Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 210852
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
252 AM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances are on the uptrend today in the form of thunderstorms as
Gulf moisture continues to increase across the state in advance of a
Pacific low, currently over central California. Strong storms are
likely by late afternoon and evening, with a few possibly becoming
severe. Storms will shift east overnight and focus over the eastern
half of the state. Drier air will overtake western New Mexico
Tuesday, with storms continuing to favor the eastern half. A dry
airmass will push further east Wednesday, causing storms to focus
closer to the Texas border. A warming and drying trend is forecast
from late week into the weekend, with above normal temperatures and
many locales hitting up into the 90s for highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Moisture advection is underway ahead of an upper level low that is
currently closing-off over central California. Gulf moisture is
working northwest across the state and will send the PWAT at KABQ up
to between 0.85-0.95" by this evening, which is above the 90th
percentile for the day and only a few hundredths of an inch below
daily record values. Plenty of moisture, combined with increasing
instability and the approach of the upper low, will bring good
chances for thunderstorms to much of central and eastern New Mexico
later today and overnight into Tuesday morning. Well developed, deep
convection is likely by late day with a few storms possibly becoming
severe. In particular, the latest NAM has sbCAPE of 1500-2700 J/kg in
the lower/middle RGV by late day, with LIs of -5 to -7C and 0-6km
Bulk Shear of 30-40kts, which may be sufficient for supercell
thunderstorms. Be aware that strong to severe storms may impact the
I-25 corridor between Santa Fe, Albuquerque and Socorro during the
evening rush hour. Another focus area later today for strong to
severe storms will be the South Central Mountains and nearby
highlands thanks in part to the added forcing associated with upslope
low level flow and higher surface dewpoint temperatures. Storms are
forecast to shift east overnight as the upper low makes slow
eastward progress. A dry slot is forecast to rotate around the base
of the upper low into our area Tuesday, which will sharpen-up a
dryline with daytime heating/mixing. Chances for storms on Tuesday
will be confined to the Northern Mountains and eastern New Mexico. By
Wednesday, the upper low will open-up and pull off to the northeast
from over the Great Basin. Southwest flow and a dry airmass will be
the story for western and central New Mexico, but chances for storms
will persist across far eastern portions of the state where Gulf
moisture will hang-on through Wednesday night.

An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify over the Intermountain
West late Thursday into Friday, then shift east over Rockies and New
Mexico on Saturday. Look for a warming trend late week into the
weekend, with above normal temperatures forecast. The Albuquerque
Sunport is forecast to hit above 90 degrees for highs from Friday
through Sunday.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Best shot in quite some time at wetting rainfall (< 0.10") for areas
of central and especially eastern New Mexico today and tonight. Main
fire weather concern is dry thunderstorms on the edge of low-level
Gulf moisture near and west of the continental divide this
afternoon. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be primarily
wet with strong to severe storms with large hail possible most areas
but especially east.

Drier air moves into western and central NM Tuesday, confining
showers and thunderstorms to the eastern plains. Thunderstorm
chances remain across eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening
before drier air moves in to all areas except southeast plains
Thursday.

Models agree that moderate southwest flow aloft will transition into
an upper-level ridge Friday. Despite above average temperatures, a
dry and unstable airmass Friday into the weekend, critical fire
weather conditions are not expected as winds remain below criteria.

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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Southwest flow aloft remains over NM tonight as a closed low sinks
south through central and southern CA. Surface high pressure over
central KS with sfc low over southeast UT resulting in light to
moderate east to se sfc winds across NM. Areas of MVFR to IFR cigs
and patchy br expected to develop along the east slopes of the
central mt chain over the ern plains aft 21/08Z with models
indicating isold showers embedded in the lower clouds. Cigs to
slowly improve over the east aft 21/15Z with showers and tstms
breaking out from the Contdvd to the central mt chain aft 21/12Z and
become more widespread aft 21/18Z. Some of the storms could become
strong to possibly severe with large hail and gusty winds btwn
21/21Z-22/06Z.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  51  81  47 /  20  20   0   5
Dulce...........................  75  44  76  42 /  40  60  20  20
Cuba............................  74  48  75  45 /  30  60  10  10
Gallup..........................  81  39  79  38 /  10  10   0   0
El Morro........................  76  39  76  37 /  20  10   0   0
Grants..........................  78  42  79  38 /  30  30   0   5
Quemado.........................  78  43  77  41 /  10   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  86  50  84  50 /  10   5   0   0
Chama...........................  70  40  70  35 /  50  70  30  20
Los Alamos......................  70  50  72  53 /  40  60  20  20
Pecos...........................  68  49  71  50 /  60  70  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  69  43  70  43 /  30  60  30  20
Red River.......................  63  39  63  37 /  50  60  30  30
Angel Fire......................  64  37  65  32 /  70  60  40  40
Taos............................  72  42  74  40 /  30  60  20  20
Mora............................  66  44  69  43 /  50  70  30  40
Espanola........................  76  49  78  49 /  30  50  20  20
Santa Fe........................  72  52  74  52 /  50  60  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  74  49  78  48 /  50  50  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  56  81  54 /  40  40  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  57  82  55 /  40  40   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  54  84  51 /  30  40   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  55  83  53 /  40  40   5   5
Los Lunas.......................  82  53  85  48 /  30  40   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  80  54  83  53 /  30  40   5   5
Socorro.........................  82  56  86  55 /  20  40   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  50  75  51 /  60  50  20  10
Tijeras.........................  73  49  76  50 /  50  50  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  47  78  42 /  50  50  10  10
Clines Corners..................  69  48  73  47 /  50  70  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  75  52  77  52 /  40  50  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  77  54  78  55 /  40  70  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  67  49  69  50 /  60  70  20  20
Capulin.........................  72  49  72  51 /  30  40  20  30
Raton...........................  74  48  75  46 /  30  40  30  30
Springer........................  73  49  76  47 /  30  50  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  68  45  70  46 /  30  70  30  40
Clayton.........................  77  55  77  55 /  20  30  20  30
Roy.............................  73  52  73  53 /  20  60  20  30
Conchas.........................  77  54  79  57 /  20  70  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  76  53  78  55 /  20  70  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  79  58  80  60 /  20  60  20  30
Clovis..........................  76  57  76  58 /  20  60  30  30
Portales........................  77  58  77  59 /  20  60  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  78  57  81  59 /  20  60  30  30
Roswell.........................  81  59  83  61 /  20  60  20  30
Picacho.........................  74  55  79  57 /  30  70  20  20
Elk.............................  72  52  76  53 /  30  70  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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