Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 142050
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 PM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold calm night is in-store for New Mexico with winds calming
across far northeastern New Mexico. Sunday will see warmer
temperatures with sunny to mostly sunny skies. The next storm system
begins to bring increased winds Monday, and high winds Tuesday with
more critical fire weather conditions to go along with it. Wednesday
will see a restbit between systems with warmer temperatures and
calmer winds before the next wind event arrives Thursday and Friday.
Increased Gulf moisture flowing into far eastern New Mexico Thursday
will likely produce a few thunderstorms in the afternoon over the
panhandles of TX/OK. A few of those storms could form over far
eastern New Mexico. The weekend looks to start cooler and calmer,
warming into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Windy conditions continue over far northeastern NM this afternoon,
diminishing this evening. Winds statewide will continue to calm with
mostly clear skies allowing radiational cooling to drop overnight
lows several to 15F below normal. Valley areas are likely to see
Wednesday morning lows colder than this previous morning by a degree
or two. High pressure will continue to build in from the west
bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures to New Mexico
Sunday. Some high clouds across the NW third of the state could limit
the warming trend a bit for places like Gallup, Farmington, and
Chama.

The ridge starts exiting the region Monday as the next Pacific storm
moves into the Great Basin region. SW winds pick up ahead of this
system Monday afternoon, with another round of high winds by Tuesday
afternoon. Warmth, extreme dryness, and increased winds during Monday
and Tuesday will produce more critical fire weather conditions those
days (see Fire Wx Discussion for further details). The current timing
of the front brings it into the ABQ and RGV area around mid-day
Tuesday. Therefore highs Tuesday for central NM will be greatly
dependent on the timing of the frontal passage and are the part of
this forecast package with the lowest confidence. Highs across the
east remain well above normal, falling Wednesday. There is little
chance for any precip. associated with this system, only a shot at a
stray shower or two across the NM San Juans/Tusas Mtns Tuesday.

The next week ridge of high pressure moves in Wednesday with
temperatures warming across the west. Yet another Pacific storm
enters the picture starting Thursday with SW winds picking up across
the area. Models continue to depict a southerly influx of Gulf
moisture into far eastern NM and the panhandles of TX/OK. Model
trends have been further east into TX/OK, but have left a mention of
sct thunderstorms across far eastern NM Thursday afternoon/evening.
Friday will see increased west winds and a shot at a few showers
across the northern mtns with the passage of this system. The
chugging train of Pacific storm systems bringing strong winds to NM
every few days looks to continue into late April.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

A sunny, but cool day prevails with much less wind in the wake of
the departing Pacific system. Below normal temperatures persist, but
this will change with a renewed warming and drying trend beginning
tomorrow as a ridge passes over the region. A few hours of elevated
fire weather conditions are likely across far western New Mexico
Sunday afternoon, where Haines values of 5 to 6 are likely, but
winds will fall short of critical threshold.

Monday and Tuesday are still looking like critical fire weather days
with the potential for large fire growth, as a Pacific trough and
associated front approach from the west and pass over. Monday still
checks all the boxes, with preceeding poor humidity recovery, good
coverage of Haines 6, many hours of single digit humidity, above
normal temperatures, excellent mixing and a deepening lee side
trough to near 995mb across east central Colorado. The Pacific front
will push through Tuesday, coinciding with the strongest core of
winds aloft. Higher Haines will be confined to the eastern half on
Tuesday, but most of the area will hit critical threshold again.

Wednesday looks like a down day prior to the next Pacific
trough/low, forecast to impact New Mexico and Colorado toward the
end of the week. The western two-thirds of our area still looks on
track for critical fire weather conditions Thursday as the upper low
approaches, with Gulf moisture penetrating into the Eastern Plains
bringing the potential for storms and wetting precipitation there.
Critical fire weather conditions may persist into Friday across
southern and eastern portions of our area, dependent on the
progression/timing of the upper low.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with some
afternoon gustiness.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  29  70  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  22  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  25  64  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  21  71  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  67  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  25  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  34  77  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  19  58  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  29  64  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  24  63  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  20  59  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  17  51  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  17  56  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  21  64  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  22  63  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  28  70  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  26  64  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  27  67  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  33  70  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  36  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  73  43  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  35  72  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  74  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  34  72  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  37  76  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  27  64  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  30  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  20  70  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  24  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  31  68  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  35  70  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  31  65  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  22  60  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  23  65  30  75 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  24  66  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  23  64  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  27  62  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  62  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  30  70  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  71  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  30  71  42  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  29  68  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  30  69  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  31  70  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  75  42  88 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  34  72  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  32  71  43  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ530.

&&

$$

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