Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 200947
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
347 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will continue to push through eastern New Mexico
this morning and into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Winds
will remain elevated in channeled terrain along the Central Mountain
Chain through this evening. Southerly flow will develop over the
state Monday, bringing with it widespread showers and thunderstorms
as far west as the Continental Divide. Some storms may be severe,
mainly east of the the Central Mountain Chain. Temperatures will
gradually increase through the week as a ridge builds over the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In the short term, showers and thunderstorms have ended over the
Eastern Plains as the front has pushed southward and the activity has
shifted eastward into Texas. Winds have increased in channeled areas
along the Central Mountain Chain. These winds will remain brisk
through the day with a wind advisory in effect until XX AM today.
PoPs have been reduced today with this package as the main focus of
precipitation looks to be mainly along the higher terrain with the
best chances along the Sangres this afternoon.

Precipitation chances will increase over most of New Mexico on
Monday as moist southerly flow combined with a weak shortwave will
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms as far west as the
Continental Divide. The current outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction
Center has a marginal risk for severe weather for most of the region
on Monday. As of now, the best dynamics look to be over the Eastern
Plains where the main threat looks to be weak supercells with a
hail/wind threat. Model 0-1km CAPE values over the Eastern Plains
surge to near 3000 J/kg Monday afternoon with guidance suggesting
storm initiation being aided by the terrain. Any thunderstorms that
develop near the Continental Divide on Monday will likely be mostly
dry with gusty outflow winds. While widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time, future forecast packages should be
monitored for any changes.

For the remainder of the forecast package, showers and thunderstorms
will linger over the Eastern Plains through the period as a ridge
begins to reestablish itself over the Southwest. Temperatures will
increase through week as the ridge builds over the area.

54/Fontenot

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A backdoor cold front cleared the eastern plains of NM this morning
and is making its way through the Rio Grande Valley. Higher boundary
layer moisture and non-desiccating humidities are noted in its wake.
This surge of moisture will propagate toward the AZ/NM state line by
mid- or late morning. The biggest forecast challenge is related to
the relatively sharp moisture gradient between the AZ border and Rio
Grande Valley over the next couple of days due to moisture advection
Sun night and Monday and the recycling of moisture through afternoon
and evening convection.

Showers/storms today will be favored across the northern and south
central mtns as well as the adjacent highlands. Virga showers cannot
be ruled out across the Rio Grande Valley, resulting in gusty and/or
erratic winds. Upper level storm system diving into southern CA will
enhance upper level dynamics to support a broader risk for storms on
Monday into Tuesday. Based on local rules of thumb, it appears a mix
of wet/dry storms are expected from the AZ border to the Cont Divide
on Monday, resulting in an LAL of 6. Meanwhile, winds will increase
over western NM and may result in elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions during peak heating. SPC Day 2 Outlook highlights
elevated fire weather in our western zones, but will defer any watch
considerations for another forecast cycle due to the aforementioned
moisture challenges. On Tuesday, the mix of wet/dry storms should be
confined between the Cont Divide and central mountain chain.

Moisture will be shunted further east by mid-week as the upper level
storm system weakens and tracks through the Great Basin, with shower
and thunderstorm activity confined to the eastern plains. Afternoon
humidities will return to the single digits across the west. A lack
of significant winds will limit the threat for critical fire weather
conditions. Models diverge on the pattern for late in the week, with
the GFS20 rather bullish on another backdoor cold front replenishing
low-level moisture and higher precipitation chances. DPorter



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact Curry and
Roosevelt Counties for the next hour or two. MVFR and possibly IFR
ceilings are forecast to develop across the eastern plains tonight
with the backdoor cold front moving towards the Continental Divide.
These lower ceilings could impact the region through late morning.
Gusty north-northeast winds will impact terminals across the east
through mid- to late morning. Below canyon winds are expected for
the Rio Grande Valley into Sunday night, including both KSAF/KABQ.
An Aviation Weather Warning has already been posted for the 08Z to
15Z time frame. With added moisture across the region and a storm
system to the west, showers and thunderstorms will be more common
across central and eastern NM, with the best opportunity along and
east of the central mountain chain. Drier-type storms resulting in
gusty/erratic outflows are favored between the Continental Divide
and the central mountain chain. DPorter
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  83  48  83  49 /   0   5  30  30
Dulce...........................  74  41  75  42 /  10  20  30  70
Cuba............................  73  46  75  48 /   5   5  40  70
Gallup..........................  80  40  81  40 /   0   0  20  10
El Morro........................  75  40  75  39 /   5   0  30  10
Grants..........................  77  41  76  40 /   5   5  30  20
Quemado.........................  78  44  77  42 /   0   0  30   5
Glenwood........................  87  50  87  51 /   0   0  10   5
Chama...........................  68  36  69  37 /  20  20  40  70
Los Alamos......................  70  53  72  54 /  10  20  20  60
Pecos...........................  66  51  70  52 /  20  40  70  70
Cerro/Questa....................  67  43  70  46 /  10  10  20  50
Red River.......................  57  39  60  41 /  30  20  50  50
Angel Fire......................  63  30  66  32 /  40  20  70  70
Taos............................  72  40  75  43 /  10  10  20  50
Mora............................  64  42  68  44 /  30  40  60  70
Espanola........................  78  49  79  51 /   5  10  20  60
Santa Fe........................  70  51  73  53 /  10  20  70  60
Santa Fe Airport................  74  50  76  50 /   5  20  60  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  54  80  55 /  10  20  40  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  56  80  58 /   5  20  30  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  80  53  83  54 /   5  20  20  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  81  53  83  55 /   5  10  20  60
Los Lunas.......................  83  50  84  51 /   0  10  20  50
Rio Rancho......................  79  53  82  56 /   5  10  20  60
Socorro.........................  86  55  85  57 /   0  20  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  50  74  51 /  20  20  60  60
Tijeras.........................  74  50  76  52 /  20  20  50  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  73  43  78  44 /  10  20  50  60
Clines Corners..................  67  48  72  49 /  20  30  50  60
Gran Quivira....................  74  51  77  53 /   5   5  30  60
Carrizozo.......................  79  54  80  57 /   5  10  30  60
Ruidoso.........................  69  49  71  51 /  20  40  40  60
Capulin.........................  63  46  72  49 /  20  20  20  40
Raton...........................  68  44  75  48 /  20  20  40  40
Springer........................  67  46  75  49 /  20  20  50  50
Las Vegas.......................  64  45  70  46 /  20  40  70  70
Clayton.........................  69  51  78  55 /  10  20  10  30
Roy.............................  65  50  71  52 /  10  30  40  60
Conchas.........................  72  55  78  58 /  10  30  40  70
Santa Rosa......................  71  54  77  56 /  10  40  40  60
Tucumcari.......................  74  56  79  59 /  10  20  30  50
Clovis..........................  71  55  77  58 /  10  30  30  50
Portales........................  72  57  78  58 /  10  30  30  50
Fort Sumner.....................  74  57  79  59 /  10  20  50  60
Roswell.........................  79  61  82  62 /  20  30  30  60
Picacho.........................  73  56  76  56 /  20  50  40  70
Elk.............................  72  51  73  52 /  20  60  40  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for the following
zones... NMZ518-519.

&&

$$

54


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