733
FXUS63 KABR 290550 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1250 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues with chances for rain continuing
  through Monday morning, then again Tuesday and Thursday.
  Additional rainfall amounts through Monday will range from a
  tenth to half an inch with highest amounts north of Hwy 212.

- Less moisture is expected with the other systems during the week.

- Below to near normal temperatures through the extended.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Seeing a more organized area of rain now setting up over central
South Dakota, with more scattered type activity approaching the
eastern CWA from the south. CAMs indicating the rain will come to
an end sometime Monday morning as the low it is associated with
tracks off to the northeast. No changes made to winds or
temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

As the sfc low pushes into Minnesota this evening, southern portions
of the forecast area may briefly dry out, but wraparound moisture
will move into north central SD and intensify precip late tonight.
Another quarter to half an inch of rain is forecast north of Hwy 212
tonight into Monday with a tenth to a quarter south of 212. The sfc
low and the upper level low will exit toward the Great Lakes on
Monday with rain clearing out by early afternoon.

Weak upper ridging builds in late Monday from the west making for a
15 to 20 degree temperature gradient across the area. Well below
normal highs in the upper 40s are forecast across the east while
west river should see mid 60s. The next low begins to move off the
Rockies and into the northern Plains late Monday night. Expect
little rainfall from this system until later on Tuesday. While there
are some low pops for late Monday night (25% or less), WPC QPF has
been reduced to zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Tuesday with frontal
boundary crossing the CWA, bringing a 40-80 percent chance of
showers. The eastern half of the CWA still has the best potential of
seeing pcpn, including thunderstorms. As of now, CAPE values appear
best southeast of this CWA, but will need to monitor trends for a
possible low end severe weather event over east central SD Tuesday
afternoon. Increasing west to northwesterly winds will move into the
CWA behind the frontal boundary with the 25th and 75th percentile 30
to 38 knots for KMBG. Buffer soundings from the NAM indicates less
mixing winds, with a peak gust around 25 knots, while the GFS has a
peak gust of 39 knots. Even further west, the NAM is not overly
excited about winds exceeding advisory levels.

After a period of mostly dry conditions Tuesday night through most
of Wednesday, the weather pattern becomes active once again with
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Wednesday night through
Thursday. Beyond Thursday, models disagree with the placement of an
upper level trough Friday into Saturday. One cluster suggests the
trough will be located over the Great Lakes region with
northwesterly flow across northern plains. This may cause a drier
forecast. Meanwhile, cluster two suggests the trough will be located
over the region with cooler temperatures and pcpn possible. Forecast
confidence with regards to weather conditions at the end of the work
week is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Periods of -RA/RA and -DZ/DZ will continue across the region
overnight, with precipitation gradually coming to an end on
Monday. MVFR/IFR CIGs will continue, although a few breaks in
these lower CIGs are possible across KPIR/KMBG. VSBY may drop to
MVFR at times in areas of precipitation or BR. Monday afternoon,
lower clouds are forecast to depart central SD, making way for VFR
conditions across KPIR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TMT