000
FXUS65 KABQ 242350 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
550 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Windy and widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected
Thursday as a disturbance moves through the Four Corners region and
central and southern Rockies. Winds remain breezy to locally windy
Friday behind Thursday`s system and ahead of the next system. This
22nd system moves through the state Saturday and take a more
southerly track compared to Thursday`s resulting in rain showers,
mountain peak snow and cooler temperatures along and west of the
central mountain chain. It will be windy and drier across eastern
and southern areas during the day Saturday. Temperatures across
western and central areas rebound on Sunday with lighter winds
behind that system. Some afternoon showers possible in far northeast
areas behind a backdoor front. After a quiet Monday, the dryline
retreats west into southeast New Mexico Tuesday morning
possibly resulting in a late afternoon to evening storm there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

An approaching upper low, currently offshore of Socal per the
latest water vapor imagery, will accelerate east overnight then lift
northeast from central AZ through the central Rockies and eject out
over east central CO Thursday night. Ahead of the upper low tonight,
a tap of Pacific moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere
will bring considerable high cloudiness and act to limit radiational
cooling and help to keep the lower boundary layer mixed longer,
making for above normal low temperatures. The advertised track of
the upper low will steer strong southwest winds aloft over the area
Thursday and bring a rapidly deepening lee side trough at the
surface. The surface low is forecast to drop to near an impressive
988mb across east central CO late Thursday, which is a favorable
position to enhance winds across northeast NM. In addition, mixing
heights are forecast to reach up to around 500mb tomorrow, where
speeds will vary from 45kts to 70kt across the area. The stronger
70kt 500mb speeds are modeled to be located across east central and
south central NM mid day Thursday. Given this setup, we have
upgraded the High Wind Watch to a warning and added the South
Central Highlands. We also added our eastern-most zones as a Wind
Advisory for Thursday. The strong winds is one component of
Thursdays impact weather, but another potential major impact is
blowing dust which has been referenced in the warning product. We`ll
likely be issuing Dust Warnings/Advisories Thursday afternoon, with
the Roswell vicinity being the most obvious candidate given the
known dust issue there and where the worst drought conditions in our
area reside. The upper low will bring sufficient moisture to the
northwest quarter for a round of showers and possibly some thunder
Thursday afternoon/evening. Very little measurable precipitation is
expected at the lower elevations, but the peaks could pick up a
fresh couple inches of snow by Thursday night. Strong winds will
continue on the backside of the ejecting upper low Thursday night
across eastern NM, which will likely hold up low temperatures and
keep them above normal. The NAM is advertising a mountain wave
signal for the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos Thursday night,
with possible extension down to I-25, which will need to be
considered by subsequent shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The upper trough/ low from Thursday ejects into the central Great
Plains Friday with brisk zonal flow of 25 to 40 kts at 700 mb in
it`s wake and ahead of the next upper level trough over the Pacific
NW and Great Basin. The strongest winds with gusts of 45 to 50 mph
will be across the central highlands and east slopes of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains during the morning hours spreading across the
east central plains in the afternoon. Another day of critical fire
weather conditions is expected across the middle and lower RGV and
eastern NM (see fire weather discussion). Rain and high elevation
snow showers will enter northwest NM Friday night as the developing
upper low moves southeast towards the Four Corners by daybreak.
Winds will remain gusty across the southern high terrain due to
increasing 700 mb flow of 35 to 50 kts. The upper low moves across
the NM/CO border during the day Saturday bringing rain and mountain
peak snow showers to most areas and resulting cooler temperatures
along and west of the central mountain chain. Eastern NM will be
dryslotted thanks to the very gusty southwest flow ahead of the
upper low. Guidance indicates likely Wind Advisories across the east
central and southeast plains and south central mountains Saturday
afternoon due to strong 700 mb winds of 40 to 50 kts. Showers across
western and central NM quickly taper off early Saturday night as the
upper low exits northeast into the central Great Plains with with
lighter at times brisk dry westerly flow in it`s wake for Sunday. A
weak shortwave combined with a surface backdoor front on the
backside of the upper low looks to move across the far northern
mountains and northeast NM Sunday afternoon and provide few isolated
showers.

