Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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853 FXUS65 KABQ 301709 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1109 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Warm temperatures and clear skies continue today with some afternoon breezes. Temperatures peak with breezy to locally windy southwest to west winds areawide Wednesday ahead of a system over the northern Rockies. The system moves north of the state Thursday cooling temperatures 5 to 10 degrees areawide along with a backdoor front entering far northeast areas. Some low clouds are possible across northeast areas Friday morning as the backdoor front moves through the rest of eastern New Mexico. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico returns to eastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday morning. This moisture combined with a weak disturbance and another backdoor front will bring the chance for showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night. A few more storms are possible along the dryline across the New Mexico and Texas border Sunday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Moderate and dry westerly flow will continue over the region today, then back to the southwest and increase some on Wednesday. An accompanying warming trend will continue as well, with daytime temperatures rising above normal areawide today and Wednesday. The positive high temperature anomalies will be greatest across the eastern plains today and tomorrow thanks to help from downslope winds. A lee side trough will deepen on Wednesday as an upper level trough moves from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. The lee side low is modeled to deepen to near 990mb across southeast CO, which is favorable placement to enhance winds across at least the northeast quarter of our area where windy conditions are expected, although speeds are forecast to remain below advisory threshold at this time. Of note, Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 95 degrees Wednesday, which would tie for the hottest high temperature there so far this year. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 The upper level trough mentioned in the short term will move across the central Rockies and eject into the northern and central Great Plains Thursday. With that, a Pacific front will move through the state during the day cooling temperatures 5 to 10 degrees compared to Wednesday areawide. A very dry airmass will be behind the Pacific front with single digit dewpoints along and north of a line from northern Catron to northern DeBaca County. The trough and a surface high over the Intermountain West will also help send a backdoor front and some higher moisture with dewpoints around 30 degrees into northeast NM from around Clovis northward to Union County. Stiff mid level westerly flow during the afternoon looks to limit the southwest progress of the backdoor front. Once the ABL decouples and the westerly flow relaxes Thursday evening, this will allow the backdoor front and the higher moisture behind it to make progress south and west through all of eastern NM come Friday morning. With the higher low level moisture some low clouds will be possible across a good portion of northeast NM. The backdoor front looks to make it far enough west to seep into the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros and give a light east wind of around 5 to 10 kts Friday morning. The backdoor front quickly mixes east and washes out Friday ahead of another shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies. Temperatures across western and central NM rebound 3 to 7 degrees from Thursday`s highs. A dryline will set up just east of the NM/TX border Friday evening. ABL decoupling after sunset Friday will then allow the dryline and the higher Gulf moisture and PWATS of around 0.7 to 0.9 inches ahead of it will retreat west into eastern NM Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, another backdoor front due to a surface high on the backside of Friday`s upper level trough will move through northeast and most of east central NM come Saturday morning. This moisture and aforementioned surface boundaries along with an upper level disturbance moving northeast from Mexico along the subtropical jet will result in the development of some late day storms across the eastern plains. Storms could become strong to severe. Elsewhere, some afternoon and early evening virga showers and resultant erratic wind gusts could also be possible across the middle RGV due to some mid level moisture from the upper level disturbance. Storms across the eastern plains gradually exit east into West Texas Saturday night with the outflow from these storms sending some higher moisture through the gaps of the central mountain chain into the middle RGV sunrise Sunday morning. This moisture and the dryline mixes east towards the Texas border Sunday due to increasing southwest flow ahead of a Pacific upper low moving into the Western US. There is uncertainty to how far the dryline mixes east due to the placement and amplitude of the low, with the ECMWF and it`s ensembles having the upper low over the Pacific NW and the GFS and its ensembles having the low over California. The ECMWF solution would mix the dryline further east compared to the GFS. If the dryline does not mix as far east, a stray shower or storm could be possible near the Texas border. Forecast confidence on the strength of winds for next Monday decreases greatly due to differences in the track of the upper low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR with widespread skc prevails through the TAF period. Breezy to locally windy westerly to southwesterly winds peak this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 kts at most terminals. Winds decouple and taper off overnight again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE UPPER RGV LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE... Winds aloft and at the surface are forecast to trend up through Wednesday with an increasingly hot, dry and unstable atmosphere, especially across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch continues for much of eastern NM Wednesday when a deepening lee side trough will help to enhance wind speeds. Added the Upper RGV to the watch given winds and humidity forecast to exceed critical threshold and the RFTI showing critical for that fire weather zone. A weak Pacific cold front will move through Wednesday night and bring some cooling and limit potential for critical fire weather conditions on Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will bring higher humidity to much of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday, while central and western NM remain hot, dry and unstable with afternoon breezes. Another weak backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Friday night into Saturday, while western NM continues hot, dry and unstable. Wetting storms are possible Friday near the TX border, with a better signal for storms on Saturday across the east central plains. Southwest flow will trend up Sunday across western and central NM in advance of an upper level trough/low, bringing the potential for critical fire weather conditions while Gulf moisture hangs on across the eastern plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 41 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 33 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 70 38 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 33 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 37 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 75 34 76 35 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 73 38 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 73 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 78 35 77 35 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 66 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 72 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 72 40 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 62 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 28 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 72 34 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 71 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 43 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 74 45 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 77 42 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 78 53 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 80 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 82 48 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 80 49 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 83 46 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 80 49 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 82 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 81 47 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 82 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 79 49 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 85 50 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 72 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 42 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 77 36 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 73 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 44 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 44 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 73 49 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 76 40 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 80 37 81 38 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 81 39 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 77 41 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 84 45 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 81 45 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 86 46 90 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 84 46 88 49 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 90 48 92 49 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 88 51 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 89 51 91 53 / 0 0 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 88 49 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 94 54 95 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 85 52 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 82 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for NMZ104-121-123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...24