832
FXUS65 KABQ 292341 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The recent warming trend will continue through mid week with high
temperatures peaking around 3 to 13 degrees above 1991 to 2020
averages on Wednesday. Southwest winds will also become breezy to
windy on Wednesday with very low humidities and widespread fire
weather concerns east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures
will cool closer to 30-year averages as winds shift out of the
northwest and remain breezy on Thursday. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and northeast plains near the Colorado border both Thursday and
Friday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread to
the area along and east of the central mountain chain on
Saturday, then dryline thunderstorms are expected on the eastern
plains Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the east this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Fair weather reigns supreme this evening, tonight and Tuesday.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the 30s in the higher
elevations and low-lying high altitude valley locations, with 40s in
the mid-elevations and across the eastern plains. A few lower spots
will dip to near 50F, Roswell being one. Quasi-zonal flow aloft
remains Tuesday, strengthening a tad. Breezy westerlies gusting 15
to 25 mph will be aided be a modest 998mb MLSP surface low along the
NM/CO border east of Raton Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures
climb 5F to 10F above normal into the 60s in the mountains, 70s in
the middle elevations, and 80s in the valleys. Roswell will again be
the hot spot with a forecast high of 93F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The warming trend will continue Wednesday, and breezy to windy
conditions will develop with fire weather concerns as an upper
level trough crossing the northern and central Rockies strengthens
the flow aloft over NM. The strongest winds on Wednesday
afternoon may reach 45 mph across northeast areas, where a strong
lee trough will develop south of a ~989 mb surface low in
southeast CO. The upper trough is forecast to drive a gusty
Pacific cold front southeastward through the forecast area on
Thursday, then a backdoor cold front southward through the eastern
plains Thursday afternoon and night. Models now indicate the
backdoor cold front may be deep enough to seep into the central
valley with a light east wind below canyons late Thursday night
into early Friday morning. After high temperatures around 3-13
degrees above 1991-2020 averages across the forecast area on
Wednesday, readings will fall around 3-13 degrees with continued
breezy conditions on Thursday. There may be a few showers and
thunderstorms along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
near the CO border Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. An
upper level trough crossing the northwest US will draw a moist,
southeasterly, low-level, return flow into the forecast area
Friday night and Saturday. This should set the stage for scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the
central mountain chain Saturday afternoon and night, then some
dryline thunderstorms on the eastern plains Sunday. At this time
an upper level low pressure system on the west coast is forecast
to move inland a little too slowly to produce enough wind shear
over NM for much in the way of severe weather this weekend. There
may be a few strong to severe storms, but a severe weather
outbreak seems unlikely. Some cells over central areas on Saturday
afternoon will be capable of dry microbursts with erratic wind
gusts up to 50 mph. High temperatures will trend warmer over the
weekend reaching around 3-11 degrees above 30-year averages on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Dry west to northwest flow aloft will continue to result in VFR
conditons and light to moderate breezes areawide during the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...

Dry and relatively warm weather today continues Tuesday with a
slight uptick in westerly to southwesterly wind speeds. Winds
increase further Wednesday with peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph focusing
through the northeastern highlands and plains in the afternoon.
Windy conditions combined with above normal warmth, minimum humidity
falling below 10 percent, and Haines 6 will allow for widespread
critical fire weather conditions across the eastern highlands and
plains zones Wednesday afternoon. The Fire Weather Watch already
issued for this area Wednesday will be left unchanged. Elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions will extend into the Rio
Grande Valley as well, but wind speeds and/or ERCs are the current
limiting factor Wednesday afternoon. A potential expansion of fire
highlights into the Upper and Middle Rio Grande Valley is still
possible for Wednesday.

Winds turn northerly to northwesterly most areas with a dip in
temperatures Thursday. Northeasterly winds and a sharper cool down
are forecast behind a cold front backing into northeastern and east-
central NM Thursday. This frontal boundary will also bring a nice
influx of low-level moisture and better humidity. The front is
expected to push to the east slopes of the central mountain chain by
Friday morning, with winds behind it veering out of the southeast.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorm activity increases across eastern
NM late Friday and into the weekend as return flow brings low-level
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in eastern NM. Areas along and we

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  76  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  32  71  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  38  71  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  33  74  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  36  71  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  34  75  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  37  74  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  77  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  78  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  66  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  46  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  42  73  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  35  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  30  64  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  34  73  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  38  71  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  40  79  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  74  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  77  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  42  82  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  39  83  40  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  46  81  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  38  82  40  84 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  47  81  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  83  40  84 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  48  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  80  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  72  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  44  75  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  41  76  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  77  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  40  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  42  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  79  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  72  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  40  75  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  37  79  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  38  80  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  41  75  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  47  83  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  45  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  47  88  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  45  85  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  90  47  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  50  86  50  89 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  48  88  49  91 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  46  88  47  89 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  52  93  53  94 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  46  80  48  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33