Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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092 FXUS65 KABQ 020820 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 Cooler temperatures areawide today with the most notable cooling across far northeast and east central areas behind a backdoor front. Low clouds and patchy drizzle are expected across northeast areas Friday morning as the backdoor front is reinforced south and west and moves through the rest of eastern New Mexico. The backdoor front retreats northeast during the day Friday but a shower or storm could be possible across northeast NM if the boundary is slow to retreat. Another backdoor front moves through eastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday morning. This front combined with Gulf moisture moving into southeast New Mexico and a weak disturbance will bring the chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night. If a storm were to become strong to severe, it would probably occur in the far southeast around the Lea, Chaves and Roosevelt County borders. Moisture gets pushed quickly back towards Texas Sunday due to the next storm system moving into the Intermountain West with strong winds and critical fire weather conditions spreading east heading into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 An upper level trough moving through the central/southern Rockies is pushing a weak cold front south into northern NM currently and that airmass will make slow southward progress today. Cooling behind the front will be most notable across the east central and northeast plains behind the backdoor segment, where highs will be 10 or so degrees lower than yesterday`s. Despite the cooling, highs are forecast to reach slightly above normal most areas this afternoon. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds are forecast across central and western NM this afternoon, but not as strong as yesterday`s winds. The backdoor segment of the cold front will progress westward to the central mountain chain tonight into Friday morning, with low stratus filling in behind it as moist low level easterly flow prevails in the thin frontal layer. Weak westerly flow will prevail across the region Friday as another upper level trough moves east across the central Rockies. The trough will cause winds to back and increase in the lower levels across eastern NM, providing favorable veering wind profiles in the event storms develop late day. The latest NAM is advertising sufficient instability and bulk shear for strong and perhaps even low-end severe storms late Friday afternoon, with the best chances near the TX border. This is a low probability scenario with model spread noted in the 00Z model suite. Have introduced a slight chance mention from the east central plains north and west to the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 If the initial backdoor front mentioned in the short term does not fully retreat into the Texas panhandle, some showers and isolated storms could be possible across northeast Friday evening. Meanwhile, ABL decoupling after sunset Friday will allow the dryline across the Permian Basin in West Texas and the higher Gulf moisture ahead of it to retreat west into far southeast NM Friday night into Saturday morning. Another backdoor front due to a surface high on the backside of an upper level trough moving east into the central Great Plains will move through most of eastern NM come Saturday morning. Guidance is indicating drier air behind this backdoor front with PWATs of around 0.4 to 0.5 inches. This will put the highest moisture with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60s across far southeast NM (southern Roosevelt, southeast Chaves, eastern Eddy and Lea County). The backdoor front will also move through the gaps of the central mountain chain and bring a gusty east to southeast wind for Santa Fe and Albuquerque shortly after sunrise Saturday continuing during the day. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible. During the day Saturday, a shortwave will be moving northeast into the state along the subtropical jet ahead of an anomalously deep upper low moving into the Pacific NW. This shortwave will bring very dry low level southwest flow to southwest and south central NM with the backdoor front along a line from north central NM extending southeast to southern Chaves and north central Lea County. The dryline looks to extend south of the boundary along the Lea and Eddy County line. Some afternoon and early evening virga showers/dry storms and resultant erratic wind gusts could be possible across north central NM north of front due to some mid level moisture from the upper level disturbance. The 0Z suite of models are honing in on the placement of the initial development of storms to be across the southern Roosevelt, southeast Chaves, northeast Eddy and northern Lea County borders as this is where the highest moisture and instability is located south of the backdoor front and east of the dryline. If a storm were to become strong to severe, it will probably be in this zone before moving northeast into the Texas Panhandle and West Texas Permian Basin. These storms will send outflows back west into eastern NM and outflow interactions could result in the development of more showers and storms heading into early Saturday night likely remaining below severe limits. This outflow will likely move west through the gaps of the central mountain chain and bring another increase in moisture reinforce the southeast wind across the ABQ and Santa Fe metros Saturday evening into Saturday night with the NAM guidance indicating winds close to Wind Advisory criteria at KABQ. This moisture and the dryline quickly mixes east towards the Texas border Sunday due to increasing southwest flow and a dryslot ahead of the Pacific upper low moving into the Great Basin. A stray shower or storm could form along the dryline across the NM/ TX border Sunday afternoon if the dryline does`t mix as quickly before quickly moving east into Texas. Increasing upper level southwest flow across western and central NM will result in a windy day across this part of the state with the strongest winds near the Arizona border where Wind Advisories might be needed. With the winds and single digit to low teens RHs critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and central NM. The upper low moves to the northern and central Rockies Monday sending a Pacific cold front through western and central NM Sunday night into Monday morning and cooling temperatures there. The front could generate a few snow showers in the Tusas before much drier air moves in across the entire region indicated by PWATs around 0.10 inches this will result in critical fire weather conditions, especially across central and eastern NM. West winds will be gusty at the base of the upper low with Wind Advisories likely needed for the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands and plains in northeast and east central NM. West winds remain very brisk due to the stronger upper level flow at the base of the upper low across the region with temperatures warming back up across western and central NM. Another day of widespread critical fire weather looks likely with this setup. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, although low stratus may flirt with KTCC overnight. A weak backdoor front will bring a wind shift to KLVS and KTCC overnight. Elsewhere, gusty westerly flow will prevail Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM MDT Thu May 2 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR POTENTIAL LARGE FIRE GROWTH SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK... Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail through Saturday across western and portions of central NM, while two backdoor fronts supply moist easterly upslope flow and higher humidity to much of eastern NM. The increased moisture across eastern NM may fuel a few wetting storms by late Friday and Saturday, with the best chances near the TX border. A few dry lightning strikes are possible across north central NM Saturday afternoon as the backdoor front makes further progress westward into central NM and provides sufficient moisture for late day buildups. A critical fire weather pattern will develop Sunday and continue through the middle of next week with the potential for large fire growth as a potent upper level trough moves east across the region and strong westerly flow continues in it`s wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 37 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 67 30 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 67 36 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 71 32 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 69 36 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 73 33 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 70 37 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 74 45 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 70 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 75 33 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 79 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 32 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 70 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 70 39 71 40 / 0 0 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 66 40 / 0 0 10 0 Red River....................... 59 29 60 31 / 0 0 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 62 26 63 28 / 0 0 20 0 Taos............................ 69 32 71 35 / 0 0 10 0 Mora............................ 68 35 68 35 / 0 0 20 0 Espanola........................ 76 41 77 44 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 71 44 73 45 / 0 0 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 74 41 76 43 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 77 51 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 48 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 81 45 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 81 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 46 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 81 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 75 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 80 48 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 83 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 70 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 72 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 73 40 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 75 35 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 38 72 38 / 0 0 5 0 Mountainair..................... 73 41 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 73 41 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 77 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 71 45 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 38 69 36 / 20 10 20 5 Raton........................... 73 36 73 37 / 10 10 20 0 Springer........................ 75 38 74 39 / 5 5 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 72 38 70 38 / 0 5 20 0 Clayton......................... 71 44 72 43 / 10 10 30 20 Roy............................. 73 44 71 43 / 10 10 20 5 Conchas......................... 79 48 77 48 / 10 10 20 5 Santa Rosa...................... 79 46 77 45 / 0 5 20 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 48 76 48 / 10 10 20 10 Clovis.......................... 80 50 79 50 / 10 10 20 10 Portales........................ 82 51 81 51 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Sumner..................... 82 49 81 49 / 0 5 20 0 Roswell......................... 90 55 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 83 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 80 47 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...11