Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230533 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A blanket of high clouds remains mainly over northern and eastern NM.
The weak remnant backdoor bdry has reached KSAF and is expected to
bring a weak east gap wind to KABQ for a few hours until about
sunrise at 13Z. Otherwise, winds will be weak overnight with VFR
cigs. Winds turn west across western and central NM, with southerly
flow across the east Monday afternoon. Some sfc convergence is
expected across the far NE where a few afternoon tstorms are possible
from KRTN to KCAO. Gusty and erratic downburst winds are likely with
any tstorm activity in that area. The rest of NM will see partly
cldy VFR skies tomorrow.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend is underway, with daytime temperatures forecast to
rise back above normal by Monday. Warm and dry conditions will
persist into Tuesday across western New Mexico, but a backdoor cold
front will bring much cooler temperatures to eastern portions of the
state. The backdoor front will create strong and gusty east canyon
winds into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night. Another backdoor
front will bring in added moisture on Thursday for an increase in
chances for showers or storms going into the end of the work week.
Stronger springtime winds may return by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is underway and observed temperatures at 2PM were
5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Moisture associated
with a shortwave trough moving east across northern Mexico has spread
into southern and central New Mexico and when combined with daytime
heating may produce some high-based virga showers later this
afternoon and evening. The warming trend will continue Monday, with
daytime temperatures reaching above normal areawide. Warming will
persist into Tuesday across central and western New Mexico, while
much of the east is cooled-off by a backdoor cold front. Roswell is
forecast to rise to near 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon prior to the
frontal passage. Blowing dust is certainly a possibility with this
front, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this
time. A few showers or storms are possible with this front late
Monday through Tuesday, mainly across the far northeast and over the
Sangres.

PWATs are forecast to increase Thu/Fri, thanks in part to another
backdoor front and the winds in the lower boundary layer responding
to an approaching trough bringing in some limited Gulf moisture. The
12Z operational run of the GFS looks similar to the past couple of
runs showing showers and storms breaking-out Thu/Fri, then shifting
to the east Saturday with a dryline. Forecast confidence for the
Thu/Fri/Sat period is low at this time, with differences still
showing between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. However, the run-to-run
consistency from the GFS is encouraging. If the GFS works-out, a
return of springtime winds is in the cards for the weekend.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No widespread critical fire weather concerns through next weekend.

Mid and high level clouds are moving northeast across NM this
afternoon and will continue to do so tonight. Could get some virga
out of the mid clouds this evening over the higher western and
central mountains. Little or no rain but strong, gusty winds not out
of the question. otherwise light winds and seasonable temperatures
tonight.

Clouds thin out Monday except in the northeast where a little quasi
wind shift, sharp dewpoint contrast sets up in the afternoon. Could
see a few high based showers or thunderstorms along it by later in
the afternoon and evening. Highs will continue to climb Monday and
reach above normal everywhere.

A short wave trough with a nearly/sometimes closed low aloft will
move out of the Northern Rockies Monday night onto the Central Plains
Tuesday. A back door cold front will enter northeast NM late Monday
night and early Tuesday and move slowly south and west during the
day Tuesday, accelerating during the evening and overnight. The
front will blast into the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday night and
probably even spill over the Continental Divide by Wednesday
morning. Much cooler temperatures will follow the front, impacting
the northeast and north central areas Tuesday and elsewhere
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains and northeast Tuesday, then spread down the
eastern plains Tuesday night, with rain changing to wet snow in the
Sangre de Cristos.

A ridge of high pressure will try to move in from the west
Wednesday, providing dry weather, but cool temperatures in the east.
Another short wave trough coming into the northern U.S. Plains
Wednesday night will drop sharply southeast Thursday and drag a
surface cold front into early NM Wednesday night into Thursday, and
westward Thursday night. A storm off the west coast Thursday will
move inland Friday. The combination of low level moisture behind the
back door front and mid and high moisture drawn north from the
western storm will bring a decent shot of widespread precipitation
to the area starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. This
would be most welcome!

No widespread poor ventilation rates forecast through the next 7
days.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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