Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212126
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system stalled over the Great Basin will
interact with abundant low level moisture already in place for
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms east of the
continental divide tonight. Storms will then return mainly along and
east of the central mountain chain Tuesday through Wednesday, then
across southeast areas Thursday; however, coverage will trend
downward each day as the upper low lifts northeastward across the
northern mountains and drier air filters over New Mexico from the
southwest. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across central and
eastern areas for the remainder of this afternoon and into the
evening, then again across the east on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
With the drier air will come warmer temperatures with highs reaching
above normal areawide during the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The closed upper level low pressure system stalled over the southern
Great Basin has created favorable dynamics for severe thunderstorms
over central parts of the forecast area this afternoon. The risk of
severe storms will spread onto the eastern plains this evening, then
return to eastern areas on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Storms
will be capable of producing over 1 inch of rain, large hail and
damaging winds.

The upper low will weaken as it lifts northeastward across the
northern Rockies through mid week, steering drier air over NM from
the southwest in the process. There will be a notable downtick in the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the west where
dry weather will return on Tuesday. Storms along and east of the
central mountain chain will become spottier and their wetting
footprints will decrease through mid week, with dry weather pretty
much areawide again on Friday.

During the coming weekend another upper level low pressure system
will move through the Great Basin from the west strengthening wind
and potentially increasing fire weather concerns over portions of New
Mexico. There will also be a risk of dryline thunderstorms across the
far eastern and especially southeastern plains each afternoon and
evening.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall have developed along
and east of the Cont Dvd this afternoon. This activity will spread
eastward across the Rio Grande Valley and into the eastern plains
through tonight. Meanwhile, much drier southwest flow has already
spread into far western NM today. This drier air will move east
toward the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday with breezy to locally windy
conditions. Widespread marginal critical fire weather is likely
along and west of the central mountain chain for several hours
Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, more showers and storms with locally
heavy rainfall will impact eastern NM.

Drier air will spread even farther east into central NM Wednesday as
an upper level trough lifts across the Great Basin. The coverage of
marginal critical fire weather however will decrease as relatively
lighter winds are expected for central and western NM. Eastern NM
will remain in the deeper moisture where showers and storms with
locally heavy rainfall continue.

A ridge will build over NM Thursday through Saturday and allow
temperatures to warm above normal for the entire area with very dry
air and light winds. Multiple days of single digit min humidity is
likely again for central and western NM with poor to fair overnight
recoveries.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A moderate to high impact period is expected for the next 12-18 hrs.
SHRA/TSRA has already begun developing along the Cont Dvd w/ strong
to locally severe storms likely. TSRA will develop over the remainder
of the central and western high terrain thru 20Z and move north-
northeast around 20 kt. Storms will organize into clusters and line
segments as the afternoon progresses. Any direct hit will be capable
of strong, erratic outflow winds to 45 kt, hail, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and brief heavy rain. The focus for TSRA will shift
into the eastern plains aft 02Z with more severe weather possible
thru 06Z before activity tapers to MVFR low cigs and patchy FG.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  81  47  83 /  10   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  43  75  41  78 /  40  20  20   5
Cuba............................  48  74  46  77 /  60  10  10   5
Gallup..........................  39  80  38  82 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  39  75  37  78 /  10   0   5   0
Grants..........................  41  79  38  82 /  20   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  42  75  41  78 /   5   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  51  84  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37  69  36  72 /  50  20  20  10
Los Alamos......................  53  72  52  76 /  70  20  20   5
Pecos...........................  51  70  51  74 /  80  40  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  46  69  44  73 /  70  30  20  10
Red River.......................  40  60  40  63 /  70  50  30  20
Angel Fire......................  32  65  30  69 /  80  50  40  20
Taos............................  43  74  41  78 /  60  20  20  10
Mora............................  43  67  43  73 /  80  40  40  20
Espanola........................  51  78  49  82 /  60  10  10   5
Santa Fe........................  53  72  52  77 /  80  20  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  51  77  49  82 /  70  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  82  53  85 /  50  10  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  84  55  87 /  40   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  85  52  88 /  40   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  83  53  87 /  40   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  86  49  88 /  30   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  56  83  53  86 /  50   5   5   0
Socorro.........................  57  87  55  89 /  30   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  76  51  80 /  60  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  51  78  50  82 /  50  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  44  80  42  83 /  60  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  48  73  48  77 /  70  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  52  78  52  81 /  60  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  55  79  55  83 /  60  10  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  49  72  50  76 /  80  40  20  20
Capulin.........................  49  71  50  76 /  50  30  30  20
Raton...........................  48  75  47  80 /  50  40  40  20
Springer........................  48  75  47  80 /  60  30  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  46  70  46  74 /  80  40  40  20
Clayton.........................  54  77  55  82 /  50  20  30  20
Roy.............................  51  72  52  77 /  70  20  30  20
Conchas.........................  57  79  57  84 /  60  30  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  55  77  55  81 /  60  30  30  20
Tucumcari.......................  60  81  60  85 /  60  30  40  30
Clovis..........................  57  77  58  82 /  60  30  40  30
Portales........................  58  78  60  84 /  60  30  40  30
Fort Sumner.....................  58  80  59  84 /  60  30  40  30
Roswell.........................  60  84  62  89 /  70  30  30  30
Picacho.........................  56  78  56  82 /  70  30  30  20
Elk.............................  52  75  52  81 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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