Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 130938
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong winds will persist today over much of northern and
central New Mexico, with widespread critical fire weather conditions
mainly south of Interstate 40. Much colder air will spread from
northwest to southeast over the region today and tonight, and strong
north winds will usher in this colder air over northeast New Mexico.
Scattered showers will be focused over the northern mountains today
and shift to northeast New Mexico this afternoon and tonight, where
isolated thunderstorms are possible. Snow accumulations will be
focused over the Sangre de Cristo mountains, with about 3 to 5
inches, while 1 to 3 inches are possible in the Raton Pass area.
Temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be near to below
freezing for most of the region. A warming and drying trend Sunday
will become more pronounced Monday as winds increase, with
widespread critical fire weather conditions possible. Windy weather
persists Tuesday with widespread critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very strong to possibly damaging winds persist today over much of
the west and south, with the focus for strong winds shifts to
northeast New Mexico this evening and overnight, as the departing
upper low bombs and the back door cold front plunges into the
plains. Ended up extending/reissuing wind highlights for much of the
southeast half of the forecast area for today into this evening and
just shifted in time some of the eastern NM wind advisories as KROW
started hitting wind advisory on the most recent ob. As the back
door front invades northeast New Mexico tonight, will likely need to
hoist additional wind advisories or even high wind warnings, with
the LAV indicating high wind for Clayton this evening.

Some snow accumulations today and tonight focused on the Sangre de
Cristo mts and Raton Pass area. Think impact will not be widespread
so not intending on any winter weather highlights for now, although
minor amounts of snow are possible along the Interstate 25 corridor
from Las Vegas to Raton Pass and eastward.

Near freezing lows tonight/Saturday night in the east and in
particular the Roswell area, not outside of climo though, except
perhaps the Roswell airport where it`s within a couple of degrees
and a few days beyond the 50th percentile for 32F. Therefore unless
the guidance gets colder, which will have to be monitored, not
planning on any freeze highlights. That said, locally colder
temperatures are possible in unprotected areas.

Warmer and less windy Sunday, then increasing wind Monday/Tuesday,
with highs above climo Monday. A more vigorous upper system possible
Thursday with dryline storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY TODAY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...

The base of the upper level trough will continue to shift eastward
over NM this morning, and by mid day, NM will be on the back side of
the system with strong northwest flow aloft. An associated Pacific
cold front is making its way through the state this morning which
will result in high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal - a
stark change from yesterday. Despite this cooling, continued dry air
and very strong winds will persist today. Humidities will fall below
15 percent across most areas south of I-40. Northwest winds will be
strongest across the western and southern areas where gusts between
50 and 60 mph are likely. Given the fires that developed yesterday
and the aforementioned winds and RH, will issue a Red Flag Warning
for Zones 106, 108 and 109.  Given the cooler temperatures and more
stable conditions overall, would not expect fire behavior to be as
extreme as yesterday. The back door segment of the cold front will
push into northeast NM by mid day, and a chance for rain and snow is
possible, especially along the Colorado border. The front will
continue to press southward through the afternoon. Humidities will
increase behind the front, though winds will remain strong but
switch out of the north. Critical fire weather conditions across the
East Central Plains may end earlier than in Zones 106 and 109 due to
increased humidity behind the front.

Saturday will remain breezy with northwest flow aloft. The strongest
winds will be across Union County where gusts near 50 to 55 mph will
be possible. As the gradient relaxes late Saturday, the winds will
as well. Upper level ridging is on tap for Sunday. Warmer temps and
much less wind will be in store. However, very dry conditions will
persist with several hours of single digit RH across central and
western NM.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to return
Monday and Tuesday as another trough moves north of NM. Extremely
dry conditions are expected each day with 8 to 12 hours of single
digit humidities area wide on Monday, and 4 to 8 hours on Tuesday
across central and eastern NM. Winds will also really crank back up.
Southwesterly winds on Monday will range from 20 to 30 mph with
gusts near 40 or 45 mph, and on Tuesday, even stronger winds are
expected. Gusts near 60 mph will be possible across portions of
eastern NM. High Haines indices are expected on Monday. They will be
slightly lower Tuesday because a Pacific front will again move
through the area, though temperatures behind the front will not be
as cold as they will be today.

Yet another storm system will impact the state late in the week. At
this time, it looks like western and central NM will be windy and
dry on Thursday, while Gulf moisture is drawn up into eastern NM,
perhaps providing enough fuel for thunderstorms. On Friday, it looks
like strong westerly winds may return, though humidities should be
higher with the potential for wrap-around precipitation.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Strong west to northwest winds will continue
overnight, especially across central and south central areas with
gusts between 40 and 50kt possible. BLDU will remain a concern
though significant reductions in visibility are not expected
overnight. A cold front, currently across northwest NM, will
continue to press southeast, switching winds around to the
northwest. A band of clouds along and behind the front may obscure
mt tops overnight and some light precip is possible. Winds will
increase across all but northeast NM by mid morning, and will
persist into the early evening hours with gusts of 40 to 50kt. BLDU
may reduce visibilities during the aftn. Additionally, a back door
cold front will push into northeast NM today, increasing the
potential for light precipitation as well as switching winds across
to the north. This front will press southward through the evening.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  26  59  27 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  21  53  20 /  10   5   0   0
Cuba............................  44  23  52  23 /  20   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  48  18  58  18 /  10   0   0   0
El Morro........................  44  19  55  18 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  48  22  58  20 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  48  22  57  24 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  59  28  65  32 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  16  48  18 /  20  10   0   5
Los Alamos......................  45  26  53  32 /  10   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  46  21  53  27 /  10  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  16  51  20 /  20  20   0   5
Red River.......................  37  14  40  15 /  30  50   5   5
Angel Fire......................  41  16  45  14 /  30  30   5   0
Taos............................  47  16  54  21 /  20  20   0   0
Mora............................  45  19  50  23 /  20  50   0   0
Espanola........................  50  19  57  24 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  20  55  25 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  50  22  57  27 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  28  57  33 /   5   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  32  61  37 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  26  62  30 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  27  62  30 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  28  63  33 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  53  30  60  34 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  33  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  23  51  27 /  10   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  25  54  30 /   5   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  17  58  18 /   5   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  46  22  55  27 /   5  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  26  58  31 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  54  30  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  26  53  33 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  49  20  47  23 /  40  30   5   0
Raton...........................  51  21  54  23 /  30  30   0   0
Springer........................  50  21  54  24 /  30  30   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  21  53  24 /  20  30   0   0
Clayton.........................  52  26  53  29 /  30  20   0   0
Roy.............................  50  25  54  27 /  30  30   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  29  58  29 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  30  60  30 /   5  20   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  57  32  62  32 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  30  59  30 /   5  10   0   0
Portales........................  60  31  60  32 /   5  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  32  62  33 /   5  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  68  35  66  36 /   0   5   0   0
Picacho.........................  59  32  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  28  58  34 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ521-523-524-526-533-539-540.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ106-108-109.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ529-532-534>538.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ506>508-511-519-520-522.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ502-503-505-518-525.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ501-504.

&&

$$



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