Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131743 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1143 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Upper-level ridge building toward NM today and will cross the state
tonight into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a backdoor sfc front across the
eastern plains is heading toward the east slopes of the central mt
chain. This front will spill into the RGV around sunset with
moderate east and southeast winds developing at KABQ and KSAF
respectively. As low level moisture remains trapped under the
building ridge, Lcl MVFR cigs and mt obsurations possible again


.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018...
A warming trend is in play most areas through mid week, with
temperatures reaching above normal by Wednesday. Moist southwest
flow ahead of an approaching Pacific system will bring increasing
chances for showers late Wednesday into Thursday to parts of western
and northern New Mexico. Winds will increase significantly Thursday,
especially across eastern New Mexico, as the Pacific system moves
into the southern Rockies. Windy conditions will continue into Friday
across eastern portions of the area on the backside of the departing
Pacific system. Another fast-moving Pacific system will race across
the Desert Southwest and New Mexico late in the weekend, bringing
more unsettled weather with stronger winds. The active weather
pattern looks to continue into next week, with more strong winds and
chances for precipitation in the cards.


Some drying noted with a PWAT downtrend over the past couple KABQ
upper air soundings, but the latest water vapor satellite imagery
shows Pacific moisture making eastward progress around the base of
an anomalously cold upper level low offshore of OR/CA and set to
make a return later tonight into Wednesday. In the meantime, a ridge
will transition east today/tonight from over the Great Basin to over
the Rockies. Drying of the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere
with still plenty of low layer moisture in place and an increasingly
stable atmosphere is presenting a potential fog scenario this
morning across the area. Hard to say exactly where fog will develop,
but the Rio Grande Valley is a good bet with humidity currently
running 80-100%, light winds and clear or mostly clear skies.
Otherwise, warming is forecast today everywhere except across the far
eastern plains where a weak backdoor frontal push will keep
temperatures below normal. Look for more warming Wednesday to bring
temperatures above normal most areas. However, moisture advection
tonight into Wednesday in advance of a shortwave trough lifting E-NE
across the Great Basin and into the Rockies will result in increasing
clouds and chances for showers across the western and northern
higher terrain. A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to push east
into the southern Rockies Thursday and result in continued chances
for showers, but with strong downslope winds across eastern New
Mexico thanks to lee cyclogenesis with a deepening lee side surface
low to between 991-994mb across eastern Colorado. Wind advisories
will likely be required for Thursday afternoon/evening.

Another fast-moving Pacific trough is forecast to push across the
southern Rockies late in the weekend as is looking increasingly dry
and windy for our area given model run-to-run trends. Differences
between the 00Z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF are leading to
a lower confidence forecast for next week, but the active pattern
looks to persist. The GFS is once again the wetter solution with a
potent upper level trough/low further south, impacting southern
California and the Desert Southwest early to mid week.



A mainly dry backdoor cold front will move into eastern New Mexico
today with the front pushing west of the central mountain chain
overnight. Meanwhile, dry northwest flow aloft will continue as an
upper level ridge slides east into western New Mexico today and
tonight. This ridge moves over the RGV around noon Wednesday before
quickly skirting east of the state Wednesday night. Models agree
that a relatively moist southwest flow aloft moves over western New
Mexico late Wedesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A few showers
are expected over the northwest third of the state as a result.
Elsewhere, west to southwest winds will be the main weather story
Wednesday and especially Thursday. Several hours of critical fire
weather conditons are possible across eastern New Mexico Thursday
afternoon as the strong winds combine with low relative humidity
levels, moderate instability and above average temperatures.
Marginal conditons remain on track for Friday as winds are not
forecast to be as strong.

Models trending drier and windier with regard to Saturday night and
Sunday`s system . Sunday is still looking like the windiest of the
two as a trough slides east through the Central Rockies. A good deal
of uncertainty continues for early next week as the GFS wants to
bring a deep closed low into CA/AZ Tuesday and Wednesday but the
ECMWF has a deep low but keeps it farther north and offshore.





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