Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 132130
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 PM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad upper level low pressure system will continue to exit slowly
eastward from Colorado into the Great Plains states tonight and
Saturday. Strong winds with the system will end most places around
sunset, but they will persist across northeast and far east central
New Mexico tonight and Saturday. Some light snow and rain will also
linger across the eastern plains and Sangre de Cristo Mountains
tonight. A warming trend will commence Saturday through Monday. Wind
and fire weather concerns will redevelop Monday and especially
Tuesday as a storm system passing north of New Mexico steers the jet
stream over our state with an attendant cold front at the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A speed maximum aloft, on the back side of the slowly exiting broad
upper level low pressure system, will track south southeastward
across far northeast and east central NM tonight through Saturday.
Speeds at 700 mb should peak about 70 kt late tonight and Saturday
morning. The surface pressure gradient across NE NM should also be
tight enough to support gusts over 60 mph across the plains of Union
County. Gusts up to 50 mph will be possible almost as far west as
Raton Pass and as far south as Clovis and Portales on Saturday. Will
let the night shift re-assess the need for a Wind Advisory south of
Union County. There is already a Wind Advisory in effect for the
Raton Pass zone east of I-25, and a High Wind Warning for Union
County.

There could be a dusting of snow tonight along and east of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains.

Though high temperatures will rebound a few to 11 degrees northwest
of a Tucumcari-Dunken line on Saturday, readings won`t rise above
normal until Sunday central and west, and until Monday farther east.
Highs should peak on Monday around 4 to 12 degrees above normal,
before falling below normal across western and north central areas
with a Pacific cold front on Tuesday.

Fire weather concerns will become widespread again Monday and Tuesday
as the jet stream passes eastward along the CO/NM border. A potent
lee trough will also develop south of a roughly 994 mb surface low
in eastern CO tightening the surface pressure gradient. Surface
winds will become windy again Monday and Tuesday, when gusts from 40
to 50 mph will be possible. Gusts may reach up to 60 mph again on
Tuesday along and east of the central mountain chain.

Another ridge of high pressure should cross toward the middle of next
week with weaker winds and warmer temperatures after a cool down that
lingers in the east through Wednesday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

Strong cold air advection prevails today behind the cold front, but
critical fire weather conditions persist across southern portions of
the East Central Plains, the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of
the West Central Highlands. Winds will trend down most areas
Saturday as the upper low pulls slowly further away from New Mexico.
Cold air will remain in place Saturday, with below normal
temperatures forecast. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely
Saturday afternoon across northwest portions of the state, but the
atmosphere will be relatively stable. A ridge will move east over
the state Sunday and lead to a renewed drying/warning trend.
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely Sunday afternoon across
far western New Mexico, with winds being the only limiter.

Monday and Tuesday still look like slam-dunk critical fire weather
days as a Pacific trough and associated cold front approach and pass
over the state. All of the boxes check-off for Monday, including
Haines 5-6, numerous hours of single digit humidity, excellent
mixing, preceeding mostly poor humidity recovery and windy
conditions with a deepening lee side trough. The Pacific trough and
cold front will push over Tuesday, but little cold air advection is
expected. Critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday may not be as
widespread, but at least the eastern two-thirds of the area will be
set with areas east of the Central Mountain Chain the most unstable.

Look for a short-lived break next Wednesday with another,
potentially stronger, upper level trough/low approaching Thursday
and leading to more critical fire weather potential. Gulf moisture
may occupy portions of the Eastern Plains Thursday, so roughly the
western two-thirds of the area will be the focus for critical
conditions Thursday. Critical fire weather potential continues into
Friday of next week as the trough/low moves slowly over Colorado.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong/gusty northwest flow prevails and will persist into the
evening hours, then trend down. A backdoor cold front is making
southward progress across the northeast plains and will impact KLVS
and KTCC this afternoon/evening with a wind shift and potential for
MVFR conditions in showers. Mountain obscurations should be limited
to the higher elevations of the northern mountains. Otherwise, VFR
conditions prevail and are forecast to persist.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  27  61  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  20  56  23  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  21  53  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  21  58  21  71 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  21  55  21  66 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  23  58  24  70 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  21  56  26  69 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  29  68  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  16  49  20  58 /   5   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  24  54  30  64 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  21  54  26  62 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  17  49  21  59 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  14  39  18  51 /  30   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  16  46  18  57 /  30   0   0   0
Taos............................  17  54  22  64 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  20  51  23  61 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  24  59  30  69 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  22  54  28  64 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  22  58  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  59  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  63  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  30  63  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  30  64  35  74 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  30  62  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  35  66  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  23  53  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  24  56  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  21  59  27  70 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  55  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  26  57  32  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  30  60  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  25  52  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  20  46  23  60 /  40   5   0   0
Raton...........................  22  53  23  65 /  30   0   0   0
Springer........................  24  55  25  66 /  30   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  22  54  25  63 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  26  51  28  63 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  26  52  27  62 /  30   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  31  59  32  71 /  40   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  29  60  31  71 /  30   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  31  60  32  71 /  40   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  30  58  31  69 /  40   0   0   0
Portales........................  30  59  32  70 /  40   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  31  61  32  71 /  30   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  35  65  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  31  61  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  28  57  34  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ501-504-521-523-524-526-533-535>540.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ106-108-109.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ534.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones...
 NMZ530.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ502-503-505>508-511-518>520-522-525.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ527.

&&

$$

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