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491
FXUS63 KABR 071531 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1031 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The weather pattern will remain unsettled through Friday with
  periods of showers and thunderstorms.

- Below average temperatures can be expected through at least
  Friday, with perhaps a warming trend this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1026 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Low pressure centered over north central SD this morning will
continue to bring strong and gusty (40 mph+) westerly winds to
central/south central SD through the day. In fact, after looking
at the latest guidance/soundings/obs, decided to issue a Wind
Advisory for the southern portion of the CWA. Also seeing areas of
showers and light rain across north central SD under the surface
low. Expect additional development through the day and made some
small adjustments to PoPs to account for current and expected
trends. Temps today will generally remain in the 50s to low 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An area of strong low pressure continues to spin over western SD
this morning. Central and northeast SD should stay dry slotted for
most of the day with north central having the best chance (30-40%)
of seeing a shower. On the fringes of the showers, there have been
some impressive wind gusts (60 to 65 mph) in western SD. Not
expecting those to filter further into central SD unless there`s a
stray shower that could help enhance winds, but even upper level
winds are around 40 to 45 kts. Generally, expecting strongest winds
across south central SD this morning in the range of 35 to 45 mph
with perhaps a brief, localized gust to 50 mph. The lack of spatial
coverage and expected length of residence time resulted in the no-
headline decision this morning. However, H7 winds do pick up this
afternoon, so may need to reassess mixing potential based on how
observations pan out this morning.

The low weakens and continues to meander around the western SD/ND
border into Wednesday. As the upper low dives southeast Wednesday
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the region. Some of the storms may become strong in east central SD
Wednesday afternoon as the region is on the edge of an inverted sfc
trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday night, the upper level low is still making its way across
the region. During the day Thursday, the NAM, EC and Canadian all
show the upper level low splitting in half with the western half
moving back west to be absorbed by a low over southern NV while the
eastern half continues to move southeast towards KS and OK. The last
few runs, the Canadian and EC have been showing a shortwave coming
down from Canada Friday afternoon and now the GFS has started to
show that as well. This will move fairly quickly across the area.
The rest of the period will have a generally northwest flow pattern.

Rain chances decrease overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning then
Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry, for the most part. Areas
along and east of the James River have a 15 to 35 percent chance for
some showers Friday afternoon. Slight chances (15 to 25 percent)
return Monday afternoon and last through the end of the period.

For the most part, winds will be around normal, but Friday could
have some gusts of 30 to 35 mph as that shortwave makes its way
across the area. Temperatures through the period will be on an
upward swing with highs in the upper 70s to start next work week,
about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs will prevail today. Winds will shift to
the west as low pressure weakens and wobbles along the western
ND/SD border. Winds will gust at 30 to 40 kts before diminishing
this evening.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Wise