  40  80  40
Elk.............................  50  71  52  77 /  50  40  80  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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