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FXUS65 KABQ 050354 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
954 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 954 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Additional development of showers and thunderstorms have been few
and far between this evening. Therefore, have lowered PoPs for the
rest of the night. CAMs continue to suggest the ongoing activity
to the east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains will continue to
shift eastward across NE NM then showers may percolate through
sunrise but confidence is low that additional measurable
precipitation will occur after midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will continue through
the evening over northern NM. Strong to perhaps severe storms are
still possible for parts of eastern NM through the late evening.
Widespread low clouds, patchy fog, and drizzle will then develop
over eastern NM overnight. Another period of strong canyon winds
may impact the east side of the Albuquerque metro area with gusts
up to 45 mph. The weather pattern will then shift to widespread
strong winds with dangerous fire weather conditions Sunday through
Wednesday. A couple stray storms across eastern NM Sunday will be
followed by strong southwest winds and very low humidity for the
entire area. A brief chance for high terrain snow may slide over
the northern high terrain Sunday night before powerful west winds
take hold of the area. Wind gusts greater than 65 mph are possible
for the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Monday and
Tuesday. The rest of the area may see wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Backdoor cold front has made its way southward through all of
eastern NM while at the same time banking up against the east slopes
of the Continental Divide in western NM. Gusty east canyon winds
into the ABQ metro have subsided after several gusts to 49 mph at
the Sunport this morning. Another round of east canyon winds is
expected to develop again this evening around the time of sunset,
peaking through the early morning hours Sunday (~ 35 kt at KABQ)
before weakening to a light southeast breeze by sunrise. Widespread
low clouds in the eastern half of NM will fill back in after sunset,
possibly making it into the Santa Fe metro for Sunday morning.
Increasing southwest winds and at least patchy blowing dust remain
on track for all areas Sunday as an unseasonably deep upper low
moves east through northern CA and NV. Strongest winds on Sunday are
forecast for far western NM near the AZ line and far northeast
highlands including Des Moines, Folsom, Capulin and Sierra Grande. A
wind advisory may be necessary for a couple of zones along the AZ
line as well as for the far northeast highlands Sunday afternoon as
a result. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be several to
5 degrees warmer than today west and 6 to 10 degrees warmer east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Strengthening zonal flow in the wake of a strong Pacific cold front
will set the stage for several days of strong winds along the east
slopes of the central mt chain beginning Monday morning. Jet stream
winds will increase to near 120kt over northern NM Monday before
decreasing slowly thru late Tuesday. Model cross sections over the
Sangre de Cristo Mts are hinting at an ideal setup for downward
momentum flux along the east slopes peaking during the morning hours
Monday and Tuesday. The 25th to 75th percentile envelope of NBM
peak wind gust probabilities show gusts of 65 to 75 kt, which is
strong enough to produce damage, especially in areas with weakened
and dead trees from the HPCC wildfire. A High Wind Watch will be
required if model trends and ensemble probabilities continue to
advertise this event. Max temps Monday will trend 10-15F cooler
behind the Pacific front as well which will make it feel pretty
chilly across the northern mts with these winds. Temps rebound
Tuesday but still remain slightly below normal across the north
and west. This airmass will also be exceptionally dry so very high
fire danger is expected. The next Pacific cold front will move
thru on Wednesday with cooler temps and strong northwest winds.
The very dry airmass with lighter winds Wednesday night may lead
to a few areas with freezing temps that have passed their average
last spring freeze date, notably Farmington and Raton.

The large-scale pattern is still advertised by ensemble guidance to
become more favorable for increasing precip chances around Thursday.
The next moist backdoor cold front may surge southwest into eastern
NM late week while upper level flow gradually weakens and evolves
more into a weak upper level ridge. Favored areas for much needed
rainfall will be along and east of the central mt chain, especially
northeast NM, for next weekend into early the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Light rain and virga showers with isolated thunderstorms have
expanded across much of western and central NM. Gusty winds are
expected with this activity into the evening. An outflow boundary
is currently pushing eastward across the Albuquerque metro and
will bring winds around to the west- northwest briefly, disrupting
the persistent southeasterly winds today. Later this evening, a
strong east canyon wind is expected to develop at KABQ, and an
Airport Weather Warning will be warranted with gusts near 35kt.
Additionally, low level moisture is advecting into eastern NM this
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening stretching from the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo Mtns, to include KLVS, southward toward KROW.
Some storms may have small hail and gusty winds. After the storms
dissipate, MVFR to IFR cigs will develop across all of eastern NM
as well as KSAF. These low clouds will persist through mid morning
on Sunday when strong south to southwest winds kick in eroding the
low cloud layer. These strong winds will persist throughout the
afternoon with gusts near 40kt likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO STRONG WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 10 PM MDT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
AND FROM 3 PM UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS FARTHER WEST, DUE TO STRONG WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

After a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of
the forecast area this evening and overnight, a persistent fire
growing weather pattern is forecast to develop Sunday and continue
through Wednesday. This pattern will act to keep the flow aloft dry
and strong over NM with daily rounds of widespread critical fire
weather conditions on track for areas below snowpack. Upgraded the
Fire Weather Watch for the northeast highlands Sunday given the
latest wind forecasts highlighting this area for strong winds on
Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch continues for the entire forecast area
Monday. Start times remain staggered with winds in western NM not
forecast to increase until mid afternoon Monday. A backdoor cold
front is forecast to bring the widespread critical conditions to an
end Thursday and Friday with shower chances developing as a
result central and east next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Farmington......................  46  75  37  64 /   0  10  20   0
Dulce...........................  35  73  31  57 /   5  10  50   0
Cuba............................  39  73  33  61 /   5   0  10   0
Gallup..........................  34  74  30  64 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  37  71  34  60 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  35  76  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  73  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  77  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  72  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  37  77  34  73 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  46  81  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  34  67  28  51 /   5  10  50   5
Los Alamos......................  47  72  40  62 /  10   5  10   0
Pecos...........................  44  73  41  61 /  30  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  67  38  54 /  10   0  20   0
Red River.......................  32  65  29  50 /  20   5  20   0
Angel Fire......................  28  66  27  50 /  20   5   5   0
Taos............................  36  73  34  59 /  10   0  10   0
Mora............................  39  72  38  60 /  30  10   0   0
Espanola........................  45  80  43  68 /  10   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  46  75  42  63 /  20   5   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  45  78  42  67 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  80  47  71 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  48  82  48  73 /  10   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  84  45  74 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  83  46  72 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  44  84  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  48  83  46  73 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  44  83  45  75 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  48  84  46  74 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  44  83  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  78  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  83  47  72 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  47  86  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  72  43  63 /  20   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  75  41  67 /  10   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  42  77  41  67 /  10   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  77  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  73  39  63 /  20   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  39  75  42  69 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  40  75  44  70 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  48  80  53  76 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  73  49  68 /  10   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  68  43  64 /  10  10   0   0
Raton...........................  42  75  42  67 /  10   5   0   0
Springer........................  43  75  45  67 /  20   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  74  43  64 /  30  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  46  74  53  74 /  10  10   5   0
Roy.............................  47  73  50  71 /  20  20   5   0
Conchas.........................  51  81  54  77 /  20  20   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  78  48  73 /  20  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  49  80  55  78 /  30  10   5   0
Clovis..........................  52  79  56  80 /  20  10  10   0
Portales........................  52  82  56  83 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  51  82  53  79 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  88  56  88 /  20   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  50  85  51  79 /  20   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ101-105-
106-109-120>124.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ104-106-120>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34