Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 270906
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with near to above average warmth and afternoon breezes this
week. Critical fire weather conditions will be found mainly over
eastern New Mexico today and Memorial Day, but more widespread
conditions are possible Thursday and Friday. Low level moisture will
continue to push in and out of the eastern plains, where a few
thunderstorms are possible, but don`t expect widespread rain. Any
storms are most likely to develop over far northeast New Mexico
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Thick mid to high level clouds continue to track from west to east
over eastern NM early this morning. The drier air pushing in behind
these clouds in conjunction with the upper low circulation
developing over the Great Basin has sparked a narrow band of high
based showers with a few lightning strikes stretching from the
northern Albuquerque Metro through the Upper Rio Grande Valley and
to near Costilla. At the same time, low level moisture continues to
push farther westward than it did 24 hrs ago, towards the Pecos
Valley. The most recent HRRR hasn`t picked up on this existing
activity just yet, but the RAP13 has, and tends to keep it going as
it traverses over the eastern third of the state through sunrise and
into the early morning. Painted some 10 pops farther west over the
plains for today, although models suggest the activity will wane by
around 9 am, with low level moisture mixing out by midday. That
said, the HRRR is starting to develop some localized light
precipitation along the northeast NM border with TX later this
afternoon, so hopefully the areal coverage of current gridded pops
will be sufficient. Otherwise, breezy to windy over the northeast
and east central this afternoon but generally not strong or
widespread enough to trigger issuance of a wind advisory. Highs
across the east to be 10 to 15 degrees above average this afternoon,
with some near record temperatures possible, based on the higher
clouds clearing out this afternoon.

Temperatures remain near to above average this week, with afternoon
winds taking a break Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds strengthen again
later this week to boost fire weather concerns. A dry weather
pattern persists, although low level moisture will slosh in and out
of the eastern plains. Frontal boundaries look to brush the
northeast corner of the state Monday, but moreso Tuesday and
Wednesday, which could spark a few thunderstorms there. Another
front may impact the plains next weekend, but the GFS doesn`t show
any precipitation associated with it.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN SOME AREAS...

A large upper low over NV will move slowly eastward across northern
UT today. Stronger winds aloft well to the east of the upper low
will move across eastern NM this afternoon. Warm daytime
temperatures and an unstable atmosphere will allow stronger winds to
reach the surface this afternoon through early evening east of the
central mountains, where south to south southwest winds will range
from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. These winds combined with
the very dry air mass in place, temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
normal and high Haines values near 6 will create critical fire
weather conditions east of the central mountains this afternoon
through early evening.

The upper low will weaken Monday, as it moves slowly eastward over
the central Rockies. The area of strongest winds aloft will shift
northward, but there will still be an area of higher winds aloft
over northeast NM. In addition, a strong surface low pressure will
form in southeast CO Monday afternoon. This surface low will enhance
wind speeds Monday afternoon and early evening, as winds aloft reach
the surface. These stronger winds in conjunction with very low
relative humidity, very warm surface temperatures and continued
unstable conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions to
northeast NM Monday afternoon through early evening.

As the upper low weakens and becomes an open wave Tuesday, a weaker
west flow aloft will produce lighter winds. Though it will still be
very dry Tuesday afternoon with minimum relative humidity in the
single digits to lower teens, lighter winds will reduce the fire
weather threat. Haines values will fall into the low category in
northwest and north central NM Tuesday, but will be moderate to high
elsewhere. It will remain very dry and become more unstable
Wednesday with Haines values rising to near 6 across most of the
area. Light southwest winds on Wednesday will limit fire weather
concerns.

A large upper level trough will move across the U.S. West Coast
Thursday and across the Great Basin and interior Northwest U.S.
Friday. Winds aloft over NM will strengthen significantly ahead of
this large system Thursday and Friday. Strong winds east of the
central mountains Thursday and Friday, coincident with single digit
afternoon relative humidity and Haines values near 6, will create
the potential for critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions both days. Portions of western NM could be affected as
well by near critical to critical fire weather conditions Thursday
and Friday. Lighter winds are expected next weekend, as a large
upper level high over northern MX and TX builds northwestward across
NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Satellite imagery is showing a large band of mid and high clouds
moving east of western NM late this evening, and clearing should
spread into eastern NM overnight. Skies will be sunny on Sunday
across the entire area. VFR conditions will prevail tonight through
Sunday night. A lee surface trough over eastern CO and stronger winds
aloft on Sunday will generate southwest wind gusts from 25 to 35
knots in the afternoon. The strongest gusts will be across the
northeast plains.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  81  40  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  81  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  80  38  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  83  40  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  80  41  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  87  51  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  36  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  53  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  83  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  79  42  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  71  38  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  74  30  72  29 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  83  40  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  80  43  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  88  50  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  82  52  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  85  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  55  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  88  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  90  54  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  88  55  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  91  51  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  88  54  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  93  56  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  51  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  84  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  45  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  85  50  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  89  58  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  81  55  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  86  50  84  50 /   5   5   0  10
Raton...........................  89  48  87  49 /   5   5   0  10
Springer........................  90  47  88  48 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  84  47  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  92  57  90  56 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  90  52  88  53 /   0   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  98  58  95  58 /   0   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  96  58  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  99  62  96  61 /  10   5   0   5
Clovis..........................  96  61  95  60 /  10   5   5   5
Portales........................  98  63  96  61 /  10   5   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  99  61  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  63 101  62 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  94  60  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  87  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for the
following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104.

&&

$$



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