Weak upper level ridging moves in Sunday night into Monday pushing
the storm track back north over the northern Rockies. Monday will be
a splendid spring day with sunny skies, light west winds and high
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal. Southeast return flow sets
up over the southeast plains and brings in Gulf moisture Monday
night into Tuesday morning as the upper level ridge moves east. A
shortwave moving to the northeast along the subtropical jet could
spark a storm or two across the southeast plains Tuesday evening.
The dryline and higher Gulf moisture ahead of it across Texas then
looks to back into the eastern plains Wednesday morning setting the
stage for some strong to severe storms as the aforementioned
shortwave moves through the state come next Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A dry slot approaching from the west will force the high cloud
deck currently over the region eastward into TX. Winds aloft will
strengthen with this dry slot and lead to greater coverage of
mountain waves and turbulence overnight. A weak surface boundary
draped over far eastern NM late today will allow IFR low cigs to
redevelop along the TX/NM border overnight. Confidence on any low
cigs at KTCC is low so there is no mention in the 00Z TAF, but
satellite and obs will be monitored for updates. The main impact
to aviation will occur Thursday with widespread strong winds and
BLDU. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 kt will be common with the strongest
gusts focused over eastern NM. BLDU may lead to IFR cigs/vsbys
around KROW and KCVS aft 19Z. An Airport Weather Warning for
strong winds is very likely at KABQ Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY...

A Pacific low will move east from AZ across the southern Rockies
Thursday and into the plains Thursday night, steering strong winds
and a dry slot over NM and bringing a round of strong winds and
critical fire weather conditions. Stronger winds will persist with
low humidity across eastern NM Friday in the wake of the departing
low, so have issued a Fire Weather Watch for eastern portions of the
area. Also included the middle Rio Grande Valley, mainly for the
southern half with special consideration given to the Bosque in
Socorro County. Another upper level trough will move through
Saturday, but this one has a further south track which will bring
higher humidity to much of the area compared to tomorrow`s event and
displace the strongest winds further south. The east central plains
is the only area that may be impacted by critical fire weather
conditions on Friday. The trough will bring decent chances for
wetting precipitation to northern and western portions of the area
Saturday, especially in the mountains. Critical fire weather
conditions are currently not forecast from Sun through Tue of next
week with a transient low amplitude ridge bringing a warming trend
and less wind. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail Tue/Wed
of next week, although a Gulf moisture intrusion across the eastern
plains will bring higher humidity there with chances for wetting
storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  68  43  67 /   0  20  10  10
Dulce...........................  36  66  33  64 /   0  20  20  20
Cuba............................  40  64  36  63 /   0  30  20  10
Gallup..........................  34  63  33  65 /   0  20   5   0
El Morro........................  36  60  33  62 /   0  20   0   0
Grants..........................  35  65  34  66 /   0  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  63  32  65 /   0  10   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  68  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  39  63  34  63 /   0   5   0   0
Reserve.........................  35  67  31  69 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  71  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  60  31  57 /   0  30  20  20
Los Alamos......................  46  66  40  63 /   0  20  10  10
Pecos...........................  42  67  38  64 /   0  10   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  41  62  41  58 /   0  10  10   5
Red River.......................  34  56  31  55 /   0  20  10  20
Angel Fire......................  31  59  28  55 /   0  10  10   5
Taos............................  37  68  33  64 /   0  10  10   0
Mora............................  39  66  37  63 /   0   5   5   0
Espanola........................  45  73  41  71 /   0  10  10   5
Santa Fe........................  46  68  39  66 /   0  10  10   5
Santa Fe Airport................  44  71  39  69 /   0  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  72  46  71 /   5  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  73  45  73 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  75  43  75 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  73  44  73 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  47  77  43  76 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  74  43  74 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  76  43  75 /   5   5   0   0
Corrales........................  49  74  45  75 /   5   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  76  44  75 /   5   5   0   0
Placitas........................  50  71  44  69 /   0  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  73  44  73 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  79  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  65  40  63 /   5  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  69  40  67 /   5  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  70  39  68 /   0   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  40  72  36  71 /   0   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  42  67  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  69  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  45  70  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  55  75  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  68  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  73  40  68 /   0   0   0   5
Raton...........................  39  75  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  41  75  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  70  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  50  81  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  48  76  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  50  84  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  50  80  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  54  86  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  86  49  79 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  58  87  50  80 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  54  85  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  58  90  51  85 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  54  80  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  52  77  43  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-106-
109-121-123>126.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ223>229-
231>233-237>240.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ230-234>236.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42