-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
175
FXUS63 KABR 111716
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1216 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures (about 10-15 degrees Saturday/5-10 degrees
  Sunday) with dry conditions through the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return to the area Tuesday with the
  highest probability of rainfall occurring Tuesday afternoon
  through Wednesday morning (30-70%).

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

No updates to the forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An area of low pressure crossing southern Canada today will bring
much above average temperatures into the CWA. 925 and 850 mb
temperatures soar to around the 90th percentile today, which
combined with westerly winds should produce highs in the upper 70s
to the mid 80s. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees above
average for this time of year. The HREF does suggest some mid and
high level cloudiness this afternoon, possibly limiting the overall
heating. The surface low pressure system should be located over
northern MN later tonight with increasing westerly winds possible
over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. The NBM shows a
40-60% chance wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger over the favored
downslope winds area.

On Sunday, a frontal boundary will slide southward across the area,
bringing northerly winds and slightly, but still have average
temperatures. The frontal boundary may stall along I-90 during the
afternoon hours and could become the focal point for weak
convection. CAMS mostly support isolated showers and thunderstorms
across south central SD, mainly after 21Z. Depending on model used,
another batch of showers and thunderstorms may track southeastward
from MT and into the far western CWA near 23-0Z Monday. Overall
though, Sunday appears dry for most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Will see a fairly progressive upper level pattern in the extended
period. A shortwave trough will exit the region Sunday night, to be
replaced by ridging Monday and Monday night. A more zonal flow
develops Tuesday and Tuesday night before another shortwave trough
tracks across the area Wednesday and Thursday. Will see a brief
period of northwest flow Thursday night, with ridging developing on
Friday.

At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the
north and low pressure to the south Sunday night before the high to
the north drops over the area Monday and Monday night. The high gets
pushed east on Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks across the
Rockies. The frontal boundary associated with the low will track
across the CWA Tuesday night and Wednesday, and looks to be the
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity. The front exits to the
east Wednesday night, with high pressure bringing a return to mainly
dry conditions Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s on
Monday and Tuesday, in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday, in the mid
60s to the lower 70s Thursday, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s
Friday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to the lower 50s
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. West winds will shift to north
Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Connelly